9 MAY 2023 BERGEN
COMFORT
Welcome and overview
Christoph Heinze
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 820989. The work reflects only the author’s/authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains.
www.comfort-project.eu
COMFORT
Our common future ocean in the Earth system –
quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for
determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points
Hope: Early career scientist’s networking progresses
Goals
Overall: Ocean tipping elements under anthropogenic physical and chemical climate forcing.
Focus on the triple threat of (1) warming, (2) deoxygenation, and (3) ocean acidification.
Specifically:
1. Identify climate-induced ocean tipping points and attribute them to processes (CT1, WPs 1-2).
2. Quantify related impacts and establish multi-dimensional safe operating spaces (CT2, WPs 3-4).
3. Provide respective mitigation targets and options, as well as projected mitigation pathways (CT3, WPs 5-6).
4. Integrate stakeholder knowledge and provide new results including data to users (CT4, WPs 7-10).
Tackling to stay safe – towards implementation
Where, when, why, how?
Consequences?
Tackling to stay safe – perspectives & options
Many more fast changes than thought before!
Gap in monitoring due to still sparse ocean observations
Seifert et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2021.00104
Example
(model)
Trails for quantifying marine ecosystem change under progressing climate change exist!
Terrific for showing what is at stake, unified framework for tracking explored incl. habitats, safe operating spaces, vanishing/novel climates/ecosystems
Sguotti et al., 2021,
Doi: 10.3389/fmars.2022.945204
Example
Mitigation options other than
immediate GHG emission reductions may be no option!
No real hope that CO2 overshoot and CDR work will for tackling climate change.
Schwinger et al., 2022,https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28573-5
Example
For wrapping up, legacy, synthesis
The term “tipping point” is problematic as
it is used by different people differently…
Tipping point – threshold (beyond that non-linear system change)
Regime shift – system change from one stable to another stable state
You must cross a threshold in driving factors/system properties to trigger a regime shift
Hysteresis
(Ryan A. Monson, CC BY 2.0)
Wikimedia Commons
Source of figures: Ferretto et al. 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2022.100347, (open access, CC license).
Left: Goes back to idea by Rockström, Steffen et al.. Right: Goes back to idea from Raworth (Oxfam, 2012).
Planetary boundaries.
Green area is the safe operating space.
Doughnut.
Green area is the safe and just operating space.
The IPCC and abrupt changes/reversibility/TPs
IPCC SROCC ch.6 Collins et al.
The IPCC and abrupt changes/ reversibility/TPs
For full table, see
IPCC AR6 WG1 ch.4 Lee et al.
………..
What would we do/have done without?
Thank you very much for your attention
Photo: C.Heinze (Galmsbüll)