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The polycrisis: confluence of challenges �unsolved and unsolvable

2035

2045+

Now

2100+

Mid to low risks /�Solutions on horizon

Mid to high risks /�Solutions not yet available

High risks / �Lack of solutions

Depletion of knowledge creation

Demographic challenges

“Dead-ends” for human evolution

Misuse of dangerous tech

Risk of existentially lethal tech

Risk of a biosphere collapse

Global food �crisis

Crisis of non-sustainability

Social justice

crisis

Disruption to collective sanity & emotional self-regulation

Threat of global war

Crisis of trust and understanding

Challenges to long-term economic recovery

Complexity crisis

Bio-medical crisis

Climate crisis

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Navigating through the “tsunami of global risks”?

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Our civilization goes through an (possible) �evolutionary transition

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Two key questions defining our collective pathway?

Complexity / �scale of development / �size of civilization

Question #1: Will our civilization cope with increasingly complex & volatile global society?

YES

Now

MAYBE

BAU (unequal development with increasing instability that leads to either collapse or breakthrough)

YES

Thrivable / Regenerative / Wisdom Based Society

Singularity (AGI to solve it all, but not for all)

2035-2050+

Timeline

Question #2: Will the emerging society work for “100% of population” and to the benefit of our planet?

Dark Ages or Death of Humanity (collapse of complex civilization due to internal fragility & existential risks)

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The Next 100 Years: A Bridgeway Across The Decisive Century

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Zooming into the 2020s: we have stepped into the “decisive decades” where critical parameters of the future systems will be shaped by all of us – our actions & inactions

Question #1: �Will our civilization cope with increasingly complex & volatile global society?

Question #2: �Will the emerging society work for “100% of population” and to the benefit of our planet?

How will growing social tensions be resolved? �Will there be new major wars?

How will growing diversity be resolved?

How will risks of accelerated tech progress be resolved?

What will be the role & shape of AGI / ASI �And who will control it (if anyone)?

How will economic prosperity be sustained?

What will be the role for 90% of population in tech rich world?

Are our global systems resilient enough?�Or will they collapse in case of new pandemics or global famine?

Can we move from extractive to regenerative models fast enough to avoid massive consequences on the planetary scale (climate, biodiversity etc.)?

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Understan-ding the world of 2025-45

Consolidating 50+ key reports on the “state of future” in the next 20 years, published in 2023-24

Using AI & expert panels to integrate most recent trends including the rise of far right & arrival of Trumpism 2.0

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First part of the “transition drama”: �what to anticipate in 2020s & early 2030s

“Business As Usual”

“Reaching The Singularity”

“Moving Toward Regenerative Futures”

Global Chessboard Realpolitik 🡪 ??
Continuing Environmental Collapse
Hold the Grip over Society through Tech

New social contract for AGI future
(Two pictures: from within tech sector and from outside of it)

Decentralized Activism in the AI era
Mobilizing for Regenerative (Counter) Revolution
(Future is grim, but there’s still hope)

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The world is full of contradictions, and they will not go away soon. �The rise of populist / far right / MXGA is the response to “complexity shock” – and nationalism / racism / fundamentalism will intensify everywhere (we forecasted this 5 years ago..).
The democracy in the US & even in the EU will continue to be suppressed in the interests of economic & geopolitical security – even resulting in new autocracies (e.g. Trump can really succeed in making his election “the last one”)
Militarization will continue – world splitting into several “macroblocks” is almost inevitable (one of the reasons behind Trump’s current actions is not to let Russia begin integrating with China before it’s too late – but it could already be late…).
An attempt to establish new geopolitical order ('New Yalta’) between the U.S., China, Russia and EU based on economic interests (likely to collapse shortly if successful at all)
Various local proxy conflicts between various “big powers” will continue
AI will rapidly be militarized and will result in massive socio-economic instabilities before 2030 (AI “guerilla warfare” and psy-ops).

2020s & early 2030s (1): �Global Chessboard Realpolitik

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2020s & early 2030s (2): �Continuing Environmental Collapse

Climate change will not stop and probably will accelerate. The negligence of the topic (including the US exit from Paris Agreement) will only make things worse. �Climate will drive global food & water security crisis before 2030.
Despite that, public & private actors will prefer adaptation solutions to mitigation in the coming decade, and will still try to minimize their investments.
Pollution will continue and will accelerate. Standards for what means “clean” will drop. Africa / LatAm / South Asia will remain the global dumpster.
Ocean ecosystems will be the biggest victim, aggravated by the underwater mining.

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2020s & early 2030s (3): �Tech Trying to Hold the Grip + New Social Contract

Tech trying to reshape the social contract: maximizing gig economy & “subscription based life” (“life-as-a-service”, LaaS).
Restructuring the financial sector through crypto & fintech. Non-Western economies try to build up economic alternatives (and also establish “data sovereignty” and their own AI governance standards)
Rise of AGI leads to significant collapse of jobs: leading nations search for reskilling solutions. Attempt to smoothen transition through global tax on autonomous systems.
World of AI agents: massive & “fully autonomous” AI economies (non-human economy “bubbles” trigger one of the largest financial crises before early 2030s)
AGI will also accelerate technological progress (transition to AGI-based science)
Potential energy crisis driven by massification of AI? Transformation of energy systems / possible breakthroughs in thermonuclear – or energy becoming a critical boundary

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2020s & early 2030s (3): �New Social Contract – Not Yet?

