MODELING THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS

Keith Wiebe

Senior Research Fellow

International Food Policy Research Institute

with IFPRI’s IMPACT modeling system

Google Modeling Talks

18 November 2025

What are food systems?

• Food systems comprise the entire value cycle from resources to production, distribution, consumption, and the social & economic & governance systems in which they are embedded
• complex
• interlinked
• uncertain
• time lags
• 🡪 need to plan today for the food systems of the future

Key challenges

• Populations continue to rise – but not everywhere
• People are eating more as their incomes rise
• Hunger and micronutrient deficiencies persist, overweight and obesity are increasing
• Land and water resources are under pressure
• Productivity growth is slowing
• Climate change is affecting crop yields (and other things)
• Geopolitical instability complicates these challenges

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IFPRI

International Food Policy Research Institute

Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit

What questions are we trying to answer?

• Will we be able to produce enough food in the future?
• Will we be able to afford healthy diets?
• Will we be able to protect the planet?

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More specifically,

• How will changes in population, income, and preferences affect food demand?
• How will changes in technology and climate affect food production?
• How will changes in demand and production affect access to food?
• How will changes in food production affect use of land and water?

What can we know about the future of food systems?

• No crystal ball
• Explore alternative scenarios and their logical implications to inform decision making
• Foresight is not new
• farmers, corporations, armies
• based on experience and expectations
• More difficult for food systems
• technical challenges
• institutional challenges
• but also opportunities

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What is foresight?

Thinking about the future to inform decision making today

Statistical analysis

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Learning from the past

£400?

£1000?

£200?

£0?

2050

www.cgiar.org

“All models are wrong,

but some are useful”

– George Box

Source: Wiebe et al. (2025), https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175535

Examples of economic models of the food system

• The IMPACT model developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
• The AIM model developed by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (Japan)
• The CAPRI model developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
• The ENVISAGE model developed originally at the World Bank
• The GLOBIOM model developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
• The MAGNET model developed by Wageningen University & Research
• The MAgPIE model developed by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
• The RIAPA model developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

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… with a wide variety of applications informing dialog and decision-making at multiple scales

Modeling alternative futures

Adapted from Nelson et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2014)

Poverty

Hunger

Environment

www.cgiar.org

IFPRI’s IMPACT modeling framework

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• International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade

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• Interconnected system of models (biophysical & economic, micro to macro)

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IFPRI’s IMPACT modeling framework

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Highly disaggregated by geography and commodity

Source: Robinson et al. (2024), https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148953

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

• SSP1 – Low Challenges
• SSP2 – Intermediate Challenges
• SSP3 – High Challenges
• SSP4 – Adaptation Challenges Dominate
• SSP5 – Mitigation Challenges Dominate

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Population and income projections for SSP2

Note: CWANA is Central and West Asia and North Africa, ESA is East and Southern Africa, LAC is Latin America and the Caribbean, SA is South Asia, SEA is Southeast and East Asia, WCA is West and Central Africa, ROW is Rest of World. Sources: IIASA (2024) for population and OECD (2024) for GDP.

CWANA

WCA

ESA

LAC

ROW

SEA

SA

CWANA

WCA

ESA

LAC

ROW

SEA

SA

Source: Fuglie et al. (2020), https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1393-1

Climate change in historical context

Source: Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Agriculture

The entire history of agriculture has taken place in a period of relatively stable temperatures.

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

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Key insights

• Climate change impacts will vary by crop and region
• E.g., at the global scale, maize is more vulnerable than wheat
• Tropical regions are more vulnerable than temperate regions
• Extreme events will become more frequent
• Socioeconomic factors will continue to be major drivers of change through mid-century

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Recent IMPACT projections to 2050

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100755

(and other recent studies)

https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019

Key insights

The future of food demand

• Rising faster than population
• Rising faster for animal-source foods, fruits & vegetables, and oils & sugars than for cereals and roots & tubers
• Rising faster in LMICs than in HICs

Source: Cenacchi et al. (2025), https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175534

The composition of diets is changing

Cereals

Roots & Tubers

Animal Products

Pulses

Fruits & Vegetables

Oils & Sugars

Others

CWANA = Central & West Asia & North Africa; ESA = East & Southern Africa; LAC = Latin America & Caribbean; SA = South Asia;

SEA = Southeast & East Asia; WCA = West & Central Africa; ROW = Rest of World. Source: IFPRI, IMPACT v3.4, SSP2-RCP7.0-IPSL.

www.cgiar.org

Sources of cereal production growth

CWANA = Central & West Asia & North Africa; ESA = East & Southern Africa; LAC = Latin America & Caribbean; SA = South Asia;

SEA = Southeast & East Asia; WCA = West & Central Africa; ROW = Rest of World. Source: IFPRI, IMPACT v3.4, SSP2-RCP7.0-IPSL.

Area growth remains a major source of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while yield growth dominates in other regions.

