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Oh Canada!

Staying in tune with the Neighbo(u)rs to the North

rovemarketing.ca

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National impact hits harder for some
Canadian perspective
Traveler & Accommodation trends
Your perspective
Digging into your data
Let’s talk action
Next steps – keeping a pulse on tourism > tariffs

Agenda

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National impact hits harder for some

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Canada is the top source of international visitors to the United States

Source: U.S. Travel Association

In 2024 Canada brought…

20.4 million visits
$20.5 billion in spending
Supporting 140,000 American jobs

The top 5 most visited states by Canadians—Florida, California, Nevada, New York and Texas

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�

Bigger impact for key markets and smaller communities

Video Link

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Canadian perspective…

From eh to nah�

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Overwhelming sense of Canadian unity

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U.S. tourists have historically been the least desired, and deteriorating international relations may further this sentiment

Tourists from outside my province

Tourists from my province

Question: In your opinion, should Canada attract more of the following types of visitors in the future?

Overseas tourists

Tourists from the U.S.

U.S. remained the least desired tourism inbound market

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Source: Leger – Political Tensions Impact Travel Study

Which Canadians most likely to reduce their travel to U.S.

Older Canadians (55+) are the most likely to cut back on U.S. travel (52% vs. 46% among 35-54 and 41% among 18-34).

Ontarians (52%) are the most likely to reduce their U.S. travel, while residents of Quebec (41%) and Atlantic Canada (42%) are the least likely to change their plans.

Higher-income households ($100K+) are significantly more likely to reduce their travel to the U.S. (57% vs. 49% among $60K-<$100K and 37% among <$60K).

Nearly half of Canadians less likely to visit the U.S. in 2025

With ongoing political tensions and shifting Canada-U.S. relations, nearly half of Canadian travellers (48%) say they are less likely to visit the U.S. in 2025 compared to last year. In contrast, only one in ten (10%) say they are more likely to travel south, while 43% report no change in their U.S. travel intentions.

Who is Most Likely to Reduce their Travel to the U.S.? –Older Canadians, Ontarians and higher income households

For those avoiding U.S. trips, domestic Canadian travel is the top alternative. Six-in-ten (61%) of those less likely to visit the U.S. plan to explore Canada instead – 30% will travel within their home province, while 31% will visit another province within Canada. Meanwhile, one-third (33%) are planning to travel outside North America, and 6% plan to skip travel altogether. Manitoba/Saskatchewan residents are the most likely to travel within Canada instead (75%), while those from British Columbia and Quebec are more likely to travel to a country outside North America.

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Source: Trading Economics

Canadians turn their backs on U.S. travel, as return trips plunge: StatCan

Political headwinds only adding to the steep cost of travel to U.S.

During a wave of uncertainty, one thing is evident—Trump’s policies and pronouncements have produced a negative sentiment shift toward the US among international travelers. We expect the correlating decline in international travel to the US to be strongest in 2025. Persisting degrees of impact are expected throughout the remainder of Trump’s second term.

The US travel sector faces a mix of headwinds: 1) negative sentiment, 2) border and immigration policies and uncertainty, 3) reduced competitiveness with a strong dollar, 4) economic slowing in Canada and Mexico, 5) hasty efforts at government efficiency, and now 6) uncertainty on the domestic economy.

Charged by these challenges, Tourism Economics’ latest Global Travel Service update includes a stark downgrade for inbound international to the US:

In December 2024, the forecast called for an 8.8% growth in international visitation, with a 16.0% increase in visitor spending. In comparison, this updated outlook represents a substantial setback with the full recovery of international visits to the US pushed out to 2029.
We now expect a 9.4% decline in international visitor arrivals for 2025, led by a 20.2% decline in visitation from Canada.

We forecast international visitor spending in the US to decline 5.0%, a loss of $9.0 billion in spending this year alone.

This loss includes $6.4 billion of decreased spending in destinations, plus $2.5 billion of lost transportation spending.

