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Preparedness Innovation – Air Force�

Mapping & Graphing Uncertainty in Science & Technology

Captain Simon Reay Atkinson RAN (PhD)

(A/PROF USYD)

Principal Investigator, Preparedness Innovation – Air Force

Headquarters Air Command

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Agenda

  1. Crawl Walk Run
  2. End of Age – New Scientific Age?
  3. TRL, SDL, New Temporal-Thematic Heuristics
  4. Three into 1 – Invention-Innovation Pivot
  5. Ages to Generations – Preparedness Innovation
  6. Graphing Uncertainty
  7. Questions

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Headquarters Air Command

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From Ape to AIPP (AI App)?

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From Ape to AIPP (AI App)? (Reproduced by kind permission of the Navy League of Australia (SRAKCAM©2023)) [41]

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Headquarters Air Command

Headquarters Air Command

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Logistic S-curve applied to Scientific Maturity

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Microchip Moore’s Law v Exponential growth

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Scientific Ages - to Synthetical

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Analogue to Digital to Synthetic?

New Age – New Knowledge?

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New Knowledge?

To err is human; to forgive divine – without imperfection, there will be no divine 1

Knowledge is social (or human), as is the Infotechnological 2

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Existential Knowledge is the knowledge of all living beings in order to sustain life on earth. It is an inherent, practical intelligence that all living beings are born with – providing interpretation of reasoning by Kierkegaard's (1843-1846) “assertion of the subjectivity of truth”; noting morality is more important than universal ethics. (Reay Atkinson (2023))

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Interstitial Knowledge is apriori, scripted knowledge that forms, or occupies only at the interstices between data and information. It may be ethical and by rules (ROE) and codes of conduct etc., but inherently amoral – since it lacks humanity.  It is possible to say, for example, that a robot or ChatGBT “interstist” –since “they are” but may not “be.” (Reay Atkinson (2023))

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  1. Derived by CAPT Simon Reay Atkinson RN (PhD) based upon Alexander Pope in an Essay on Criticism (1711) in which Pope also opines, in Part II, that ‘a little learning is a dangerous thing’ and, in Part III, that ‘…Fools rush in where Angels fear to tread’.
  2. Connecting Law and Callon (1988), Bunge (2010), and Reay Atkinson (2012)

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Technology Readiness Level (TRL)

8

Level

Technology Readiness Level Definition

TRL 1

Basic Research: Initial scientific research has been conducted. Principles are qualitatively postulated and observed. Focus is on new discovery rather than applications.

TRL 2

Applied Research: Initial practical applications are identified. Potential of material or process to solve a problem, satisfy a need, or find application is confirmed.

TRL 3

Critical Function or Proof of Concept Established: Applied research advances and early stage development begins. Studies and laboratory measurements validate analytical predictions of separate elements of the technology.

TRL 4

Lab Testing/Validation of Alpha Prototype Component/Process: Design, development and lab testing of components/processes. Results provide evidence that performance targets may be attainable based on projected or modelled systems.

TRL 5

Laboratory Testing of Integrated/Semi-Integrated System: System Component and/or process validation is achieved in a relevant environment.

TRL 6

Prototype System Verified: System/process prototype demonstration in an operational environment (beta prototype system level).

TRL 7

Integrated Pilot System Demonstrated: System/process prototype demonstration in an operational environment (integrated pilot system level).

TRL 8

System Incorporated in Commercial Design: Actual system/process completed and qualified through test and demonstration (pre-commercial demonstration).

TRL 9

System Proven and Ready for Full Commercial Deployment: Actual system proven through successful operations in operating environment, and ready for full commercial deployment.

Time Constant (1 to 9) ~ 15 years

DSTG / Research Labs

(More Invention)

JDI / CASG

(More Innovation)

DPI/DAP

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Scientific Discovery Levels (SDL)

9

Level

Scientific Discovery Level Definition

SDL 9

Abductive Research: Fundamental research to understand the philosophy and identify the underlying systems, principles and ontology as postulated with a focus on discovery and invention.

SDL 8

Deductive Research: Research focussed on established science, results, and experiments to inform the theoretical development, classify, falsify, and ground scientific principles.

SDL 7

Inductive Research: Research focussed on abstracting the philosophy and theory to model, test, develop, and validate ontology and designs through lab-based experimentation. Seeks to answer the research questions and provide models for scaling future research and forecasting advances.

SDL 6

Conceptual Research: Research focussed on standardising the concepts to envision new languages, and adapt technologies, applications, and processes for projected or modelled system prototyping.

SDL 5

Research Design: Design, development, and field testing of components/processes and prototypes. Results provide evidence that science may be taught as a discipline, and applied by attainable projected or modelled technologies.

SDL 4

Engineering / Strategic Research: System/process scaling to engineer/build/develop technology/ procedures/ processes, for technical training on a pre-production prototype and demonstrating in a strategic environment.

SDL 3

Applied Research: System/process prototyping applying new/existing technologies and capabilities in an operational environment (integrated pilot system level). Connecting to TRL 2.

