I) What is your view? Five point scale, 1= Confident union density will increase in 2020s; 2 = Possible will expand; 3 don’t know; 4 = disagree; 5 strongly disagree, unions will not expand much if at all.
II) Argument/Evidence for YES, unionism will grow in new spurt vs Argument/ Evidence for NO, unions will not grow much if at all
III) Your favored policy for unions to grow rapidly. If it were your choice and your union/ other unions would go long, what policy would you suggest to bolster the likelihood of a new spurt in 2020s
(IV) What research information would most help you/unions broadly in succeeding in next few years?
Can recent Union successes spark a new union spurt (and save capitalism from mad billionaires) or will it peter out against the forces of darkness?
Richard B. Freeman, Harvard Econ, CLJE,
TUP Talk Austin Hall 100 January 30 3:00-4:30 pm
1)History of Unions (and most other social organizations) show that they grow in sudden spurts, when people get worked up about events and see organization as only way to influence events, and when laws become more enabling. Success sets off contagious process.
The case for YES
Public sector unionism jumped from 10% to 36% of the public-sector work force from 1960 to 1980, abetted by favorable public sector laws in many states.
US private sector burst began in Great Depression period when few expected it.
2) Attitudes have become more positive toward unions
Gallup polls show US workers have most favorable view of them and the need for unions in decades. Other polls show many workers saying they would support unions at their workplace.
SIEU Committee on Interns and Residents has won massive victories in organizing doctors at hospitals and health care organizations, 75% of Mass General Brigham, 80% at Stanford’s hospital, 60% at Alina Health in Minnesota. Post-docs and graduate students who make up the bulk of scientific workers have also voted in huge majorities for unions, most tellingly at NIH recently.
3) Spurts of Growth among highly trained workers in medicine and science.
4 ) Unions have won major gains through collective bargaining in different sectors, in some cases without long strikes.
Unprecedented successes in collective bargaining of Auto workers, Actors and writers guild, and university faculty teachers with strikes, such as Rutgers, and recent University California success with a one day strike, and Teamsters with no strike.
2) Attitudes have become more positive toward unions
Gallup polls show US workers have most favorable view of them and the need for unions in decades. Other polls show many workers saying they would support unions at their workplace.
SIEU Committee on Interns and Residents has won massive victories in organizing doctors at hospitals and health care organizations, 75% of Mass General Brigham, 80% at Stanford’s hospital, 60% at Alina Health in Minnesota. Post-docs and graduate students who make up the bulk of scientific workers have also voted in huge majorities for unions, most tellingly at NIH recently.
Rise of remote work, where workers want to maintain WFH or hybrid and many managements favor return to office or workplace. Will unions find ways to organize/ represent remote workers? There are sizable economic gains from remote work – saving commuting time, saving office space, reducing face-to-face harassment by bosses who like to boss, but costs as well.
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4) Spurts of Growth among highly trained workers in medicine and science
3) New area of management-labor disagreement initiated by Covid pandemic.
6) Movement of one huge firm – Microsoft – toward “neutrality” in elections for unions and willingness to accept CWA organization without going through the election procedure. Changes in management leaders. Can Starbucks win with 360 union victories and more coming?
7) New group of innovative aggressive union leaders, notably Shawn Fain, who recognize that strong unions do best for workers and firms through industry-level bargaining, which predominates in most of the EU. This removes management fear that their firm will somehow suffer cost disadvantage from being only union firm in a sector and to focus on working with union to improve what firm does rather than to spend resources fighting union. Unionism is at its best when it represents large numbers of workers rather than fighting for its life in niche parts of labor market.
5) Unions have won major gains through collective bargaining in different sectors, in some cases without long strikes.
Unprecedented successes in collective bargaining of Auto workers, Actors and writers guild, and university faculty teachers with strikes, such as Rutgers, and recent University California success with a one day strike, and Teamsters with no strike.
The case for NO