Leisure travelers have options. Negative shifts in sentiment toward the US may adversely impact its global market share, resulting in a 1.5 percentage point market share loss by 2026.

Canadians turn their backs on U.S. travel, as return trips plunge: StatCan

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Traveler trends

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Air traveler trends

Source StatsCanada

Decrease in Canadians returning from the U.S

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Source: OAG

Air traveler trends

Decrease in airline capacity from Canada to US

Airline capacity between Canada and the US has been reduced through to October 2025, with the most significant cuts occurring during the peak travel months of July and August.
Passenger bookings on Canada – US routes are currently down by 70% compared to the same period last year.

The latest weekly update of OAG schedules data suggests that airline capacity between Canada and the US remains broadly unchanged for the summer season. However, a closer look at recent weeks reveals a downward trend in airline capacity and a sharp decline in forward bookings.

Scheduled Airline Capacity from Canada to the US

Comparing the total number of scheduled one-way seats between the two countries filed on 3rd March and those filed on 24th March, the table below shows that over 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines operating between the two countries through to the end of October. The most noticeable cuts are in July and August - the two peak summer season months - where airlines have cut capacity by some 3.5%.

Using forward booking data from a major GDS supplier, we've compared the total bookings held at this point last year with those recorded this week for the upcoming summer season. The decline is striking — bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September. This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.

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Auto Traveler Trends

Source StatsCanada

Decrease in Canadians returning from the U.S

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Source: Bridge and Tunnel Operators Association (BTOA)

Note: Need to factor in that Easter was in March in 2024

Auto Traveler Trends

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Accommodation trends

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Compared to Q1 last year the share of Canadians staying in NYS short-term rentals has declined, slightly sharper in Upper New York State

The percentage illustrates the Canadian share among all reviews with identified countries of origin, within the designated areas .

Data sourced from all AirBnB bookings with review/market of origin information. This represents about 35% of reviews with country address/total reviews in NYS.

Defined Upper New York State

Buffalo/Niagara Falls

Adirondacks

Lower Hudson Valley

Finger Lakes

Rochester

Albany/Saratoga

Syracuse

Defined Lower New York State

New York

New York State Area

Long Island

Lower New York State

-9.7% decrease

-8.2% decrease

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Buffalo/Niagara Falls & Adirondacks sees the biggest decline in Canadian short-term renters in Q1 2025

The percentage illustrates the Canadian share among all reviews with identified countries of origin, within the designated areas .

Data sourced from all AirBnB bookings with review/market of origin information. This represents about 35% of reviews with country address/total reviews in NYS.

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Key Data

Directly integrate into Property Management Systems
Data from 13+ million OTA listings
Directly sourced Amadeus hotel data
Accurate supply data from U.S. & international markets
Trusted by 300+ DMOs

The most trusted source for short term rental and hotel data

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New York State Hotel Feeder Markets

By Country of Origin as of April 14

Canadian hotel bookings to New York State were down -26% YoY in Q1, the steepest drop among all major international feeder markets.
U.S. travel to New York State remained flat to slightly positive (+1%).

Direct Hotel Data: January - March Data as of April 14

Q1 Hotel Data

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Canadian Travel Impacts

Direct data for Canadian bookings made between January 1 - April 13

Following the initial tariff announcement in January, we’ve seen a shift in Canadian booking behavior.
Bookings to the U.S. are down sharply YoY (-32%); Bookings within Canada are up (+6%).

Direct Vacation Rental

Reservations Made by Canadian Travelers

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Canadian Travel Impacts - Focus on Northeast U.S.

Direct data for Canadian bookings made between January 1 - April 13

National Average: down 32%
New York State: down 44%
Other Northeastern states are also seeing steep declines, with Massachusetts (-63%) hit hardest.

Direct Vacation Rental

Reservations Made by Canadian Travelers to Northeastern States

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Canadian Travel Impacts - Pacing - Focus on Northeast U.S.

Direct data as of April 13

New York State and the broader Northeast are seeing steep pacing declines in spring and early summer, with April–June arrivals down as much as -49%.
July and August are pacing well below last year as well, signaling a significant potential impact to peak summer season.

