Edzo A. Botjes - 12th PyGrunn - The year of the Dragon - 2024 05 17 @ Forum Groningen

Securing your team, solution and company to embrace chaos

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README.SLIDES

Content of this deck is a collection of work by others.

Work of others is referenced per slide.

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Therefore this deck is licenced under

Creative Commons By Attribution and Share Alike.

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‘Each generation stands on the shoulders of those who have gone before them’ Stephen Hawking (2017)��‘. . . each giant calling to his brother through the desolate intervals of time . . . ’ Friedrich Nietzsche (1873)

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Who am I

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Multiple whitepapers�Thesis/IEEE ~6.000 reads�40+ Blogs�Quoted in Books and Theses

Consultancy for �7 Sectors,

40+ Clients,

50+ Assignments�Infra to business strategy

1992 - 2006 your IT guy

2006 - 2020 Sogeti

2021 - 2023 Xebia

2024 - Self Employed

PhD Student Cyber Resilience 2021 - tbd

MSc Enterprise Architecture 2020

BSc Business Information Systems 2006

ASc Computer Science 2003

Edzo Botjes

@Edzob

(.com, LinkedIn, Twitter)

Organisational Resilience

Antifragility Architect

Trusted Advisor

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Consultant @ Xebia�2021 - 2023

Consultant @ Sogeti�2006 - 2020

Internships�2005-2006

Edzo Botjes

@Edzob

(.com, LinkedIn, Twitter)

Organisational Resilience

Antifragility Architect

Trusted Advisor

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Index

Index.md

1. My Personal Journey
2. Software, Solutions & Enterprises
3. A story on Reality
4. Introduction into Subjective & Objective chaos
5. How we can use Security & Sensemaking
6. We can Tackle this!
7. Summary

Bonus Slides

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My Personal Journey

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Software, �Solutions & Enterprises

What is an enterprise?

Hoogervorst, J. A. (2017). Foundations of Enterprise Governance and Enterprise Engineering https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319721064

Dietz, J. L., et al, (2013). The discipline of enterprise engineering. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263068480

Daft, R., Murphy, J., and Willmott, H. (2010). Organisation Theory and Design. http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/761007858

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An enterprise is an intentionally created

cooperative of human beings

with a certain societal purpose.

Dietz et al, 2013

… enterprises aims �to fulfil or address certain (perceived) wants and needs �of (certain) societal member of society at large �by delivering products and/or services.

Hoogervorst, 2017

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What does this imply?

Hoogervorst, J. A. (2017). Foundations of Enterprise Governance and Enterprise Engineering https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319721064

Dietz, J. L., et al, (2013). The discipline of enterprise engineering. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263068480

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An enterprise is an intentionally created

cooperative of human beings

with a certain societal purpose.

Dietz et al, 2013

… enterprises aims �to fulfil or address certain (perceived) wants and needs �of (certain) societal member of society at large �by delivering products and/or services.

Hoogervorst, 2017

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Why does this matter?

Habermas, J. (1986, June). The theory of communicative action reason and the rationalization of society, volume 1. Polity Press.

Dietz, J. L. G., & Mulder, H. B. F. (2020, April). Enterprise ontology: A human-centric approach to understanding the essence of organisation (1st ed.). Springer

doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-38854-6 https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-38854-6

Hoogervorst, Jan A. P. 2018. Foundations of Enterprise Governance and Enterprise Engineering: Presenting the Employee-Centric Theory of Organization. 1st ed. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing AG. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-72107-1.

IF an enterprise is a cooperation of people, with a certain purpose, THEN our collaboration determines the data �in our systems.

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Why does this matter?

Dietz, J. L. G., & Mulder, H. B. F. (2020, April). Enterprise ontology: A human-centric approach to understanding the essence of organisation (1st ed.). Springer

doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-38854-6 https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-38854-6

Conway, Melvin E (1968). “How do committees invent? Design organization criteria.” In: Datamation 14.4, pp. 28–31.