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Climate change impacts�direct and final impacts on rainfed maize yields

Final impacts with changes in technology and markets (YTOT) compared to DSSAT results, by region.

Direct impacts without changes in technology and markets, from DSSAT.

Source: IFPRI (work in progress, results subject to change), based on SPAM, DSSAT, RCP7.0, MRI-ESM2-0, no CO₂ fertilization, IMPACT v4.1.4.

Cereal yields continue to rise

CWANA = Central & West Asia & North Africa; ESA = East & Southern Africa; LAC = Latin America & Caribbean; SA = South Asia; SEA = Southeast & East Asia; WCA = West & Central Africa; CGSIX = Six developing regions; ROW = Rest of World. Source: IFPRI, IMPACT v3.4, SSP2-RCP7.0-IPSL.

Cereal yields will continue to increase in all regions, but remain low in Africa.

www.cgiar.org

Cereal area increases in many regions

CWANA = Central & West Asia & North Africa; ESA = East & Southern Africa; LAC = Latin America & Caribbean; SA = South Asia; SEA = Southeast & East Asia; WCA = West & Central Africa; CGSIX = Six developing regions; ROW = Rest of World. Source: IFPRI, IMPACT v3.4, SSP2-RCP7.0-IPSL.

Cereal area will increase most rapidly in Latin America and West & Central Africa. It will increase more slowly in Asia and the Rest of World.

www.cgiar.org

Cereal production and demand

CWANA = Central & West Asia & North Africa; ESA = East & Southern Africa; LAC = Latin America & Caribbean; SA = South Asia; SEA = Southeast & East Asia; WCA = West & Central Africa; CGSIX = Six developing regions; ROW = Rest of World. Source: IFPRI, IMPACT v3.4, SSP2-RCP7.0-IPSL.

Cereal demand will exceed production in most developing regions (except Latin America), while production will exceed demand in the Rest of World.

www.cgiar.org

Cereal trade by region

Net exports

Net imports

CWANA = Central & West Asia & North Africa; ESA = East & Southern Africa; LAC = Latin America & Caribbean; SA = South Asia; SEA = Southeast & East Asia; WCA = West & Central Africa; ROW = Rest of World. Source: IFPRI, IMPACT v3.4, SSP2-RCP7.0-IPSL.

Net imports of cereals are projected to increase in most developing regions, except Latin America.

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Policies and investments make a difference

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Combined impacts on hunger

Source: Sulser et al. (IFPRI, 2021)

Climate change reverses progress in reducing hunger,

but can be offset by investments in agricultural R&D, resource management, & market infrastructure.

www.cgiar.org

Investments and tradeoffs between food system objectives

“High+RE” = increased agricultural research; “IX+WUE” and “SWHC” = improved water management; “”, “RMM” = improved infrastructure; “COMP” = comprehensive investment package. Source: IFPRI, IMPACT model version 3.3, (Sulser et al. 2021).

www.cgiar.org

Key findings

• Food demand is projected to increase by 30-40%, especially in SSA and SA
• Production is projected to keep pace
• Slowed by climate change, so more costly to achieve
• higher prices and more area expansion => impacts on food security and environment
• Impacts vary widely by crop and location
• LMICs are projected to become more dependent on food imports
• Importance of links, tradeoffs, and synergies
• Importance of integrated perspective – across space, time, domains

Things we’re working on

• Incorporating the dynamics of land use change
• Improving our modeling of water
• Bringing in climate variability and extreme events in addition to longer-term changes
• Improving our modeling of nutritional outcomes
• Capturing distributional issues
• Making our results more accessible
• Speeding up computation to support real-time dialog with decision makers
• And others... (AI, higher spatial resolution, looking beyond 2050, etc.)

Links to other Foresight & Policy modeling work at IFPRI

• RIAPA country-level economywide models

https://www.ifpri.org/project/riapa-model/

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• SPAM Spatial Production Allocation Model

https://www.mapspam.info/

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Informing choices

• Importance of rigorous analysis and engagement with stakeholders
• Importance of an iterative process
• Not to determine policy and investment priorities but to inform them

Source: Wiebe et al. (2025), https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175535

Selected publications

• Rockström et al. (2025) The Lancet
• Mishra et al. (2025) Lancet Planetary Health
• Wiebe and Gotor (2025) IFPRI
• Rosegrant et al. (2024) Global Food Security
• Sulser et al. (2021) IFPRI
• Sulser et al. (2021) Am. J. Clinical Nutrition
• Springmann et al. (2018) Nature
• Hasegawa et al. (2018) Nature Climate Change
• IFPRI (forthcoming 2026) Global Outlook Report

2026 Global Food Systems Outlook Report

IFPRI (forthcoming, 2026)

• Recent food system trends and drivers of change
• Global food system outlook to 2050
• Outlook by region
• Outlook by commodity

Thanks

Keith Wiebe

k.wiebe@cgiar.org