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Please view the current Climate Restoration Update, July 2022

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I apologize for old links to this deck from 2020.

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Sincerely,

Peter Fiekowsky

23 July, 2022

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

Peter Fiekowsky

pfieko@gmail.com

Foundation for Climate Restoration Founder & Chairman Emeritus

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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Climate restoration by 2050 is feasible. The field is making remarkable progress as of 2021.

Climate restoration is not geoengineering, just as forest restoration is not geoengineering.

1. Restoring CO₂ to levels humanity has survived—below 300 ppm—by 2050 is possible. Nature has removed massive amounts of CO2 ten times over the last million years.
2. Nature uses two “silver bullets” to reduce CO2. Nature sequesters CO₂ on massive scales, mainly into limestone and ocean biocarbon. Human-made, commercial versions of these are are beginning to scale: synthetic limestone and ocean fertilization, which can yield robust fisheries. These two enterprises alone can restore CO2 to safe levels within 30 years.
3. Methane oxidation is also needed now. Doubling natural atmospheric methane oxidation could restore warming to 2005 levels this decade and protect us from a permafrost methane burst.

We have the technology & finance available now. �We need investment committed to climate restoration for the flourishing of humanity.

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Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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1. What is climate restoration? Who is promoting it?

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• Is climate restoration possible?

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• The roadmap—Five solutions.

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• Solutions: commercial vs. government

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• Status of scalable, viable solutions

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• Next steps

WHAT IS CLIMATE RESTORATION?

Climate Restoration Update: December 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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CLIMATE RESTORATION is the goal and associated actions to restore atmospheric CO2 to levels humans have survived long-term, below 300 ppm.

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FOR WHOM? For humanity. Nature and the planet will do very well when humanity disappears.

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BY WHEN? By 2050, while we still can. If we commit now, it is likely that our society will survive 30 years to complete the job.

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CLIMATE RESTORATION IS RESTORATION, NOT A SCIENTIFIC EXPERIMENT OR PREDICTION. It is a joint project. Successful projects have a clear, time-bound goal.

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CLIMATE RESTORATION MEANS GETTING CO2 BACK BELOW 300 PPM BY 2050.

IS IT GEOENGINEERING?

Climate Restoration Update: December 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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GEOENGINEERING is defined as “deliberate, large-scale intervention in natural systems to counteract climate change” (Oxford University, 2018). That is also a partial definition of climate restoration, which is “The goal and associated actions to restore atmospheric CO2 to levels humans have survived long-term, below 300 ppm.”

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HOW COULD SOMEONE OPPOSE CLIMATE RESTORATION?

• “It is impossible-it has never been done. Resources should not be risked on doing it.”
• “Humanity doesn’t need or deserve CO2 levels we have survived before-we acted badly and should let nature take her course”. Favoring a climate for humans is not scientific, it’s “speciesist”.
• “We could make a mistake and damage an ecosystem while saving humanity.”

These claims have been attributed to “others”. We know of no one actually making them.

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ALMOST EVERYONE WANTS TO RESTORE THE CLIMATE

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CLIMATE RESTORATION IS BECOMING THE CLIMATE GOAL

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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POPE FRANCIS:

In agreement with climate scientists, the Holy Father warns, “Climate restoration is of utmost importance, since we are in the midst of a climate emergency. We are running out of time, as our children and young people have reminded us.”

(Catholic Sentinel)

GUARDIAN:

(11/13/20) Hitting net zero is not enough—we must restore the climate

Signed by Jim Hansen, Michael Mann, Rick Parnell et al

THE WASHINGTON POST:

(9/20/20) Stopping climate change could cost less than fighting covid-19

NEW YORK TIMES:

(11/1/20) Climate restoration

CLIMATE RESTORATION IS POSSIBLE

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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• RESTORATION REQUIRES REMOVING A TRILLION TONS OF CO₂ to get below 300 ppm.
• NATURE HAS DONE IT MANY TIMES We can, too.
• IT’S ONLY IMPOSSIBLE WHILE WE DON’T TRY, AND WE HAVEN’T TRIED UNTIL NOW because we thought “they said” it was impossible. It IS possible—it’s been done by nature.
• SUCCESS REQUIRES A SPECIFIC, TIME-BOUND GOAL: Get CO₂ back to proven safe levels below 300 ppm by 2050.
• MITIGATION HAS WORKED UNTIL NOW, BUT NO LONGER. This is the first time in human history we’ve needed a specific climate goal—that’s why discussing it seems strange.