IF an enterprise is a cooperation of people, �with a certain purpose, �THEN our collaboration determines the data �in our systems.

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Also known as Conway's Law -

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What does this imply? Take 2

Hoogervorst, J. A. (2017). Foundations of Enterprise Governance and Enterprise Engineering https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319721064

Dietz, J. L., et al, (2013). The discipline of enterprise engineering. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263068480

Daft, R., Murphy, J., and Willmott, H. (2010). Organisation Theory and Design. http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/761007858

This implies that collaboration �in a team, between teams and with your supplier/ clients is an instantiation of an enterprise,

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And thus needs �purposeful design.

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An enterprise is an intentionally created

cooperative of human beings

with a certain societal purpose.

Dietz et al, 2013

… enterprises aims �to fulfil or address certain (perceived) wants and needs �of (certain) societal member of society at large �by delivering products and/or services.

Hoogervorst, 2017

If an enterprise is purposeful, �and it is intentionally designed �then the organisation design plays an important role, �else there is no intention and no purpose.

Daft et al, 2010

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This is not easy!

There be dragons!

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A story on reality

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_School_of_Athens

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegory_of_the_cave

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Perspective and information

https://twitter.com/DrNeenaJha/status/1338105837684977664

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Perspective and information

https://twitter.com/TanMohammedMD/status/1337865483446587392

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Perspective and information

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabbit%E2%80%93duck_illusion

https://scitechconnect.elsevier.com/lessons-from-the-dress-the-fundamental-ambiguity-of-visual-perception

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Reflections and information

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Visualisation and information

https://twitter.com/jimhejl/status/1452814882701824001

https://twitter.com/AkiyoshiKitaoka/status/1568102162064113669

https://www.ritsumei.ac.jp/~akitaoka/index-e.html

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Visualisation and information

https://x.com/AkiyoshiKitaoka/status/1783764771130785985

https://x.com/AkiyoshiKitaoka/status/1783765416286040153

https://www.ritsumei.ac.jp/~akitaoka/index-e.html

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Reflections and information

https://writing.exchange/@XanIndigo/109966588561594572

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#938DBB

https://writing.exchange/@XanIndigo/109966588561594572

Screenshot�Colorpick

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https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a3/Magniphy8x51ms.gif

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phi_phenomenon

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Hidden Slide

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Rotating Snakes https://www.ritsumei.ac.jp/~akitaoka/index-e.html

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rafaelgiraldotenorio_entarch-activity-6681201385402376192-4MNK

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Observation of �reality is broken

Subjective Chaos

https://twitter.com/AkiyoshiKitaoka/status/1784009348177604803?t=2AzN2jjLP0cRKIVuyHLSaA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabbit%E2%80%93duck_illusion

https://scitechconnect.elsevier.com/lessons-from-the-dress-the-fundamental-ambiguity-of-visual-perception

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Definition of chaos by Lorenz

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Norton_Lorenz

Lorenz, Edward Norton. 1963. “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.” Journal of the atmospheric sciences 20(2): 130–41. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:DNF>2.0.CO;2.

‘When the present determines the future, �but the approximate present �does not approximately determine the future.‘

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Edward Lorenz�May 23, 1917 – �April 16, 2008

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So what about objective reality

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Double Pendulum

Shinbrot, T., Grebogi, C., Wisdom, J., & Yorke, J. A. (1992). Chaos in a double pendulum. American Journal of Physics, 60(6), 491–499. doi: 10.1119/1.16860.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_pendulum

Two deterministic systems create one non-deterministic system

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Butterfly Effect

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/complexity-academy_complexitytheory-activity-6625721108249354241-MsJ

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Norton_Lorenz

Lorenz, Edward Norton. 1963. “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.” Journal of the atmospheric sciences 20(2): 130–41. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:DNF>2.0.CO;2.i

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Objective chaos and organisation

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Objective chaos in IT

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Objective chaos in IT

https://xkcd.com/2347

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Objective chaos in IT

Continuous innovation.

