The Electoral College: Who Has The Power?

​

IMATYC Talk, October 15, 2021

​

Curtis Mitchell

Kirkwood Community College

Cedar Rapids, IA

curtis.mitchell@kirkwood.edu

Talk Outline

1. Overview and poll (https://forms.gle/u8YfJNtTAuuTJvCT6)
2. History of the Electoral College (origins, how it works today)
3. Analyzing power in the Electoral College
4. Future of the Electoral College (arguments for and against, options)
5. Using this material in the classroom
6. Questions

​

The EC in the Constitution

Key Excerpts:

​

2: Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress…

​

3: The Electors shall meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two Persons, of whom one at least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves… The Person having the greatest Number of Votes shall be the President, if such Number be a Majority of the whole Number of Electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such Majority, and have an equal Number of Votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately chuse by Ballot one of them for President; and if no Person have a Majority, then from the five highest on the List the said House shall in like Manner chuse the President... In every Case, after the Choice of the President, the Person having the greatest Number of Votes of the Electors shall be the Vice President…

​

4: The Congress may determine the Time of chusing the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States.

Federalist #68 (A. Hamilton)

• Presidential selection by “men chosen by the people for the special purpose.”
• “A small number of persons, selected by their fellow-citizens from the general mass, will be most likely to possess the information and discernment required” to avoid a candidate with “talents for low intrigue, and the little arts of popularity.”
• Avoid “cabal, intrigue, and corruption” and secure executive independence.

​

Constitutional Convention

• Compromise between election by Congress and popular vote.
• Addressed concerns of slave-holding and smaller states.
• The Founders expected that:
• Electors would be chosen based on a district system.
• Each elector would make their decision independently (no party politics).
• Most elections would be resolved by the House of Representatives.

​

Changes Over Time

• Twelfth Amendment
• Separate elections for President and Vice-President
• Rise of at-large popular vote
• 1800: 11 states chose electors by legislature, 3 by district method, 2 at-large (DE, VA)
• By 1836, all but one state (SC) used the at-large popular vote method
• Pledged electors
• Pledge to vote for their party’s candidate
• Occasional “faithless electors”
• The short ballot
• Lists presidential and vice-presidential candidates instead of electors

​

Significant Events

• President decided by the House
• 1800 (Thomas Jefferson)
• 1824 (John Q. Adams)
• Winner lost the popular vote
• 1824 (John Q. Adams)
• 1876 (Rutherford B. Hayes)
• 1888 (Benjamin Harrison)
• 2000 (George W. Bush)
• 2016 (Donald Trump)

How Many Votes are Needed?

• What portion of the popular vote is needed for an electoral victory?

​

• How does the answer change if we consider:
• States with 43.1% of the population have a majority of electoral votes
• Multiple candidates
• Turnout

Measuring Power of States

• People per electoral vote
• Smaller (so higher power) for smaller states

​

• Viewing the Electoral College as a weighted voting system

​

• Attempts to measure the power of individual voters

​

​

Weighted Voting Systems

• A type of “yes-no” voting system.
• Described by weights for each voter, or player, and a quota such that a coalition, or group of voters, is winning precisely when the sum of the weights meets or exceeds the quota.

​

• Is the Electoral College a weighted voting system?

​

​

​

​

Power Indices

• Voting power is not necessarily proportional to number of votes!

​

• The Banzhaf Power Index measures the proportion of coalitions where a given member is critical to the coalition winning.

​

• The Shapley-Shubik Power Index measure the proportion of sequential coalitions where a given member is pivotal.

​

Example

• A has 50 votes, B has 49 votes, C has 1 vote, and the quota is 51 votes.

​

• The winning coalitions are:

{A, B, C}

{A, B}

{A, C}

Example (slide 2)

{A, B, C}

{A, B}

{A, C}

​

• A is critical 3 times, B once, and C once.
• So the Banzhaf power indices are:

A 3/5, B 1/5, C 1/5

Example (slide 3)

Electoral College Computations

Power of Individual Voters

Real-World Voting Power

• Requires data on voter preferences (polls) to estimate
• Examples:
• “Voter Power Index” (fivethirtyeight.com)
• The “relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner”
• Based on a proprietary model (alas)
• “jerseyvote” (Sam Wang, Princeton)
• How does a single vote affect a candidate’s probability of winning?

Critiques of the Electoral College

• Uneven power distribution among states

​

• Focus on “swing states”

​

• Disparity with popular vote results

​

• Disincentivizes turnout and may encourage voter suppression

​

• Disenfranchises U.S. territories

​

• Confusing

Arguments for the Electoral College

• Avoids a regionally focused or urban-centered win.

​

• Prevents need for national run-offs or recounts.

​

• Respects federalism.

​

• Grants winner a mandate.

Routes to Change

• Constitutional amendment.
• Proposed 1969 (filibustered in Senate), 1977, 2017

​

• Action by individual states
• District-based electoral votes (Maine, Nebraska)
• Proportionally based electoral votes
• Subject to the same pressures that initially pushed states toward at-large popular vote

​

• Collective state action

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact�

• An agreement among states to direct their electors to vote for the winner of the national popular vote.
• Only becomes effective when adopted by states with 270+ electoral votes.
• Presently adopted by CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (total of 195 electoral votes).
• Does not require a constitutional amendment, but may require Congressional approval.

Class discussions

• Guidelines for discussing controversial topics (http://www.crlt.umich.edu/publinks/generalguidelines):
• Identify a clear purpose
• Establish ground rules
• Listen respectfully, without interrupting
• Criticize ideas, not individuals
• Focus on methods and systems
• Avoid blame, speculation, and inflammatory language
• Model appropriate behavior
• Re-direct the discussion as needed
• Include everyone (or as many as possible)
• Summarize discussion points at the end

Questions?

​

​

​

• For more information:
• Email: curtis.mitchell@kirkwood.edu
• Phone: 319-398-7745