NATURE HAS REMOVED MASSIVE CO₂ TEN TIMES IN THE LAST MILLION YEARS. WE CAN DO IT TOO.

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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Carbon was stored into the ocean largely by phytoplankton growing with sufficient iron.

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CO2 was released again when ocean currents changed at the end of ice ages.

NATURE USES TWO CDR METHODS (YES—SILVER BULLETS)

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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LIMESTONE (E.G. WHITE CLIFFS OF DOVER)

From organism shells over millions of years

• 99.9% of earth’s carbon is held in limestone deposited on the seafloor

OCEAN PHOTOSYNTHESIS, which corresponds to iron availability. The ocean holds 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere, and 20 times more than is held in land ecosystems.

Alaska Department of Fishand Game

Phytoplankton (algae) and resulting fish

NET-ZERO EMISSIONS (DRAWDOWN) IS NOT ENOUGH

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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While the “net-zero by 2050” Paris goal holds CO2 at levels dinosaurs survived, Climate Restoration restores CO2 to levels humanity has actually survived long-term.

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To ensure our survival, we must remove a trillion tons of CO₂ to get CO₂ below 300 ppm by 2050.

From Foster, Gavin L., Dana L. Royer, and Daniel J. Lunt. "Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years." Nature Communications 8 (2017): 14845.

WE ARE NOW ON THE ROAD TO RESTORATION BY 2050

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Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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Top line shows predictable emission reduction.

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OPR (OIF), Limestone, Seaweed show CO2 removal projects.

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CO₂ Emission

OPR CO₂ Removal

Synthetic limestone

Seaweed

CLIMATE RESTORATION LEADS TO ZERO WARMING BY 2100

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Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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The 60 gt CO₂ / year removal leads to CO₂ levels below 300 ppm by 2050; stabilizing near 275 ppm after 2150.

Those CO₂ levels lead to warming peaking below 1.5℃ and returning to 0℃ by 2100.

If peak warming for 15 years causes problems, solar radiation management could be considered.

SURVIVAL DEPENDS ON ACHIEVING 300 PPM CO₂ BY 2050

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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Atmospheric methane oxidation: Doubling the natural oxidation rate of methane would lower CO2-equivalent (CO2eq) by 42 ppm.^[1] In process.

Restored photosynthesis in the ocean, triggered by iron dust (iron fertilization): Sequester carbon in the deep ocean. This is how nature causes ice ages. In process.

Growing kelp and sargassum: Alternative to iron fertilization. Kelp and sargassum photosynthesize quickly, and can be sunk to sequester the CO2. In process.

Synthetic limestone: Replacing quarried rock with synthetic limestone for paving and building. In process.

Accelerate emissions reduction: Fast investment in wind and solar to replace fossil fuel and achieve zero emissions by 2040, instead of 2050.

1] Iron salt aerosol (ISA) is a natural catalyst that oxidizes atmospheric methane. Its concentration can be increased to double the natural oxidation rate.

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COST of 5 CLIMATE RESTORATION PATHWAYS

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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Accelerate clean energy build-up 20% faster than Paris agreement�Cost: $100 / ton CO₂e avoided, or $300 billion / year (Harvard 2018)

Doubling natural methane oxidation by 2025 would cost an estimated �$1 billion / year, to be paid by the ocean shipping industry, which would then profit from the carbon market.

Cost: $0.30 / ton CO₂e Profit: $5/ton CO2 from carbon offsets

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500 ocean “pastures” 100 km diameter, restored at $1 million each. Paid for by fishing industry & government ministries as fisheries revive.

Cost: $0.01 / ton CO₂e Profit: $5/ton CO2 from fishing revenue

5,000 synthetic limestone plants, paid for by cement industry

Cost: $30 / ton CO₂e Profit: $5/ton CO2 from the sale of aggregate

500,000 1 km² kelp arrays + similar sargassum capture & sinking, 50% of seaweed sold and 50% sunk

Cost: $60 / ton CO₂e Profit: $30/ton CO2 from sale of seaweed, fuel and high-value chemicals.

