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From code to community

Implementing a flexible generative nowcasting framework

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Let’s start with the code

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What is Epinowcast?

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A package, an ecosystem, and a community project

(sounds like a good start to a joke)

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The package

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A short introduction to the reporting triangle

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Slide by Johannes Bracher

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Slide by Johannes Bracher

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It’s a framework for the general case of generative hierarchical nowcasts

not “a” model

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From Adrian Lison @ETHzurich

EpiNow2

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All by:

  • Strata: space, location, age, strata
  • Time-varying
  • Covariates

with partial pooling

From Sebastian Funk

Reporting Triangle

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Standardised pre and postprocessing

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The ecosystem

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It’s all about delays all the way down

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Led by Sam Brand primarycensored.epinowcast.org

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Led by Adam Howes: epidist.epinowcast.org

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Slide by Johannes Bracher

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Led by Kaitlyn Johnson baselinenowcast.epinowcast.org

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Slide by Johannes Bracher

?

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The community

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This is really hard and there is a lot to know

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It is important to get it as right as possible

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We don’t all need to know all of it

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Shall we work together?

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Monthly seminars co-organised by Kelly Charniga

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This is a bit aspirational in some ways

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but not in others

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Seminar averages 15+ attendees

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https://nfidd.github.io/nfidd/

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A package, an ecosystem, and a community project

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So why do you keep talking about Julia?

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Composability

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Epinowcast is a monolith

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epidist piggy backs on brms using code generation

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EpiAware.jl