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Our Grain Growing Past Powers the Future

2025 MID-ATLANTIC GRAIN CONFERENCE

MARCH 17, 2025

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Our Panel

Nate Epling, Moderator
Amanda Cather, Mid-Atlantic Deputy Director, American Farmland Trust
Heidi Barr, CEO, PA Flax Project
Bill Shick, Director of Agriculture, PA Flax Project
You!

Aldie Mill

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Program

Grain Production, Then and Now (Nate)
Current Threats and Strategies to Succeed (Amanda)
Case-Study: PA Flax Project (Heidi and Bill)
Open Discussion

Three Monkeys Farm

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Objectives

Brief history of grain production in the Mid-Atlantic
Grain’s critical role in preserving our landscapes
Regional best zoning practices to improve actual food production
Economic development successes
Innovations by individual farmers or grain producers

Potts-Neer Mill Ruins

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Beginnings of Mid-Atlantic Grains

5000 BCE – 1000 BCE: The Indigenous communities of Virginia established a dependence on cultivated foods, which served as an important resource for increasing their population and enhancing social complexity. Of these three grains identified- Sunflower, Knotweed, Little Barley

900 CE – 1700 CE: Non-native maize established as essential crop due to ease of growth and caloric density.

Courtesy Loudoun Heritage Farm Museum

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Early American Production

Top Grain States (excl. corn):

Illinois
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New York
Wisconsin
Virginia

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Early American Production

Courtesy Loudoun Heritage Farm Museum

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Early American Production

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AFT’s Mission

Save the land that sustains us by protecting farmland, promoting sound farming practices, and keeping farmers on the land.

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Nationally – 2001 to 2016

11M acres of farmland were converted (2,000 acres per day)

Most conversion was to LDR

One-third of converted land was Nationally Significant

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Three Future Scenarios

Now I’ll go into more depth on our three future scenarios
First is Business as Usual

Historical trends continue
Sounds benign, but we all know that BAU in America is inefficient, sprawling growth
As you can see in this image, one farm remains in this simplified landscape, but it is threatened by a bulldozer

Next we considered what might happen if sprawl gets worse

Could be driven by high housing costs, in urban areas, more remote work opportunities and rural broadband, concerns about rising crime, etc.
This is a future characterized by low-density sprawl
With few farms remaining near cities.
In the image, it’s McMansions and highways as far as the eye can see

Finally, the future we hope for is represented by Better Built Cities

Local development decisions will be the key determining factor in how much farmland is converted, with state and federal policy playing a supporting role
If cities and towns decide to grow more compactly, following “smart growth” principles, new development will be denser and more livable
Redeveloping existing urban spaces can also create great places to live without eating up farmland
Many more farms will remain near cities
In the image you can see that the city is more compact, there’s a wider diversity of transportation options, and farms are far more abundant

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Assumptions Made for the Three Future Scenarios

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Projected Percent Conversion in Business as Usual

Percent of agricultural land projected to be converted to UHD and LDR land uses between 2016 and 2040 in the Business as Usual scenario, by county.

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Projected Percent Conversion in Business as Usual

Percent of agricultural land projected to be converted to UHD and LDR land uses between 2016 and 2040 in the Business as Usual scenario, by county.

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Top 12 States: Acres and Percent Projected Conversion

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Another key finding relates to impacts on our very best land
For previous reports, AFT created the first-ever index of agricultural land quality that explicitly accounts for productivity, versatility, and resiliency.
We call it the PVR index.
We used the PVR index to identify the best land in the country for long-term cultivation and food production.
We call this land Nationally Significant agricultural land.
While this land is concentrated in certain parts of the country, every state has some Nationally Significant land.
What we find in our future projections is that [read slide]
This is true in all three scenarios, but of course in Business as Usual and Runaway Sprawl, far more acres are converted
Choosing a Better Built Cities future would reduce conversion of Nationally Significant land by

3.8 million acres compared to Business as Usual
Nearly 7 million acres compared to Runaway Sprawl

The benefits for agriculture, food security, and the environment would be immense.

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Another key finding relates to impacts on our very best land
For previous reports, AFT created the first-ever index of agricultural land quality that explicitly accounts for productivity, versatility, and resiliency.
We call it the PVR index.
We used the PVR index to identify the best land in the country for long-term cultivation and food production.
We call this land Nationally Significant agricultural land.
While this land is concentrated in certain parts of the country, every state has some Nationally Significant land.
What we find in our future projections is that [read slide]
This is true in all three scenarios, but of course in Business as Usual and Runaway Sprawl, far more acres are converted
Choosing a Better Built Cities future would reduce conversion of Nationally Significant land by

3.8 million acres compared to Business as Usual
Nearly 7 million acres compared to Runaway Sprawl

The benefits for agriculture, food security, and the environment would be immense.

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450,000 acres of coastal farmland and ranchland may be flooded by 2040

State	Acres Projected to Be Flooded by Sea-Level Rise
California	298,500
Louisiana	73,000
Washington	39,300
North Carolina	17,400
Oregon	4,400
Texas	4,000
Maryland	3,600
Virginia	1,600
Delaware	1,600
New Jersey	1,500
Florida	1,300
South Carolina	800
Contiguous U.S.	449,000

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Solar Development Will Also Impact Farmland

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Planning for Agriculture

Inventory resources
Engage farmers and ranchers
Incorporate agriculture into community plans
Implement tools to retain and protect agricultural land

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How can crop diversification support farm viability?

Risk Management and Resilience
Access to Premium Markets
Value-Added Opportunities
Economic and Environmental Synergies

Risk Management and Resilience

Reduces dependence on any one crop and mitigates the risks of market fluctuations, pest outbreaks and extreme weather
Rotational systems incorporating small grains and legumes improve soil health, reducing input costs over time

Access to premium markets

Specialty grains for direct-to-consumer and regional supply chains can offer better margins than commodity markets.
Organic, non-GMO, and regenerative grains can capture price premiums.

Value-Added Opportunities

Growing grains suited for regional milling, malting, or distilling allows farmers to capture additional value within the supply chain.
On-farm processing (e.g., milling, distilling) can create additional revenue streams.

Economic and Environmental Synergies

Small grains, cover crops, and perennial grains improve soil structure and water retention, reducing long-term costs for fertilizers and irrigation.
Well-managed crop rotations support regenerative farming practices that enhance farm resilience.

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How can diversification support farmland preservation?

Economic Viability Reduces Development Pressure
Public and Private Incentives
Stronger Regional Food Systems

Economic Viability Reduces Development Pressure
When farms remain profitable, landowners are less likely to sell land for non-agricultural development.
Programs supporting diversified grain production (e.g., conservation easements, cost-share programs) can help maintain agricultural landscapes.

Public and Private Incentives

State and federal conservation programs support cover cropping and diversified rotations, aligning with land preservation goals.
Some local and regional governments are beginning to recognize the role of diversified agriculture in protecting water quality and soil health, offering incentives for regenerative practices.

Stronger Regional Food Systems

Investing in regional grain economies creates stable markets for farmers, reinforcing the economic case for keeping land in agriculture.
Partnerships with bakers, brewers, and distillers can create long-term demand for regional grains, supporting both economic and conservation goals.

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Our Grain Growing Past Powers the Future

2025 MID-ATLANTIC GRAIN CONFERENCE

MARCH 17, 2025

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Thank you!�

2025 MID-ATLANTIC GRAIN CONFERENCE

MARCH 17, 2025

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