KELP AND SARGASSUM

SYNTHETIC LIMESTONE

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METHANE OXIDATION, DOUBLING NATURAL OXIDATION BY 2025

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RESTORED OCEAN PHOTOSYNTHESIS

30% FASTER TRANSITION TO NET ZERO:

2040 INSTEAD OF 2050

ATMOSPHERIC METHANE OXIDATION IS PRACTICAL

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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• Methane emission is widespread. Sources are varied and dispersed, thus emissions cannot effectively be reduced.

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• Natural processes oxidize atmospheric methane into CO2 and water.
• We know how to double the natural rate of methane oxidation by increasing natural iron-salt aerosols in the lower atmosphere..
• This alone could restore total warming (forcing) back to 2005 levels, and ensure against possible methane burst ecosystem damage.

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ATMOSPHERIC METHANE OXIDATION IS PRACTICAL

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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• Methane concentration in the air is uniform within 6% globally. Oxidation can be performed in any convenient location, not just at the source— even when if and when Arctic methane bursts occur.

TIMELINE:

• 2021: Test technology for scale-up; develop funding and monitoring.
• 2022-2023: Take to full scale in case an Arctic permafrost methane burst starts this decade.

CLIMATE RESTORATION IS POSSIBLE BY 2050

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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• Climate restoration requires removing roughly a trillion tons of CO2 by 2050.
• This low cost carbon removal would achieve net-zero emission by 2027-2030.

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TIMELINE:

• Build CDR capacity from 2020 to 2030 (and reducing emissions)
• Remove 50 Gt CO₂ per year from 2031 to 2050 �(net, including emissions)

SOLUTIONS: COMMERCIAL

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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COMMERCIAL SOLUTIONS: Sell valuable products in which CO₂ removal (CDR) at restoration-scale is a byproduct.

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EXPLANATION: Warming occured from businesses selling valuable products (heat and transportation) with a byproduct of CO₂ emission. CDR products do the opposite: They have a byproduct of CO₂ removal.

COMMERCIAL PRODUCTS THAT CAN SCALE TO 50 GT CO2 / YEAR PERMANENT REMOVAL:

• Limestone for building (in process, investments made)
• Fishery restoration via ocean pasture restoration with iron (tested in 2012; in process, investments needed)
• Seaweed (in process, investments needed)

SYNTHETIC LIMESTONE

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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• LIMESTONE IS 44% CO2 BY WEIGHT (CaCO₃)
• LIMESTONE PRODUCTION IS EXOTHERMIC. LOW ENERGY OYSTERS �DO IT.
• TODAY’S AGGREGATE MARKET IS 55 BILLION TONS/YEAR, DOUBLING EVERY 12 YEARS. By 2030, synthetic limestone could sell 110 Gt of rock, sequestering 50 Gt CO₂ / year, paid for by construction projects globally.
• BLUE PLANET LTD IS OPENING THEIR COMMERCIAL PLANT IN EARLY 2021 IN SF AREA.

¤ Initial plants get CO₂ from power plants.

¤ Expansion will require CO₂ capture from air. The process is similar to Carbon Engineering— which produces CaCO₃ in an intermediate step; Blue Planet sells the CaCO₃. This eliminates energy intensive later processing steps, and directly produces a valuable product (aggregate) with a trillion-dollar market and permanent sequestration.

¤ Major visionary funding from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and others has started the scale-up.

OCEAN RESTORATION / FISHERY RESTORATION / IRON FERTILIZATION

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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• NATURE’S METHOD FOR REDUCING CO2 BY 120 PPM (WHICH HAPPENS BEFORE ICE AGES)
• DEMONSTRATED AT SCALE IN 2012
• LOCALIZED & INTERMITTENT

¤ Never “whole basin” or continuous

• ALSO CALLED

¤ Ocean pasture restoration

¤ Ocean seeding

• FINANCED BY FISH SALES

¤ 2012 Alaska test produced over

$500 million in fish revenue

• OPTIMIZATION REQUIRED

¤ To maximize carbon removal

¤ To maximize fishery production

• PLANS TO REACH 50 GT CO₂ / YEAR BY 2029

SEAWEED PRODUCTION

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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• KELP AND ITS CLOSE RELATIVE SARGASSUM HAVE THE MOST EFFICIENT

PHOTOSYNTHESIS OF ANY PLANT.

Using 2% of the ocean could sequester 50 Gt CO₂ / year.

