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A HISTORICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL LENS INTO THE LONG-RUNNING CONFLICT IN THE GREAT LAKES

Lecture by Johnmark Njihia 11/06/2025

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Itinerary

Prelude to the conflict

Precolonial Congo

Berlin Conference, Leopold

Independence

Congo Crisis

Mobutu and Zairianism

Rwanda Genocide and 1^st Congo War

Refugee Crisis

Mobutu Tacit Support???

Cross-border reprisal

2^nd Congo War

Laurent Kabila

How to not get murdered by Child soldiers

Road to peace????

Joseph Kabila

Ghosts of the past

2012!!!

The Here and Now!!!

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1. PRELUDE TO THE CONFLICT

Precolonial Congo to the Rwanda Genocide

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i) Precolonial DRC

Big Bang/Let there be (lol!!!)
Good ol’ Pangea
Bantu Capital
Various Bantu Kingdoms

Kongo Kingdom
Luba Kingdom
Lunda, Yeke
TransAtlantic Slave Trade

Portuguese Influence and Christianity

Two-state solution???
Trans-atlantic slave trade

Long Decline of African Kingdoms
European Enlightenment, Colonization of the Americas, and the Spillover

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ii) Berlin Conference of 1885 & The Congo Free State

Rules-based Gentlemanly plunder???
‘to sivilize them and shieee’
HM Stanley
International Congo Society
Congo (un)Free State (1885 – 1908)
Extraction Economy – Red Rubber
Human Rights Abuses on a massive scale
Pushback by activists and authors in Europe
Local and International Pressure mounts on Leopold
Belgian Parliament rescinds Leopold’s private claim
Belgian Congo (1908-1960)
Q: Why was Ethiopia spared?

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iii) Independence

DRC achieved independence in 1960
Fragmented from the start
Had been massively underdeveloped by Belgium

No African officers in Army!
Only 30 graduates!!
Only 3 African managers in entire civil Service!!!

Semi-presidential system
Federalism vs Unitary Government
Calls for Secession
Shaky foundation from the start….

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iv) The Congo Crisis (1960 -1965)

Katanga Secession and Moise Tshombe
Kasai Secession and subsequent Luba Massacre
UN Intervenes (at the behest of the Congolese)
Lumumba demands UN do more
Lumumba asks for US/UN/Western support
Janssens Dismissal (and the Africanization of the Force Publique)
Soviet Support!!!!!
Kasavubu – Lumumba spat
Kasavubu – Mobutu alliance and Lumumba put under house arrest
Assasination of Lumumba
Mobutu’s second coup and Consolidation of power (1965)

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v) Mobutu Sese Sseko

‘at least he’s not commie’
Darling of the West
Widespread poverty
Hyperinflation
Sporadic jungle militias, but relative stability in DRC
Pro-western stance
“Africanization”
Numerous Anti Mobutu Factions emerge, both within and without
End of Cold war = Beginning of end for Mobutu

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2. RWANDA GENOCIDE!!!!

And the Spillover into DRC

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i) Cut down the Tall trees

Hutu – Tutsi cultural relations
Exacerbation of Ethnic tensions by colonial rule
Rwanda Civil War (1990-1994)
Jovenel Habyerimana plane crash
Interahamwe and the Tutsi Genocide
100 days of a systemic Killing machine!!!! (north of 800k)
RPF and KAGAME victory
Hutu Refugee flee Eastern DRC (fearing reprisal)

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ii)1^st Congo War

Hutu Refugees Fleeing into Zaire included Interahamwe/RAF
They use the camps for regrouping and recruiting
Attacks and massacres against Banyamulenge Tutsis by RAF/ZAF/Fleeing Interahamwe
Start launching cross – border attacks into Rwanda
Rwanda sees security threat; Mobutu tacitly supports the Hutu rebels
For UG, Sudan-backed rebels in N.E DRC pose threat
For Angola, UNITA rebels were given safe haven by Mobutu
For Chad, intervened coz France
For Burundi, the FAB is predominantly Tutsi
Leader of movement – Laurent Kabila, veteran anti – mobutu Marxist with years of Guerilla xP
All invade Zaire in 1996 and by mid 1997 they closed in on Kinshasa
Huge massacre (esp against Hutu refugees) from the ensuing advance
Mobutu flees, dies later in Rabat
Laurent declares President