SDL 2

Develop Research Expertise: Providing ‘explanation of intuition’ and ‘invention of reason’ for leading research. Where expertise is typified by ‘fluid’ decision making and taking.[29, 30]

SDL 1

Reflection: critical reflection of system meta-datum and systems, classes, and genus. Develop diagnostic hypothesises and draw rational conclusions from system patterns; including holistic recognition of ‘whole not parts’ and create membership of associated programmes/networks. [29, 30]

DSTG / Research Labs

(More Invention)

DPI/DAP

(More Innovation)

Time Constant (9 to 1) ~ 45 years

JDI

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Thematic-Temporal (Heuristic)

10

Level

NASA Technology Readiness Level Definition

Level

RAAF Science Discovery Level Definition

TRL 1

Basic Research: Initial scientific research has been conducted. Principles are qualitatively postulated and observed. Focus is on new discovery rather than applications.

SDL 9

Abductive Research: Fundamental research to understand the philosophy and identify the underlying systems, principles and ontology as postulated with a focus on discovery and invention.

TRL 2

Applied Research: Initial practical applications are identified. Potential of material or process to solve a problem, satisfy a need, or find application is confirmed.

SDL 8

Deductive Research: Research focussed on established science, results, and experiments to inform the theoretical development, classify, falsify, and ground scientific principles.

TRL 3

Critical Function or Proof of Concept Established: Applied research advances and early stage development begins. Studies and laboratory measurements validate analytical predictions of separate elements of the technology.

SDL 7

Inductive Research: Research focussed on abstracting the philosophy and theory to model, test, develop, and validate ontology and designs through lab-based experimentation. Seeks to answer the research questions and provide models for scaling future research and forecasting advances.

TRL 4

Lab Testing/Validation of Alpha Prototype Component/Process: Design, development and lab testing of components/processes. Results provide evidence that performance targets may be attainable based on projected or modelled systems.

SDL 6

Conceptual Research: Research focussed on standardising the concepts to envision new languages, and adapt technologies, applications, and processes for projected or modelled system prototyping.

TRL 5

Laboratory Testing of Integrated/Semi-Integrated System: System Component and/or process validation is achieved in a relevant environment.

SDL 5

Research Design: Design, development, and field testing of components/processes and porotypes. Results provide evidence that science may be taught as a discipline, and applied by attainable projected or modelled technologies.

TRL 6

Prototype System Verified: System/process prototype demonstration in an operational environment (beta prototype system level).

SDL 4

Engineering / Strategic Research: System/process scaling to engineer/build/develop technology/ procedures/ processes, for technical training on a pre-production prototype and demonstrating in a strategic environment.

TRL 7

Integrated Pilot System Demonstrated: System/process prototype demonstration in an operational environment (integrated pilot system level).

SDL 3

Applied Research: System/process prototyping applying new/existing technologies and capabilities in an operational environment (integrated pilot system level). Connecting to TRL 2.

TRL 8

System Incorporated in Commercial Design: Actual system/process completed and qualified through test and demonstration (pre-commercial demonstration).

SDL 2

Develop Research Expertise: Providing ‘explanation of intuition’ and ‘invention of reason’ for leading research. Where expertise is typified by ‘fluid’ decision making and taking.

TRL 9

System Proven and Ready for Full Commercial Deployment: Actual system proven through successful operations in operating environment, and ready for full commercial deployment.

SDL 1

Reflection: critical reflection of system meta-datum and systems, classes, and genus. Develop diagnostic hypothesises and draw rational conclusions from system patterns; including holistic recognition of ‘whole not parts’ and create membership of associated programmes/networks.

Technology S-Curve

15 years

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In other words, each (of 9) TRL may be estimated at taking up to 18 months.

Science S-Curve

45 years

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In other words, each (of 9) SDL may be estimated at taking up to 5 years.

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Three TRL into One SDL

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Tech A = First Science Harmonic (~1-15 years)

Tech A = Second Science Harmonic (~16-30 years)

Tech A = Third Science Harmonic (~31-45 years)

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Invention-Innovation Pivot

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Age

Stage

Science Harmonic

Technology Phase

Technology Harmonic

Scientific Time Constant

Crawl

3-12 years

TEC A

1-4 years

6-9 years

10-14 years

Walk

18-27 years

TEC B

1-4 years

6-9 years

10-14 years

Run

33-42 years

TEC C

1-4 years

6-9 years

10-14 years

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Invention-Innovation Pivot

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Science Led

(Explorative)

Technology Led

(Exploitative)

Three TRL 1-9 (TEC A,B,C) Per SDL

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Scientific Age

Science Technology Harmonic

Generation (Age in 2024)

Turbine 1886-1930

TEC A 1886-1900

1890-1903 Centennials

TEC B 1901-1915

1904-1917 Edwardians

TEC C 1916-1930

1918-1931 Great Generation (93-106)

Industrial 1931-1975

TEC A 1931-1945

1932-1945 Depressionals (79-92)

TEC B 1946-1960

1946-1959 Baby Boomers (65-78)

TEC C 1961-1975

1960-1973 Gen X (51-64)

Information 1976-2020

TEC A 1976-1990

1974-1987 Gen Y (37-50)

TEC B 1991-2005

1988-2001 Millennials (23-36)

TEC C 2006-2020

2002-2015 Gen Z (Zed, 9-22)

Synthetical 2021-2065

TEC A 2021-2035

2016-2029 Gen Alpha (0-8)

TEC B 2036-2050

2030-2043 Gen Beta?