Direct Vacation Rental Reservations

Year-over-Year Pacing from Canadian Travelers

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Here’s the Opportunity! Unlock the Power of Data

Where is the opportunity to boost performance?

Hotel Feeder Market Data for New York State

Direct Hotel Data: Jan - Dec 2025 Data as of April 17

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Forward-Looking Data and Pacing Reports

Track real-time trends in occupancy, guest nights, nights available, and revenue.

Monitor Shifts in Traveler Behavior

Analyze booking curves, feeder markets, and unit type performance to identify shifts in demand.

Optimize for Opportunity

Targeted data-driven campaign strategies.

Navigating Shifts in Travel Demand

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Thank you.

Alyssa Stroker

Manager, Business Development

Alyssa.Stroker@KeyDataDashboard.com

KeyDataDashboard.com

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Your perspective

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Rapport

Canadian Consulate General to New York.pdf – article inNYSTIA newslwetter

�

Canadian Tourists Angered by Tariffs Cancel US Travel Plans | Reuters

New York State starting to feel the impact

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Source: NYSTIA Members

Your Feedback

Our Canadian business is down 80 percent. Canadian customers responding that cancellations are mainly related to political issues.

General Sentiments

Empathy to Rod and New York Golf Trail
Canada being ‘Attacked’
Most all responses were listing politics as reason for not returning – “won’t be back for 4 years”

Passenger and commercial traffic crossing numbers are down but no massive cancellations and delayed booking yet – but this is seasonal related

In some cases where we see lost Canadian visitation – such as NYS Parks reservations – we’re getting back-filled by US visitors.

Negative sentiment is driven by rhetoric around Canadian sovereignty and the widening gap in the exchange rate vs tariffs.

We are hosting the World Canals Conference in September in Buffalo, and we have been informed that no representatives of Canadian Canals or universities will be attending unless they choose to come on their own dime. That is a significant loss. We are also concerned about our cross-border field session-- which so far has generated the most sign ups, but crossing back into the US is a concern.

Jean Mackay, Deputy Director�Erie Canalway National Heritage Corridor

Rod Christian, Founder/Owner

New York Golf Trail

Corey Fram, Director of Tourism

1000 Islands International Tourism Council

More obstacles:

25% tariff, or surtax, is being applied to certain goods imported from the United States into Canada, as of March 4, 2025 (this would be on items exceed personal exemption limit)

Kristy Kennedy, Vice President of Marketing Operations

& Business Development

North Country Chamber of Commerce

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Digging into your data �

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International proportion of total visitor spend varies; but Canadian spend is significant

Visitor Segment | All Markets of Origin | All Card Spend | 2024

	% Domestic Visitor Spend	% International Visitor Spend	Proportion of Canadian Spend / International
Jefferson	86.1%	13.9%	95.9%
Genesee	95.6%	4.4%	82.4%
Warren	96.4%	3.6%	80.5%
Cortland	97.0%	3.0%	74.4%
Oneida	97.6%	2.4%	69.9%
CATS Region	98.0%	2.0%	46.9%
Ulster	98.1%	1.9%	42.8%
Sullivan	98.7%	1.3%	40.8%

Source: Visa

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Canadians generally spend on fuel & dining

Visitor Segment | All Markets of Origin | All Card Spend | 2024

* Visa spend includes hotel & lodging expenditures, but only in destination card charges

	Fuel	Restaurants & Dining	Food & Grocery	Retail
Jefferson	13.4%	15.8%	17.6%	42.4%
Genesee	31.1%	29.4%	9.2%	13.7%
Warren	18.7%	25.5%	10.7%	24.7%
Cortland	49.6%	25.1%	8.9%	2.4%
Oneida	11.7%	24.7%	5.9%	12.8%
CATS Region	39.5%	25.1%	14.1%	7.7%
Ulster	38.5%	25.8%	13.0%	9.9%
Sullivan	19.8%	21.2%	25.2%	8.0%

2024 Expenditures By Canadian Visitors – Top Sectors

Source: Visa

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Early forecast shows little impact on total hotel demand by all markets of origin

Upstate New York

As noted by Tourism Economics, International visitors make up ~7% of all hotel demand across the US.

Actual

Source: STR/Co-Star, 2025, Tourism Economics, Trump & the Travel Industry, webinar April 15, 2025

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March 2025 shows a slight decrease in YoY monthly short-term rental revenue from all markets of origin

Upstate New York

Actual

Source: AirDNA

3214769566

2025 Performance Revenue – Thousand Islands, Warren County, Central New York Regions

Note: YoY analysis needs to factor in the impact of the Solar Eclipse in April 2024

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Source: Azira, 2023 - 2025

Jan 1 – Mar 31, 2023

International Tourist Segment | All Up State Counties (excl. Long Island and New York)

Jan 1 – Mar 31, 2024

Jan 1 – Mar 31, 2025

24% Increase

11% Decrease

Q1 2025 sees a decrease in Canadian mobile device sampling

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Early data shows a slight decrease in proportion of visitors from Ontario while Quebec proportion inches up

Source: Azira, 2023 - 2025

Jan 1 – Mar 31, 2023

Jan 1 – Mar 31, 2024

Jan 1 – Mar 31, 2025

4% Increase - ON

9% Decrease - QC

3% Decrease - ON

8% Increase - QC

International Tourist Segment | All Up State Counties (excl. Long Island and New York)

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Monitoring resident sentiment on international tourism

Source: TravelSat Resident Sentiment Survey

2024 – Resident Sentiment Survey Completes – Finger Lakes Participating Counties

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Let’s talk action�

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Source: Azira, 2023 - 2025

We have added some marketing that acknowledges the current state of affairs.

Instead of hosting Canadian writers in the US as planned, we are doing sales missions to Canada for media and likely for trade as well.

We are refocusing efforts on domestic and delegations from other countries. We are also hearing concerns from other international visitors about coming to the US.

We are planning to send a letter to all of our international speakers and country representatives to share with their staff/colleagues/and potential attendees.

Your feedback

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VISIT CALIFORNIA BOOSTS CANADA OUTREACH

Canada remains one of California’s top international visitor markets, contributing significantly to our tourism economy and culture. In response to shifting sentiment driven by political and economic challenges, Visit California is launching a new campaign in early May celebrating the lasting impact Canadians have had on the Golden State — from IMAX and California rolls to wine and design. To drive bookings, Visit California has partnered with Expedia on a Canada-only promotion offering up to 25% savings on hotels, attractions, and activities. These efforts are part of a $5.2 million marketing investment in Canada.

Outside New York State

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Outside New York State

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Source: MMGY Survey – April 3-5, 2025

Domestic travelers remain a strong market

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Keeping a pulse on tourism > tariffs

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Monitor trends
Newsletter spotlights
Teams channel – information repository
Webinars
Data & advisory services - custom reports

Team New York

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Thanks!�

we are here to help

sally.donovan@rovemarketing.ca

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Rating and Reviews – Review Counts Over Time

Source: TravelSat Ratings and Review

Canadian Market of Origin – All Products – All Review Sites (where market of origin available)

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National importance and impact

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Share of Canadians staying in NYS short-term rentals has declined, sharper in Upper New York State

Source: AirDNA

The percentage illustrates the Canadian share among all reviews with identified countries of origin, within the designated areas

-9.7% decrease

-8.2% decrease

Defined Upper New York State

Buffalo/Niagara Falls

Adirondacks

Lower Hudson Valley

Finger Lakes

Rochester

Albany/Saratoga

Syracuse

Defined Lower New York State

New York

New York State Area

Long Island

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Buffalo/Niagara Falls & Adirondacks sees the biggest decline in Canadian short-term renters in Q1 2025

Source: AirDNA

The percentage illustrates the Canadian share among all reviews with identified countries of origin, within the designated areas