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iii) Laurent Desire Kabila

Lifelong Marxist
Guerilla fighter
Che Guevara Stan
Backed by Museveni and Nyerere
Leader of AFDL (after assassination of Kisase Ngandu)
Takes power in 1997
Uninterested in peace talks (Luanda Accord etc)
DRC army and Government dominated by foreigners (eg Kaberebe)
Wants out from UG/RW alliance and sends all Foreign military out
RDC (Rally for Congolese Democracy) – Militia after mutiny by Tutsi battalion in 1998. They take Goma and Bukavu. Supported and armed by Rw.
RW and UG invade again in 1998 – Operation Kitona; Led by Kaberebe
Rw invades on the pretext of protecting Tutsis (basically wanted better vassal)
Beginning of Second Congo war

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3. 2^nd Congo War (the African World War)

Deadliest Conflict since WW2

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i) Not Business as Usual

UG and RW invaded DRC hoping it’d be as first time
Wrong calculation; Kabila had lots of support. Former allies now switch to Kabila’s side

Angola
Zimbabwe (Air Support)
Zambia
Libya (arms)
Namibia
Operation Kitona ended in Dec 1998 when Rwandan and UG troops were airlifted from Angola – with the help of UNITA, commanded by Kabarebe.
But the War Carried on!!!!
Both Rwanda and Uganda supported and armed numerous armed groups in DRC (eg Bemba In Northern DRC, the LRM, etc)
Meatgrinder: >5 million dead
Deadliest war since WW2
30,000 ‘Kadogos’
Occassional Rwanda – Uganda alliance infighting (at Kisangani in Aug 1999)
Dragged on for too long
Laurent held the fort but assassinated by guard in 2001

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ii) Not Pro Bono!!

Many African countries that supported Kabila in 2^nd Congo War got mining concessions
Inc. Zimbabwe
The war bankrupted Zim
Hence this was was a forerunner to Mugabe’s land reclamation and the downward spiral that plagues Zim to this day

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Rape as a weapon of war in both Wars!!!!

Most widespread use of sexual violence as a weapon of war in any modern conflict
Both sides….
UNIVERSAL!!!
Harrowing UN Mapping Report on DRC 1993-2003
Various ICC convictions
Bemba!!!!

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iii) Joseph Kabila

Appointed president after dad died
“path of least resistance”
Was more interested in Peace than Pops
Agreed to Pretoria accords
UG and RW started to withdraw troops
Rebel leaders brought into Government (eg Bemba)
New Constitution adopted, with elections and shieee
Kabila elected prez in 2006 and 2011
After long constitutional tussle, doesn’t run in 2018 election.
Note; after Pretoria accords, UG took a backseat, but RW continued arming and training armed groups in E. DRC, according to multiple credible sources.
POWDER KEG!!!

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4. Road to Peace???

The Aftermath of 2^nd Congo War

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i) M23

A successor of Tutsi/Banyamulenge guerillas in E. DRC
Primarily fought against FARDC and FDLR (a Hutu Militia and remnant of Interahamwe)
Backed by Rwanda
Took Goma in 2012 with the help of Rwanda
As a result, Rwanda faces massive wetern Backlash and sanctions so withdraws support
M23 is integrated into Congolese army in exchange for promises of Tutsi protection
In 2021, M23 resurges and picks up arms again…..
Next strategy for Kagame? Court the west…….

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ii) Paul Goebells Kagame (the PR phase)

Troop contributions
‘we are stable and shieee’
‘Singapore and Shieeee’
“migrant” deals with UK etc
Putin Playbook

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iii) Mineral Extraction in m23 territories

According to UN report, m23 makes $800,000 per day from coltan mines and others in the regions they control in the Kivus
Last year, RW made >$1 Billion from export of Coltan and rare earth minerals (I wonder from where lol)
Numerous HR abuses including child miners
“Blood Coltan????”
Proceeds finance m23, and it has military grade weapons. Very competent Non state actor

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4. The Here and Now!!!!

M23/RAF offensive from Jan 2025

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i) m23 captures Goma

Congo River Alliance
Advancing m23 overpowered FARDC, SADC troops and Wazalendo Militias
Rwanda Support (Plausible Deniability)
Capture Goma on Jan 25
Capture Bukavu in a few days
Foreign mercenaries overran…
Deescalation efforts by various fronts
Ceasefire reached in Feb 25
SADC, EAC efforts for peace

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