Power of Real Estate

Tucson, AZ

Anthony Smith

Realtor.com

March 2026

Economics Team

realtor.com/research/team

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Macroeconomic Update

The Economy

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The Economy

Government: -1.0%

Consumption: +1.3%�Investment: +0.6%�Net Exports: -0.2%

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The Economy

6

The Economy

7

The Economy

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THe Economy

International Events are Impacting the Housing Market

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Housing Market

Outlook

Housing Forecast

SELLER'S MARKET

BALANCED

BUYER’S MARKET

9.4

8.3

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

5.9

4.9

5.2

4.8

4.4

3.9

4.0

3.9

3.1

3.1

2.7

2.3

3.7

4.1

Market Balance

The National Housing Market Continues to Rebalance�Balanced Market: Between 4 and 6 Months of Supply

2026

4.6

2025

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Housing Forecast

Home Prices Will Increase - But By Less Than Inflation and Median Income

Up 2.2% to $422,000. Offers improved buying power, when paired with slightly lower rates.

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Housing Forecast

2026 Brings Affordability Milestones

The picture is improving although affordability is not far off of long-term lows

• Monthly payment on median home drops 1.3% Y/Y
• First decline since 2020
• Monthly payment takes 29.3% of median income
• Below 30% threshold for first time since 2022
• Why?
• Combo of lower mortgage rates, modest price growth, income growth

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Today’s Housing Market

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Recent Housing Trends

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Median List Price Dipped in 28 of 50 Metros

Year-over-Year Change in Median List Price

Phase 1

Find out more at realtor.com/research/february-2026-data/

Recent Housing Trends

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2026 Best Time to Sell

The week of April 12-18 is expected to have the ideal balance of housing market conditions that favor home sellers

Phase 1

Find out more at realtor.com/research/best-time-to-sell-2026/

Thought Leadership

The Shrinking Institutional Investor Footprint

National Trends and Local Concentration

Phase 1

Find out more at realtor.com/research/corporate-investors-march-2026/

Local Trends

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Market Reports - Cross-Market Demand

Cross-Market Demand

A data-driven look at in- and out-of-market home shopping in the Tucson, AZ metro area

• 27.1% of online traffic to Tucson came from local shoppers, 26.6% from the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro, 48.1% from out-of-state shoppers, and 2.1% from international shoppers.

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• Among all the out-of-market shoppers, shoppers from the Los Angeles metro showed the greatest interest to move to Tucson, followed by shoppers from Denver and Las Vegas.

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Market Reports - Cross-Market Demand

Cross-Market Demand

A data-driven look at where shoppers from Tucson metro area are looking for homes

• Around 76% of online traffic from Santa Cruz was directed toward homes outside the metro
• 50.2% of the views went to other parts of California and 26.0% focused on homes elsewhere in the U.S.
• About 24% of views stayed within the Santa Cruz metro.
• Popular destinations:
• Salinas was the most popular within-state destination, followed by San Francisco and San Jose.

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Market Data

Home Prices in Tucson

A look at Home Prices in the Tucson metro area

• Tucson's median listing price has risen from $239.5K in 2016 to $386.5K today, a 61% increase over roughly a decade.
• The national median has grown from $259K to $403.45K over the same period, a 56% gain, meaning Tucson has actually outpaced the national market in percentage terms.
• The gap between the two has narrowed slightly, from about $19.5K in 2016 to just $17K today, with Tucson nearly converging with the national median.
• Both markets saw sharp run-ups during the pandemic, but Tucson's trajectory was steeper, closing much of the historical discount by 2022
• Tucson remains below the national median.

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Market Data

Luxury Home Price Points in Tucson

A look at Luxury Home Prices in the Tucson metro area

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• Tucson's luxury entry point sits at ~$893K as of February 2026, roughly 74% of the national threshold ($1.2M)
• The gap between Tucson and the national level has widened from ~$149K in 2016 to ~$312K today
• Both markets surged during the pandemic, but national luxury appreciated faster (51% vs. 37% over the full timeline)
• Tucson peaked near $989K in May 2022 and has since pulled back about 10%, settling in the mid-$800Ks
• Despite the cooldown, Tucson luxury remains roughly 19% above its pre-pandemic baseline of ~$750K

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Market Data

Luxury Home Age

A look at Luxury Home Age in the Tucson metro area

• Tucson's luxury stock skews heavily toward the 2000s boom, with nearly 25% of listings built in that decade compared to 16.6% nationally
• The 1980s and 1990s are also overrepresented in Tucson (12.3% and 16.3%) relative to the national market (8.1% and 10.5%), reflecting the metro's growth surge in those decades
• Nationally, the 2020s lead all decades at 21.8%, while Tucson trails at 19.5%, suggesting slower new luxury construction in the metro recently

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Resources

Newly Redesigned site:

realtor.com/research

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Thank You! Questions?