Lilongwe- FLEAT Malawi

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March 2024

Energy

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Richard Worthington Research Presented

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Climate Change and Malawi �Impacts and Challenges�

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Climate Change and Malawi �Impacts and Challenges�

• Malawi (inland Africa) is experiencing climate change with an observed rate of warming of at least double the global average
• Malawi lost 13.5% GDP per capita due to observed climate change 1991 – 2010.

“Malawi has experienced an increase in the frequency, intensity and magnitude over the last two decades of extreme weather events. Malawi is particularly vulnerable to floods, droughts and strong winds associated with tropical cyclones. Malawi’s land and natural resources are heavily utilized and prone to environmental degradation… particularly under threat from increasing human and livestock population pressures, and the expanding of agricultural production to marginal areas.”- Minister of of Forestry and Natural Resources, Nancy Tembo:

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Climate Change and Malawi �Impacts and Challenges�

• Malawi is increasingly prone to extreme weather events, including tropical cyclones (coming over Mozambique from the Indian Ocean) bringing destructive winds and flooding.
• Climate change is making high levels of food insecurity and malnutrition worse and taking a toll on infrastructure.
• Poverty, weak governance, and entrenched corruption persist, and Malawian citizens continue to struggle to access public services and meet basic needs.
• Agriculture forms of the basis of the economy (38% of GDP, over 85% of labour force)

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Overall Emissions Trends by sector (in GgCO2eq – a Gg is the same as a Kt - Kilotonne) ��

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The Just Energy Transition and Malawi Policies �

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Policies

• The National Climate Change Management Policy (NCCMP, 2016): strategic direction for Malawi’s climate change interventions, guide for integrating climate change in development planning, etc.
• The Environment Management Act (2017) creates the governance and authority mandate on environment and climate change management.
• The National Energy Policy (NEP, 2018), is broadly aspirational, good intentions, framework for increased access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, efficient energy
• The Renewable Energy Strategy (2017), no plan or target for grid-scale RE development
• National Electrification Strategy and Action Plan (NESAP) established 2019, estimates that about 116,000 connections will need to be added per year to achieve the NEP access goals.

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While climate policies and development strategies do not explicitly invoke the concept of just transition, various aspects of the National Agricultural Policy 2016 and Malawi Vision 2063 promote changes aligned with the concept. For example, the greater inclusion of smallholder farmers in planning processes and improved participation by youth in climate smart agriculture practices. The NDC’s emphasis on improving community participation in seed selection, storage, and management could help to address existing economic and social inequalities regarding seed access, increasingly too costly for most smallholder farmers.

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Introduced in 2021, Malawi Vision 2063 is an ambitious vision

- 6% GDP growth rate (lower-middle income country by 2030)

President Chakwera said in 2021:

Malawi has put in place legislative and sectoral frameworks and strategies to integrate environment and climate change management in socio-economic development activities (MDGS III, Malawi Vision 2063)

Climate Change Fund (not yet a functioning entity)

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The Just Energy Transition and Malawi Policies 

2018: Access

• Government reported national average access to electricity at 11%; at 2.4% in rural areas and 47% in urban areas.
• World Bank figures show that the number of people without electricity increased by about 3% between 2010 and 2020.
• The availability of electricity per capita is the lowest in the world at about 70 kWh per annum in 2021

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2022: Production

IRENA estimated a total installed capacity of about 700 MW, consisting of:

19% fossil fueled plants,

58% hydro,

21% solar (including small-scale off-grid PV) and

2% bioenergy;

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• Malawi’s Renewable Energy Strategy adopted in 2017 report 89% of Malawi’s total energy supply was biomass, most of which is unsustainably sourced. 85% of that is household
• The International Renewable Energy Agency reports 83% RE in 2015, and down to 75% in 2020 (biomass and a little hydropower)
• Coal provides on 3% of Malawi’s electricity

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• Biomass is an extremely inefficient fuel source. Therefore: residential consumption accounts for more than half of total primary energy input, even though business and industry express greater demand for useful energy, through the use of modern, more efficient energy carriers.

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Recently signed solar Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) in Malawi have pricing of 8.4¢/kWh, already significantly lower than the 2016 IRP estimates (11¢/kWh), but is still significantly higher than US costs (4¢/kWh in 2016)

With the maturing of the market and ongoing hardware cost reduction, Malawi is highly likely to follow the international trends for cost reduction in solar PV and other renewables

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The Just Energy Transition and Malawi Policies - RE

Expansion of the electricity system utilising Malawi’s solar energy resource has massive potential:

• Socio-economic benefits (access to electricity as a right, realized through appropriate subsidies)
• Address energy poverty and gender inequalities
• Support for social-ownership and energy democracy
• Reduce ecosystem degradation driven by unsustainable use of biomass as fuel�

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• Provision of electricity can enable adaptation to the impacts of climate change
• Access to modern communications can reduce vulnerability, improve disaster risk management, and facilitation of public participation in sustainable development planning
• There is a lack of coordination and coherence amongst government departments and programmes (absence of formal and integrated process for energy planning).

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Malawi - an Energy SWOT analysis

What are Malawi's energy and climate policy/situational strengths?

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What are Malawi's energy and climate policy/situational weaknesses?

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What are Malawi's energy and climate policy/situational opportunities?

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What are Malawi's energy and climate policy/situational threats?

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What does your faith say about energy and climate change? Just transition?

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Recommendations

• Strengthening democracy, particularly the transparency and accountability of government policy, planning and procurement.  Energy development and land use management in particular should be subject to formal planning processes with public participation.
• Emphasis on private sector profit maximization must be controlled and regulated
• Government provision of free basic electricity (systematic approach in this service)
• Rapid development of capacity within local government, strengthened oversight/ coordination by national government
• Synergies between adaptation and mitigation responses.

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Malawi’s excellent solar resource holds the greatest potential to achieve energy access and for expansion of commercial energy supply, consistent with a just energy transition that provides employment growth and opportunities for community participation in decentralised development. While the pricing of solar PV has not declined as quickly in Malawi as elsewhere in the region, in combination with development of the grid and storage capacity (e.g. batteries and pumped storage), renewable energy offers the least-cost pathway to sustainable electricity supply.

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