AI �Key to Unlocking Full Potential� of�Defense Wargaming 

Matt Caffrey

24 June 2023

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matthewbcaffreyjr@gmail.com

(937) 903-2970 (mobile)

https://sites.google.com/view/matthew-b-caffrey-jr

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Why Listen to Me

• DoD Civil Servant – positions
• AFRL Liaison to AFMC for Wargaming
• Lead Wargaming, Air Force Research Laboratory
• Professor of Wargaming, Air Command & Staff Col
• Research Associate for Wargaming, School for Advanced Airpower Studies
• Col USAFR (ret.) – assignments
• Senior Reservist, AFRL, Info Directorate
• Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)
• Designer/Author/Speaker
• Designer of a dozen wargames; ed & decision supt
• Co-author, Gulf War Fact Book
• Three chapters, many articles, hundreds of talks

Disclaimer

• The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the USAF, AFMC or AFRL.

BLUF

As run-away climate change makes the world a less stable place our traditional national security advantages are eroding.

We can regain an advantage, and strengthen our traditional ones, by jumping a generation ahead of our adversaries in wargaming.

AI is the main key to gives us the opportunity to do so.

Revolutions, like murder, Need Motive & Opportunity

Previous Wargame Revolutions

Revolutions, like murder, Need Motive & Opportunity

Next Wargame Revolution: Rise of the Machines

• Motive
• Less stable world
• Eroding advantages
• Opportunity
• Advances in AI
• Advances in mobile computing
• Proliferation of elements of power simulation

A Less Stable World

• There has always been climate change.
• Past mass extinctions occurred when the climate changed too fast for natural selection to adapt.
• The climate has been changing since the dawn of civilization.
• The danger comes from the speed of climate change being too fast for societies to adapt:
• Conflict over water
• Climate refugees
• Power shifts

Eroding Advantages

• Arsenal of Democracy
• bury our enemies in stuff
• US produced more munitions than all
• US declining share of Global GDP
• 1950 25%
• 2008 16%
• China increasing share of Global GDP
• 1950 5%
• 2008 15%

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Eroding Advantages

• American Way of War
• More Tech – Less Blood
• Declining Share of:
• Patents
• STEM graduates
• 2019
• US 33,759
• China 49,498
• 2025
• US 39,959
• China 77,179

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Opportunities

AI,�Improvements and Proliferation

Mobile Computing

All of Nation Sim Gaming

Each synergize the other two!

Why AI is Important?

Each war is one pass through a series of chance events; however, what ultimately happens is not necessarily the most likely outcome.

Outcome with relative likelihood

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

What actually Happened

X

% Casualties

Relative Probability

AI, Improvements and Proliferation

• AI software has improved in effectiveness and expanded in application.
• Why is this an opportunity for wargaming?
• Real wars take a long time and have a spectrum of possible outcomes.
• Manual Wargames have struggled to “go deep” and to capture the spectrum of possible outcomes and their relative likelihood. They typically run out of time and show only one outcome.
• Computer assisted wargames can show spectrum of outcomes, but if they run beyond a single decision cycle outcomes can be very, very wrong.
• Putting a human “in the loop” slows execution to roughly manual wargaming speeds.
• AI can serve the role of subordinate decision makers at computer speeds.

Mobile Computing

• The huge recreational software industry (surpassed film/TV in 2003 or 2005) expands mobility of sim games.
• Executable on notebook computers, tablets, smart phones.
• Network downloadable and team play easy.
• Why is this an opportunity for defense wargaming?
• Value of wargaming = value of each wargame X number of wargames.
• Easier forming of wargame teams.
• Innovation tools are in the hands of the innovators.