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Techstack is broken

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Reality is broken

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https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/information-security-consciousness/71645722

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quinn_Norton

Norton Q. (2014. May 20). 'Everything is broken'. The Message. Retrieved from: https://medium.com/message/everything-is-broken-81e5f33a24e1#.sc7pf19g3 (accessed June 18, 2020)

https://berthub.eu/prewar/ncsc%20accss%20surf%20keynote%20bert%20hubert-notes.pdf

https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/cyber-security-pre-war-reality-check/

"It’s hard to explain to regular people how much technology barely works, how much the infrastructure of our lives is held together by the IT equivalent of baling wire. Computer, and computing, are broken.”

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- Quinn Norton 2014

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Continuous Chaos

Huber, D., Kaufmann, H., and Steinmann, M. (2017). Innovation: An Abiding Enigma, pages 11–19. Springer International Publishing, Cham.

https://books.google.nl/books?id=rzckDwAAQBAJ

Shinbrot, T., Grebogi, C., Wisdom, J., & Yorke, J. A. (1992). Chaos in a double pendulum. American Journal of Physics, 60(6), 491–499. doi: 10.1119/1.16860.

Derbyshire, J., & Wright, G. (2014). Preparing for the future: Development of an ‘antifragile’ methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 82, 215–225. doi: 10.1016/J.TECHFORE.2013.07.001.

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Objective and Subjective chaos fuel VUCA

ISO 31.000 <- DNB

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2014.01.001

https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-16889-0

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility,_uncertainty,_complexity_and_ambiguity

Your reality �inside your organisation, between organisations, and around organisations is VUCA.

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Volatile

Uncertain

Complex

Ambiguous

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Here

Security meets Sensemaking

Chaos & Security

"If you think technology can solve your security problems, then you don't understand the problems and you don't understand the technology.”

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- Bruce Schneier, secrets and lies, 2007

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Definition of Secure & inSecure

Schneier, B. (2008). The psychology of security. International conference on cryptology in Africa, 5023, 50–79. Doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-68164-9_5.

Huang, D.-L., Rau, P.-L. P., & Salvendy, G. (2010). Perception of information security. Behaviour & Information Technology, 29(3), 221–232. doi: 10.1080/01449290701679361.

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Secure

in-Secure

Feeling

Reality

Secure

in-Secure

Expectation

Observation

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Creating a more secure reality

This is a subjective story.�Thus can be tackled by subjective tools.

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Secure

in-Secure

Expectation

Observation

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Cynefin Sensemaking

https://thecynefin.co/library/cynefin-weaving-sense-making-into-the-fabric-of-our-world/

https://www.systemswisdom.com/sites/default/files/Snowdon-and-Boone-A-Leader's-Framework-for-Decision-Making_0.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_framework

https://doi.org/10.1108/08944310510556955

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330500755

https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5386804

This is a subjective story.

Thus can be tackled by subjective tools.

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Cynefin Sensemaking

https://thecynefin.co/library/cynefin-weaving-sense-making-into-the-fabric-of-our-world/

https://www.systemswisdom.com/sites/default/files/Snowdon-and-Boone-A-Leader's-Framework-for-Decision-Making_0.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_framework

https://doi.org/10.1108/08944310510556955

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330500755

https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5386804

We know we don’t know and thus act differently.

We know things have ripple effects, so we design differently.

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Holistic

approach

Reductionistic

approach

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Watch tips

An Introduction to Residuality Theory �- Barry O'Reilly - NDC London 2024�https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MPUoiG6w_U

Dealing with unanticipated needs �– Dave Snowden�https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYqWREPb3Lc

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We can tackle this

Learning model of Senge and Hestenes

Senge, P. M. (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning organisation. A Currency book. Doubleday/Currency, New York, NY, USA. http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/815873729.

Hestenes, D. (2010). Modeling theory for math and science education. In Modeling students’ mathematical modeling competencies, pages 13–41. Springer.

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Mental Model

Building shared vision

Personal�Mastery

Team�Learning

Systems�Thinking

I

III

II

IV

V

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Learning model of Senge and Hestenes

Senge, P. M. (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning organisation. A Currency book. Doubleday/Currency, New York, NY, USA. http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/815873729.

