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Creating Critical Thinking in our Students through �System Dynamics Thinking

George P. Richardson

Emeritus Professor

University at Albany

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Overview

  • Why graph?
  • Why map?
  • Why model?
  • Two passes at these questions:
    1. Focusing on system dynamics thinking
    2. Focusing on the larger issues of education excellence

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Why graph?

  • That is, why draw Behavior Over Time graphs?
  • Which is to say, Why think dynamically?
  • Puts events in context. Moves from events to patterns over time.
    • A baby is born
    • A grandmother dies
    • Famine
    • Population growth

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G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Seeing Dynamics in a Dramatic Event…�Can you graph 9/11 over time?

(Source: Christian Science Monitor, 27 Sept 2001)

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Moving From Events to Patterns of Behavior (graphs illustrative only)

Tensions in the Middle East

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Peace efforts

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Seeing patterns in events over time:�The Borton Boys

  • First graders Alex, Daniel, and Nathan, best friends, but always getting into arguments and getting angry.
  • Until ...

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  • Find the Borton boys talking about their loop at http://www.watersfoundation.org/webed/mod9/mod9-3-1.html

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

6

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Why map? Visual thinking!

  • Adding visual support to story-telling.
  • Adding stocks (accumulations and system memories) to expose stuff that persists over time.
  • Feedback thinking
    • Uncovering reinforcing and balancing subplots in causal stories.
  • Telling more complex stories based on intuitions about interacting feedback loops.

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G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

7

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Environmental Connection Circle

A diagram on the wall of a second grade classroom in the Ritenaur School District in St. Louis.

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

8

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Resulting Causal Loop Diagram

This CLD was posted alongside the Connection Circle.

Excellent practice to try to pull out one or more well-formed feedback loops!

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

9

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Adding Helpful Concepts

Water vapor

Clouds

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Rearranging a bit...

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

11

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Showing Stocks�An important step here, if students are ready

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Representing the Actions as Flows

The links are pipes, not causal influences!

Not a reinforcing loop!

The total stock of water does not grow; it just moves around.

Water in

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

13

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Environmental Connection Circle

Not a causal diagram. Rather, a flow diagram! But impossible to see in this form.

Maps often need refinement in order to make insights pop!

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

14

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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“Which of these things is not like the other?”

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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These arrows mean ‘and then’

  • We start with some understandings of the problem and its systemic context, and then we conceptualize (map) the system.

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  • Then we build the beginnings of a model, which we then test to understand it.

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  • Then we reformulate, or reconceptualize, or revise our understandings, or do some of all three, and then continue…

This is the system dynamics iterative process

for achieving system dynamics insights.

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

16

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Arrows here are flows of material

The words here represent stocks, the arrows represent flows.

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This is not a causal diagram.

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This is a view of the “carbon cycle.”

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G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Only this one is a causal loop

This loop tells a very compelling and important story. Prejudice reinforces itself.

It leads to Discrimination, Lack of Opportunities, little Achievement and more Prejudice.

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

18

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Why map with stocks?

  • Tell more correct stories
  • Tell more insightful stories
  • Grow in the understanding of the importance of accumulations, and how they are different

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  • Apartment buildings
  • Momentum
  • Pages in a report
  • Distance traveled on a trip
  • Memories

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  • Muscles
  • Practiced musical abilities
  • CO2 in atmosphere
  • Capital stocks in an economy
  • Self-esteem

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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An Insightful Stock in Terrorism

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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An Insightful Stock in Terrorism

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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An Insightful Stock in Terrorism

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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An Insightful Stock in Terrorism

Stock of Martyrs.

What is the inflow?

What is the outflow?

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Why graph, map and model for systems understandings?

  • Move from thinking about events and decisions to thinking over time
  • Anticipate that long-term policy results are always different from short-term policy results
    • Worse before better – Better before worse
  • Understand that complex systems compensate for well-intentioned policies, and be able to uncover and communicate compensating feedback loops
  • Understand that real systemic understanding is hard.

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G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Focusing on larger issues of �education excellence

  • Why graph for education excellence?
  • Why map for education excellence?
  • Why model for education excellence?

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Why graph for education excellence?

  • First graders’ graphs of story dynamics build understandings that later emerge as x- and y-axes in coordinate systems.
  • Sixth graders’ graphs of history dynamics deepens understanding of historical pressures and sequences
  • High school students’ graphs of phenomena surrounding current events puts those events in context
  • Graphs in history, English, biology, civics, and so on reinforce graphing in mathematics. Slope becomes real.

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

26

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Why map for education excellence?

  • We are bringing into the modern classroom classic patterns of powerful circular thinking that have existed for centuries.
  • We are making feedback thinking accessible to kids (and their parents), and Society needs it!
  • We are exposing the mechanisms of growth, stability, oscillations, and other dynamics.
  • We are exposing the mechanisms of compensating feedback and policy resistance.

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

27

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Why model for education excellence?

  • Remember our distinctions:
    • Why should learners “exercise” models?
    • Why should learners build models?
  • Exercising models means
    • Simulating a given model repeatedly under various circumstances
    • Creating hypotheses, changing parameters, predicting behavior, observing simulated behavior, repeating, ... all with a given model
  • Building models means
    • Create a simulatable model following the complete modeling process from conceptualization through equations and parameterization
    • Exercisizing the model thoroughly and reformulating to improve it.

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Why system dynamics thinking and modeling �for excellence in education?

  • Better thinking at every level, K to 12 and beyond
  • More understanding at every level
  • More engagement at every level
  • “Learner-directed” learning
  • Better preparation for “systems citizenship”
    • Delays in policy outcomes: the right things take a long time
    • Worse-before-better, better before worse, the long-term is sure to be different from the short-term
    • Compensating feedback leading to policy resistance or outright defeat of favorite policies

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G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

29

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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A compensating feedback loop causes the plan to fail.

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany

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Why do any of this?

It’s this simple.

And this complex: Feedback loops are at the core

of all the endogenous dynamics of all living systems.

You are giving young people the keys to the kingdom.

G. P. Richardson

CLE Conference, Babson College, July 2012

32

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany