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WWW.BROKENSCIENCE.ORG

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IRREPLICABILITY

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JOHN P.A. IOANNIDIS (2005)

�WHY MOST PUBLISHED RESEARCH FINDINGS ARE FALSE

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RAISE STANDARDS FOR PRECLINICAL CANCER RESEARCH

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C. GLENN BEGLEY

LEE M. ELLIS

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“

“When predictive value is replaced with consensus as determinant of a model’s validity, science becomes nonsense.”

- GREG GLASSMAN

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SILLY SOLAR SYSTEM

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ALEX BEREZOW: VETERAN SCIENCE JOURNALIST

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FROM JEFF GLASSMAN

TO WILLIAM M. BRIGGS

JEFF

GLASSMAN

DAVID

STOVE

ET

JAYNES

WILLIAM M.

BRIGGS

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JEFF

GLASSMAN

  • Electrical engineer, head of internal research and development at Hughes Aircraft Company.
  • Evolution in Science (1992)
  • Hated Karl Popper.
  • Definition of “Modern Science”
  • Pushed Stove on me.

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“

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- KARL POPPER

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“I do not believe in definitions, and I do not believe definitions lead to exactness. Science, I do not try to define it. Definitions are either unnecessary or unconscious conventional dogmas.”

“Popper eschews definitions and then defines things. You can find all sorts of contradictions in Popper.”

- JEFF GLASSMAN

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MODERN SCIENCE

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“FIVE KEY CRITERIA OF MODERN SCIENCE”

  1. Modern Science is the source and repository of objective knowledge.
  2. Knowledge silos in models, graded by predictive strength - conjecture, hypothesis, theory, and law.
  3. Models map a current fact to a future, unrealized, fact as a prediction.
  4. Predictive strength is the sole determinant of validation.
  5. Validation and method are entirely independent.

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DAVID

STOVE

  • Philosopher and Essayist.
  • Probability and Hume’s Inductive �Skepticism (1971)
  • Popper and After (1982)
  • The Rationality of Induction (1986)
  • Hated Popper.
  • Gives all the rationale needed to reject everything the irrationalists offered.
  • Makes a powerful case for science grounding in probability theory.
  • Neuters the destructive influence of Hume’s inductive skepticism.

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ET

JAYNES

  • Physicist
  • Probability Theory The Logic of Science (2003)
  • Well developed probability logic.
          • LaPlace
          • Jeffreys
          • Cox
          • Pólya
          • Shannon
          • Stove
  • Hated Popper.

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WILLIAM

M. BRIGGS

  • Philosopher with a PhD in Mathematics.
  • If baby cries then we beat him.
  • Uncertainty (2016)
  • Everything You Believe is Wrong (2022)
  • The Price of Panic (2020)
  • Breaking the Law of Averages: Real-Life Probability and Statistics in Plain English (2008)
  • “The Replacement for Hypothesis Testing” (2019)
  • Author of the single best sentence in the history of philosophy of science!

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“

- WILLIAM BRIGGS, UNCERTAINTY.

“Chance is unpredictability which is a synonym of ignorance, which is what random means.”

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