Hestenes, D. (2010). Modeling theory for math and science education. In Modeling students’ mathematical modeling competencies, pages 13–41. Springer.

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Mental Model

Building shared vision

Personal�Mastery

Team�Learning

Systems�Thinking

Behavior

Reality

I

III

II

IV

V

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Learning model of Senge and Hestenes

Senge, P. M. (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning organisation. A Currency book. Doubleday/Currency, New York, NY, USA. http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/815873729.

Hestenes, D. (2010). Modeling theory for math and science education. In Modeling students’ mathematical modeling competencies, pages 13–41. Springer.

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Mental Model

Building shared vision

Personal�Mastery

Team�Learning

Systems�Thinking

Behavior

Reality

I

III

II

IV

V

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Mental Models are in your head!

Mack, A. (2003). Inattentional blindness: Looking without seeing. Current directions in psychological science, 12(5), 180-184. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=inattentional+blindness&btnG=

Jensen, M. S., Yao, R., Street, W. N., & Simons, D. J. (2011). Change blindness and inattentional blindness. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science, 2(5), 529-546. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=15061108287799144011&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5

SCHNEIER, B., & MACAULAY, T. (2020). Psychology and Usability. Security Engineering, 70-116. https://sid.ethz.ch/debian/rja14-papers/SEv3-ch3-dec18.pdf

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Mental Model

Behavior

Reality

What you do not know,

you can not see [social engineering].

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What you do not expect,

you can not see [inattentional blindness].

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Semiotic Triangle

Ogden & Richards’ Semiotic Triangle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangle_of_reference

Rousseau D, Billingham J, Calvo-Amodio J. Systemic Semantics: A Systems Approach to Building Ontologies and Concept Maps. Systems. 2018; 6(3):32. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems6030032

Dietz, J., & Hoogervorst, J. (2017). Foundations of enterprise engineering. TEE-00

van Gils, B. (2023). DATA IN CONTEXT: Models as Enablers for Managing and Using Data. Springer.

A design (term) is input for a personal mental model.

Both the term and the mental model are used to describe what is going on.

Be aware of the subjective and objective chaos in reality!

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Mental Model

Thing in the real world

Term

II

Models

Refers to

Invokes

Bonus�Slides

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Mental Model

Thing in the real world

Term

Behavior

Reality

II

Models

Refers to

Invokes

Hidden Slide

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1. Ogden & Richards’ Semiotic Triangle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangle_of_reference
2. Rousseau D, Billingham J, Calvo-Amodio J. Systemic Semantics: A Systems Approach to Building Ontologies and Concept Maps. Systems. 2018; 6(3):32. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems6030032
3. Dietz, J., & Hoogervorst, J. (2017). Foundations of enterprise engineering. TEE-00
4. van Gils, B. (2023). DATA IN CONTEXT: Models as Enablers for Managing and Using Data. Springer.
5. Cabrera, D., Cabrera, L., and Powers, E. (2015). A unifying theory of systems thinking with psychosocial applications. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 32(5):534–545.
6. Dilts, R. and Epstein, T. (1995). Dynamic learning. Meta Publications, Cupertino, CA, USA.
7. Hestenes, D. (2006). Notes for a modeling theory. In Proceedings of the 2006 GIREP conference: Modeling in physics and physics education, volume 31, page 27. University of Amsterdam Amsterdam
8. Hestenes, D. (2010). Modeling theory for math and science education. In Modeling students’ mathematical modeling competencies, pages 13–41. Springer.

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Hidden Slide

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Chaos in your team, in the behaviour of your app

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Mental Model

Building shared vision

Personal�Mastery

Team�Learning

Systems�Thinking

Behavior

Reality

I

III

II

IV

V

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Summary

Reality is strange. Embrace it.

Botjes, Edzo. (2020). Defining Antifragility and the application on Organisation Design (1.0) [Zenodo].

