What rationality can do for us

The Flinch

Must I believe it?

1. Pick a hard-to-think-thought��2. What if it’s true? What would you do?

(2 minutes)

Litany of Tarski

• If I should stop being a vegetarian,
• I desire to believe that I should stop being a vegetarian;
• If I should not stop being a vegetarian,
• I desire to believe that I should not stop being a vegetarian;
• Let me not become attached to beliefs I may not want.

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Scout Mindset

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Value Affirmation

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Notice

TAP

�(Trigger-Action Pattern)

The Temptation

Can I believe it?

1. If you were right, what would you expect to see?

2. If you were wrong, what would you expect to see?

Best Disagreement

“Frequently imagine what someone you respect, thinking you were wrong, would say/try to make the best argument against what you are currently thinking.” – Carl Shulman

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Make beliefs pay rent

(5 minutes) Extra credit: predict first

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Look something up

• GDPs / populations of countries
• Number of animals / planets / stars
• State of technology
• Studies you keep hearing / citing

Permission to Disagree �Permission to have Uncertainty

Looking things up

Beliefs paying rent

Generating alternative hypotheses

Guesstimate / spreadsheet

Predictions / Fermi estimates

Putting numbers on them

Model building / Inside view

Really Trying

Do I have to?

(5 minutes)

1. Pick a life problem or world problem (1 minute)

Ex: More mRNA vaccines, laundry

• Assume the solution is findable in five minutes OR that it is literally solvable in the next five minutes
• Solve it

Hamming Questions

1. What is the most important thing to be working on?
2. Why aren’t you working on it?
3. In general, what’s stopping you? Can you fix it?
4. If you were reading a book about your life, what would you be screaming at the main character right now?

1. Pick a life problem or world problem (1 minute)

Ex: More mRNA vaccines, laundry

• Assume the solution is findable in five minutes OR that it is literally solvable in the next five minutes
• Solve it

(5 minutes)

More Resources

•Map and Territory (book)

•Less Wrong (community blog)

•Guesstimate (making estimates and models)

•Fermi problems + Less Wrong(google search term)

•CFAR Handbook (pdf)

•Carl Shulman’s research document (google doc)

•Logan Strohl’s writing on Noticing (Agenty Duck)

•The online rationality community (around)

•You can find me on twitter @chanamessinger and at www.chanamessinger.com

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If there is anything you would like to do as a result of this talk, make a concrete plan for doing it. Tomorrow? Next week? What and when?