• HALF THE SEAWEED WOULD BE HARVESTED FOR PROCESSING and sale and half sunk to the deep ocean for sequestration
• C-COMBINATOR AND CLIMATE FOUNDATION are working on seaweed fertilization, growing, harvesting and processing.
• INITIAL SCALEUP IS PLANNED FOR 2021

MITIGATION SOLUTIONS: GOVERNMENT

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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• GOVERNMENT SOLUTIONS: Government pays companies to remove GHG pollutants.
• LOGIC: Warming was accomplished by businesses. Therefore the reverse, carbon removal, should be managed by public funding for public benefit.
• PUBLICLY FUNDED SOLUTIONS, AND ESTIMATED ANNUAL COST FOR 50 GT CO2 / YEAR

¤ Direct air capture (DAC) $5-$10 trillion / year. Now funded for oil extraction.

¤ Ocean alkalinization $5 trillion / year (concept stage)

¤ Electrochemical CDR from seawater $2-$3 trillion / year (concept stage)

¤ Trillion trees (cannot scale to 50 Gt CO₂ / year), not permanent storage

¤ Soil carbon (cannot scale to 50 Gt CO₂ / year), unknown permanence

SCALABLE, VIABLE SOLUTIONS ARE PROGRESSING

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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• SYNTHETIC LIMESTONE: First commercial plant starts operation in Q3-Q4 2021.
• OCEAN FERTILIZATION / FISHERY RESTORATION: Demonstrated in 2012, several implementations planned for 2022, funded for fishery restoration.
• KELP / SARGASSUM: C-Combinator and Climate Foundation are developing projects for 2022. Funding is expanding in 2021.

SOLUTIONS SUMMARY

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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• GOVERNMENT FUNDED PATHWAYS: �such as DAC, alkalinization, and trillion �trees have strong support for net-zero emissions’ 4% of climate restoration.

¤ There are no known serious strategies for budgeting the $5 trillion / year required for restoration on these paths.

¤ These projects are not designed to achieve 300 ppm by 2050 in public documents. Their ability to restore the climate is only implied.

• COMMERCIAL PRODUCT PATHWAYS: based on nature-based solutions provide three redundant pathways to 300 ppm by 2050. They are all scaling up in 2021. They require minimal policy support.

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-Advantages:

• Pathways are tested: Used by nature for carbon sequestration over geologic time.
• Technologies are ready to scale and optimize.
• Financing is available now.

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-Advantages:

• Pathways have peer-reviewed science
• Public R&D support has produced wide interest
• Consistent with Paris goals of net-zero by 2050

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MYTHS TO REVISE

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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“THERE ARE NO SILVER BULLETS, ONLY SILVER BUCKSHOT."

NATURE HAS TWO SILVER BULLETS FOR MASSIVE CO₂ REMOVAL: LIMESTONE & OCEAN PHOTOSYNTHESIS. WE SHOULD USE THEM FIRST.

“INFORMATION FOR DECISION MAKERS”

CAN YOU NAME ONE SPECIFIC DECISION MAKER FOR THE CLIMATE?

“SCIENCE-BASED POLICY”

WE NEED ENGINEERING-BASED POLICY TO RESTORE THE CLIMATE. CLIMATE SCIENCE IN 1900 PREDICTED TODAY’S CLIMATE EMERGENCY. KNOWLEDGE (SCIENCE) IS GOOD. GOAL-DIRECTED ACTION IS CRITICAL.

“WE FIRST NEED TO �REDUCE EMISSIONS.”

POPULATION IS CAUSE AND SOLUTION

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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You make the difference. Small families are good for the climate.

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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A SMALL FAMILY LIVES BETTER

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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• Having one fewer child makes 100 times more climate impact than becoming vegan

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• With average fertility of 1.5
• the global population in 2100 will be sustainable.
• Fewer young families will almost eliminate climate migration
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• Spread the message: Small families are good for the climate.

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Lancet: Vollset, et al 2020

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CALL TO ACTION

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN SHOULD ENDORSE THE GOAL OF CLIMATE RESTORATION FOR HUMANITY FLOURISHING

• US and the UN should endorse the goal of climate restoration for humanity flourishing. People want it. A specific goal is critical to success.
• NASA and NOAA should model climate restoration. How quickly will hurricanes, floods, droughts, and weather return to normal after reaching 300 ppm by 2050?
• Environmental groups should focus on climate restoration as the top-level goal to empower their preferred pathways.

Climate Restoration Update: November 2020

Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

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Michael Stokes