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Designing Solo Games: Quantity to Quality

MORSS Presentation

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution is unlimited.

This Briefing is UNCLASSIFIED

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Agenda

Introductions
Game Overview
Investment Game
Tactical Decision Game
Data Collection and Analysis Plan (DCAP)
A Brief Rabbit Hole on Qualitative Analysis
Output
Experimental Wargaming – Sandia
Lessons Learned
Variations

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Introduction

Ian T. Brown: Wargame Analyst at Group W, an SPA Company

Retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot

Tours as forward air controller, requirements officer
Deployed to Iraq, INDOPACOM, and Afghanistan
Last billet as operations officer for the Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and Future Warfare—extensive educational wargaming work

Independent author/media creator

40+ articles, book reviews, short stories, podcasts, 2 books:

A New Conception of War (2018) on USMC Commandant’s Professional Reading List
Snowmobiles [and] Grand Ideals (2025) - “definitive John Boyd”

Neophyte game designer

Popeye in the Goo micro-game released in spring 2024 as part of INDOPACOM micro-game collection
#Maneuver Warfare: The Card Game - my first commercial design, now available from the Dietz Foundation
Contributions to Littoral Commander series of games
Shape Seize Secure – promotional drone-focused card game developed for SPA

Introductions

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Game Overview

Task:

Evaluating potential future systems for acquisition.
Players could not be spared for the duration of a traditional wargame.
Gather as many individual data points as possible.

Executed multiple sessions, with up to five participants each time.
Game structure (~3 hours)

Introductory material (30 min)
Investment game (45 min)
Tactical Decision Game (TDG) with a Red response (1.5 hr)
Reflection survey (15 min)

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Investment Game

Players were given a deck of capabilities & 450 points to invest to augment an existing force structure.

Can buy the same system multiple times
Many systems had variable payloads
Investment decisions informed by the TDG scenario

Played individually, to maximize independent data points
Players recorded investments on provided spreadsheet

Tracked investments by quantity and effect
Watch out for their math

Card Example

Key

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Tactical Decision Game

What is a TDG?

“The idea behind a TDG is to put you in the role of a commander facing a tactical problem, give you a limited amount of time and information, and require you to develop a plan to solve the problem.”
Analogous to a Decision Forcing Case, but not usually rooted in history.
There is no one right answer.

Player prompt:

Given a tactical task (amphibious landing) and IPB on expected Red Behavior.
Written: Describe your CONOP by phase. Explicitly identify which systems you are using in each phase. Track these via spreadsheet.
Verbal: Outbrief by phase.

Red response

Red SME developed IPB to constrain behavior
Responded to ideas by phase; players did not get to alter their written plan.

Players asked to reflect on what Red said in the survey.

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Data Collection and Analysis Plan (DCAP)

Dedicated rapporteur
Investment spreadsheet
Survey

Likert scales
Free response

Enabled qualitative analysis (coding)

				Mission Phase			Air						Ground						Surface
System Name	Cost	Quantity	Point Cost	1	2	3	ISR	Fires	C2	Mnvr	FP	Sstn	ISR	Fires	C2	Mnvr	FP	Sstn	ISR	Fires	C2	Mnvr	FP	Sstn
	1													.5
	1								1						1
	1										1
	2												1
	2													1
	4																	1
	12													1
	12												1
	16												1	2
	25												2	2					2
	25								2				2		2				2		2
	200																			4
	200											4

2. Based on the feedback you received during the TDG, how would you have reallocated your investments?

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A Brief Rabbit Hole on Qualitative Analysis

Definitions:

Grounded theory— “an inductive technique of interpreting recorded data about a social phenomenon to build theories about that phenomenon.”
Coding – “a process of classifying and categorizing text data segments into a set of codes (concepts), categories (constructs), and relationships.”
Theoretical Saturation – “when additional data does not yield any marginal change in the core categories or the relationships.”

Great, how do I do that?

While gathering & reviewing your data, develop a list of codes until you & your team feel you’ve reached theoretical saturation (relative to the study questions)
Go through your data and apply codes:

There is software for this: Nvivo, MaxQDA, Quirkos
Or you can do it by hand (colored highlighters, record in Excel)

Make charts & graphs

	Code 1	Code 2	Code 3	Code 4	Code 5
Player 1	1		1		1
Player 2		1		1
Player 3	1	1			1
Player 4		1	1
Player 5		1	1		1
Sum	2	4	3	1	3

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Output

Well constructed data capture leads to well constructed data.
Robust data capture enables the analyst to answer a wide set of questions through targeted research and presentation.
Give your sponsor some graphs—sponsors love graphs.

*All data shown is notional; for example purposes only.

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Experimental Wargaming - Sandia

Credit to Sandia’s “Experimental Wargaming” construct.
Minimal stochasticity & multiple viable avenues
Multiple rounds of playtesting
High staffing to field questions (1:1 or less).

People can’t do math
Need to have answers

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Lessons Learned

Design with DCAP in mind

Directly (e.g., player-led) collect quantitative data
Consider ways to collect qualitative data beyond just notes
Consider, carefully, the shape of your Excel and data entry

“Rushing” can focus players’ attention to key analytic questions and avoid bogging the event down with ancillary concerns.

Allows you to conduct additional runs and collect more data, if that is the goal.
Those ancillary elements should still be explored within the cycle of research.
Everyone always wants more time.
Not without risk: need to find the balance to enable thorough response.

Set clear standards for player responses

The biggest qualitative issue was players recording their answers poorly
Important to give an example of a "good" response
Provide time to fix or clarify responses

Tune threat brief to player needs

Too much detail begets too much detail

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Variations

Solo digital wargame

Pros: Minimal staffing requirement, ease of execution, independent execution
Cons: Lack of human interaction, potential for perceived "black box" regardless of rule transparency, development time
Both: Requires reified model of war

Solo tabletop wargame

Pros: Minimal staffing requirement, easy to play, tactile nature comes with benefits
Cons: Requires execution oversight, requires clear well-written rules
Both: Requires reified model of war

Classic TDG

Pros: Minimal staffing requirement, ease of execution, ease of learning, familiar product
Cons: No human feedback or interaction, more easily dismissed (e.g. 10 minute response), variance in quality of response

No Red Cell

Same game, no Red Cell response
Pros: Easier to run, with less overhead and logistics
Cons: Feels less authoritative, lacks counter-play and conversation

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