TEC C 2051-2065

2044-2057 Gen Gamma?

Thematic-Temporal (Heuristic)

Age to Generation

Each Human Generation, connects to its Technology Harmonic to its Scientific Age

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PI-AF Preparedness Focus

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In accordance with the Defence Strategic Review (DSR) and reporting to DGPREP-AF, the implied Preparedness focus of DPI-AF, is considered to be:

  1. TRL 4-6 (within the third Science Harmonic, TEC C, SDL 3-2)
  2. Focussing on Operational Preparedness, on behalf of Air Command;
  3. Accelerate in Years 1-3 (currently 2025-27);
  4. Supporting the Millennials generation (b. 1988-2001), those currently aged 22-35, typically ranks from AC through to Wing Commander.

Pareto

In accordance with Agile methodology, we are working towards an early IOC (or 80% / Pareto) solution, with a long tail to FOC – which may never be reached.

Another way of thinking of 80% is to adopt Sir Robert Watson-Watts’ “Cult of the Imperfect” (based on the Law of Parsimony / Occam’s Razor) which comes down to:

Second Best Today, because:

First best never comes, and we know what third best looks like.

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Filling the Invention – Innovation (I-I) Spectrum

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PI-AF Heuristics (Temporal-Thematics)

  • DPI-AF (Edgy- AF – More Bottom-Up Innovation Program):

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      • TRL/SDL: TRL 4-6; TEC C, SDL 5-1 (CoG SDL 3-2)
      • Time-frame – 1- 3 years

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      • Focus: Operational/Preparedness Command where ideas are explored, concepts are tested, and prototypes are developed.

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      • Responsibility: Focuses on grassroots, bottom-up innovation initiatives driven by aviators. Develops Operational relationships with Defence, Industry, Academia, TAFE.

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      • Activities: Encourages experimentation, pilot programs, and agile development approaches to identify and solve operational challenges. Provides the end-user connections to Jericho and DAP to support development, testing and evaluation of innovation concepts.

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Headquarters Air Command

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RULS Graphing Uncertainty

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Headquarters Air Command

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RAAF Uncertainty Load Scale (RULS)

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RULS of Uncertainty (1)

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The Major Impact at Stage 1 is the Science on the Technology on the Capability, & the Problem Set.

Assessment

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Pos. 1: SDL 9, TRL 3, CAP 7, PS 7, IN 2 –

UI = 33.8% (Poss DSTG)

Pos. 2: SDL 8, TRL 6, CAP 7, PS 7, IN 2 –

UI = 35.6% (Poss DSTG or JDI?)

Pos. 3: SDL 6, TRL 2, CAP 7, PS 7, IN 2 –

UI = 33.8% (Poss. Accelerator?)

Pos. 4: SDL 5, TRL 5, CAP 7, PS 7, IN 2 –

UI = 30.5% (Poss ACII or JDI)

Pos. 5: SDL 4, TRL 9, CAP 7, PS 7, IN 2 –

UI = 32.1% (Poss. Accelerator?)

Pos. 6: SDL 3, TRL 4, CAP 7, PS 7, IN 2 –

UI = 27% (Poss ACII?)

Pos. 7: SDL 1, TRL 9, CAP 7, PS 7, IN 2 –

UI = 27% (Poss. Accelerator?)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

  1. Assess the Science SDL (9-1)
  2. Assess the Science against the Technology Harmonic (TEC A, B, C) – Noting TRL 4-6 ACII Remit
  3. Assess the TRL against the associated TEC.

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Note: Combinations are ruled by the Science.

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Questions

Simon Reay Atkinson

Captain RAN (PhD) | A/Professor (USYD)

PI - Preparedness Innovation – Air Force

Directorate of Preparedness Innovation

Preparedness Branch – Air Force 

Headquarters Air Command | RAAF Base Glenbrook

Simon.atkinson5@defence.gov.au 

P: 02 5108 9622 | M: 0457 757 078 |

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SUM

  • “Nature abhors a Lacuna”
  • Great Work ongoing often being led by Air Force
  • Strategic, Scientific, Technological Context changing rapidly – New Scientific Age
  • AF Covering the Innovation Spectrum – with DSTG (ASCA) the Invention-Innovation Spectrum
  • “Complementarity – by Design not Accident”
    • Law of Requisite Variety (Ashby) – “Every Control requires a Controller/Coordinator”

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’One team – swift, decisive, resilient and respected’

Headquarters Air Command

Headquarters Air Command

’One team – swift, decisive, resilient and respected’