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3719389

Connections �lead to chaos

Perception �leads to chaos

Optimize for chaos

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Decouple in various ways.

Do not focus on hard controls and requirements, �focus on behaviour.

Assume breach, �Assume failure and Exploit it !�Learn from it !!

Hidden Slide

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See - Accept - Act

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Chaos is inevitable

Embrace chaos�Stay away from Fragile�Become Anti-Fragile

Optimize for learning

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Do not focus on hard controls and requirements, �focus on behaviour.

Decouple!

Assume breach, �Assume failure and Exploit it !�Learn from it !!

Learn from it !!

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Appendix

Triad of fragility

Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder (Vol. 3). Random House Trade Paperbacks.

Botjes, E. A., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations.

In J. P. A. Almeida, D. Bork, G. Guizzardi, M. Montali, H. A. Proper & T. P. Sales (Eds.), 2021 IEEE 23nd

conference on business informatics (CBI) (pp. 62–71, Vol. 01). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/CBI52690.2021.00017

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Antifragile as anti-these of fragile

Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder (Vol. 3). Random House Trade Paperbacks.

Botjes, E. A., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations.

In J. P. A. Almeida, D. Bork, G. Guizzardi, M. Montali, H. A. Proper & T. P. Sales (Eds.), 2021 IEEE 23nd

conference on business informatics (CBI) (pp. 62–71, Vol. 01). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/CBI52690.2021.00017

Embrace the pain to gain

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Generic Resilience Definition

Botjes, E. A., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations. In J. P. A. Almeida, D. Bork, G. Guizzardi, M. Montali, H. A. Proper & T. P. Sales (Eds.), 2021 IEEE 23nd conference on business informatics (CBI) (pp. 62–71, Vol. 01). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/CBI52690.2021.00017

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Three subtypes of resilience

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Botjes, E. A., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations. In J. P. A. Almeida, D. Bork, G. Guizzardi, M. Montali, H. A. Proper & T. P. Sales (Eds.), 2021 IEEE 23nd conference on business informatics (CBI) (pp. 62–71, Vol. 01). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/CBI52690.2021.00017

Martin-Breen, P. and Anderies, J. M. (2011). The bellagio initiative, background paper, resilience: A literature review. In Resilience: A Literature Review, Brighton:IDS. http://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/123456789/3692.

Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder (Vol. 3). Random House Trade Paperbacks.

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Three subtypes of resilience

Botjes, E. A., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations. In J. P. A. Almeida, D. Bork, G. Guizzardi, M. Montali, H. A. Proper & T. P. Sales (Eds.), 2021 IEEE 23nd conference on business informatics (CBI) (pp. 62–71, Vol. 01). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/CBI52690.2021.00017

Martin-Breen, P. and Anderies, J. M. (2011). The bellagio initiative, background paper, resilience: A literature review. In Resilience: A Literature Review, Brighton:IDS. http://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/123456789/3692.

Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder (Vol. 3). Random House Trade Paperbacks.

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Impertinent

Recover

Adapt

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Three subtypes of resilience

Botjes, E. A., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations. In J. P. A. Almeida, D. Bork, G. Guizzardi, M. Montali, H. A. Proper & T. P. Sales (Eds.), 2021 IEEE 23nd conference on business informatics (CBI) (pp. 62–71, Vol. 01). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/CBI52690.2021.00017

Martin-Breen, P. and Anderies, J. M. (2011). The bellagio initiative, background paper, resilience: A literature review. In Resilience: A Literature Review, Brighton:IDS. http://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/123456789/3692.

Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder (Vol. 3). Random House Trade Paperbacks.

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construction stays the same�functionality stays the same

construction changes�functionality stays the same

construction changes�functionality changes

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The business dilemma

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‘Normal’ resilience is not enough, and it is the default language.

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Extended list of antifragility attributes

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Botjes, E., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021, September). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations. In 2021 IEEE 23rd Conference on Business Informatics (CBI) (Vol. 1, pp. 62-71). IEEE.

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