All of Nation Sim Gaming

• Proliferation of serious and recreational nonmilitary sim games:
• Serious-- MBA programs, climate change, disaster relief etc.
• Recreational -- Civilization, _____ Tycoon, Tropico etc.
• Why is this an opportunity for wargaming?
• Adversaries move to “gray zone” war
• Friendly interest in all of nation/alliance
• Help explore possible outcomes of Minimally Evasive Warfare

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Putting it all together

Operate inside our adversaries OODA loop at every level through developing decision makers that formulate, evaluate and implement actions more quickly at all levels:

• Strategic:
• Conduct deep national competition wargaming/planning.
• Increase impact, speed and endurance of innovations while reducing costs.
• Operational:
• Project the end of each war before the beginning and quickly spot when there is a divergence from expectations.
• Supplement BDA with Operational Assessment.
• Tactical:
• Rehearse in route to execution.
• Create virtual veteran battle leaders.

Achieving the Revolution

Organize: Establish an entity to lead common efforts.

Train: Adapt UK approach.

Equip: Advanced tools to promote interoperability & collaboration.

Organize

No one in charge is costly:

• Each fighter squadron should not field their next generation fighter
• Who develops DoD training requirements when each entity serves their boss?
• Who developed tools, references, common standards?

DoD Wargaming has fighter squadrons but no Air Combat Command

• Who do allied wargame organizations talk to?
• Who helps develop allied/friendly wargame capabilities?

DWAG a start, common repository, forum invaluable:

• Still, DWAG an additional duty

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First step in revolution is designating/creating a lead organization

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Train

UK is taking a systematic approach:

• UK is currently examining their “Defense Enterprise” and establishing which billets need to know what about wargaming.
• UK will then establish the knowledge level of current incumbents and their rough turnover rate to establish an initial and annual training requirement.

The US takes a similar approach to the training needs for cooks.

If training is necessary to ensure quality cooking it should be necessary to ensure effective wargaming – effective war – effective peace.

Equip

Adapting tech from civilian industry & allies key to WWII victory in the air, but:

• Going from DC-3 to C-47 required about 50 modifications.
• The P-51 had an UK engine, but it was a US airframe.

Adapting tech from the civilian recreational software industry will be a key to achieving the tools needed for the next generation of wargaming, but:

• Unlikely any one commercial product will be optimal “as is” (see DC-3).
• Commercial conventions and attributes may be more helpful than individual products, i.e. networked play, execution on mobile platforms etc.
• We should also be alert for parts or products we can acquire from our friends.

What Will Third Gen Wargames Enable

• Every decision cycle has a wargame capable of executing within that decision cycle.
• Decision makers have access to wargames that are as mobile as they are.
• Common interface conventions will enable users to easily go from an ed wargame to a decision support wargame to professional development wargame – minimizing time to learn game – maximizing time to learn war.
• Innovations have greater impact, faster, at a lower cost, and adversaries will take longer to mitigate them.
• Forecast of War outcome before war begins, updated with real data as war progresses – changes in outcome projected and diagnosed.

Will Our Adversaries Be Able To Catch Up Quickly?

Unlikely

• China: Spending money and talent on wargame software but, culturally failure is not acceptable, so learning is limited.
• Russia: While the USSR had a strong and deep wargaming culture,
• Staff colleges closed with the fall of the USSR. First open source mention I found of Russian wargaming was in 2020.
• USSR techniques focused on movement and kinetics – not consistent with their current gray zone focus.
• Iran: While very little is known, at least at the unclass level
• If there were any US trained wargamers they were most likely killed during their revolution.
• Current wargaming appears to analytical wargaming among OR PhDs.

Will Our Adversaries Be Able To Catch Up Quickly?

Unlikely – But:

• China: Infrastructure in place if attitudes are changed.
• Russia: Soviet wargaming was eclipsed before WWII, but recovered by mid war, led the world by 1946.
• Iran: Very little is known, at least at the unclass level
• Most (all?) literature on wargaming in public domain.
• Intellectual foundation exists.

Conclusion

• If history is a reliable guide, jumping a generation ahead of our adversaries will help us increase the odds of success in war, at a lower cost in lives, time and treasure.
• Such an edge may help us achieve the highest level of victory –�a just and lasting peace.