High volatility in skill demand & “dead ends” for recent most promising careers? (e.g. massive layoffs of IT specialists)
Increased platformization of employment leads to increasingly lower rates for increasingly complex work with no long-term guarantees, with gig workers remaining socially unprotected
Depreciation of investments in massive long education, shift to fast skilling – is there a role at all for the massive higher education? (we may see a massive crisis in this sector by early 2030s)
Reduced opportunities to maintain social status, vulnerability of the middle class (“new Middle Ages?”)
“Cyber-physical divide“ separting those “inside” the large-scale technological transition and those outside of it (the “other” 4 billion?)

This situation will not allow a new social contract to rise fast – the one offered by tech sector will not be “taken” lightly by the society

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2020s & early 2030s (4): �Decentralized Activism in the Age of AI & Regenerative Counter-Revolution

After the initial shock of 2025, social movements will begin regrouping towards more decentralized action w/ new stakeholders including cities & regions. Revival of action-oriented communities + non-state fintech
“Truth” will be one of the most affected spheres, and movements / NGOs will search for alternative solutions to build “networks of trust”
Human rights in the digital era will increasingly be high on movements’ agenda – as response to tech sector push
Growing mental health “epidemic” (driven by attention extraction above all) will trigger search for new ways of individual & collective healing, including normalization of psychedelics
Cities & bioregions will continue experimenting with solutions for climate adaptation & local resilience. Foundations of regenerative economy will be set in the next decade despite lack of mainstream transition

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Crucial event of the early 2030s: �World War 3?

Aggravation of tensions between various nations – above all the US & China – will intensify conflicts over territories & resources all over the planet. At this stage, we are moving to a full-blown global conflict full-speed – seen worst-case “control the agenda of societies” but spiraling out of control
In the full-scale scenario, this situation rolls into the real World War 3 around early 2030s. The full scale deployment of Lethal Autonomous Weapons, thermonuclear and space weaponry will then likely destroy our civilization and likely our species along with a significant part of the biosphere. This will remain the biggest existential risk in the next 10-15 years unless there’s a way to “dissolve” it – which seems more like a miracle now.
Even if WW3 is evaded, we will still likely face a near-WW3 “clash of powers” supported by military AIs.

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If we live past WW3.. �Second part of the “transition drama”: �what to anticipate in 2030s & 2040s

“Post-War” BAU?

“Reaching The Singularity”

“Moving Toward Regenerative Futures”

This won’t BAU anymore – power balance will shift!
Rise of New Statehood & Global Security
Curbing Down Environmental Crisis
New Social Contract Normalized?

Learning to live with AGI
Planetization of tech: integration of tech & regenerative agenda
Expansion into space

Collective healing for collective awakening
New vision for regenerative humanity

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2030s & 2040s (1): �Post-War National & Global Security Architecture

Gen Z / Alpha completely phased out Boomers in politics – attempt of WW3 would be their “last act” and the new cycle of 40-50 years will begin, The principles forming power systems and elites will be redefined in the 2030s.
In the post-WW3 security architecture, Global South will want to “turn tables” and form rules that give opportunities to a larger set of nations. EU will likely be one of the losers (and may even cease to exist, unless it manages to redefine itself). India long-term could be one of the main winners (by avoiding being the active side).
As a result of conflict, LAWs can be banned across the world (also as a result of post WW3 LAW guerilla warfare), and treaties of demilitarization of space can be signed
Experiments with virtual & network nation states will result in creating full-blown post-local nations, including seasteading communities & private space colonies

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2030s & 2040s (2): �Curbing Down the Environmental Crisis

Global South (especially megacities) will massively suffer from climate disregard through food crisis & infrastructure failure – and largest wave of climate migration becomes the reality of mid-2030s.
The growing environmental instability and increased flow of climate migrants will force societies of the Global North to act “for real”. Climate- and biodiversity related finance will expand & new standards will normalize “full cost” economies.
There will be attempts of tech sector to “curb down” climate crisis and improve ecosystem viability through synthetic biology and geoengineering – there’s a significant probability that these will lead to new pandemics & accelerated biosphere degradation.
Locally built regenerative alternatives will start to show massive effect before mid 2030s (including solutions to environmental problems), resulting in the acceleration of “regenerative revolution”

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2030s & 2040s (3): �Learning to Live With AGI

We don’t know if ASI will be achieved – but AGI will become part of the “new normal”. Autonomous vehicles, robotic workforce and smart urban environment will become part of the daily life. Human labor will continue to shift into “humane” sectors.
2030s will see revival of human creativity and protection of human agency from AGI decision control (“Cogntive Sovereignty” imposed by states) – and new boundaries set.
By late 2030s AGI will be aligned with regenerative goals. It will support regenerative transformation of cities & large industrial cities, and will also help govern climate migration.
Space will become a “new frontier”, starting with resource colonization of the Moon in early 2030s. Despite that, space will not be a gamechanger until at least the second half of the 21 century

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2030s & 2040s (4): �Can Human Culture Be Healed?

The rise of AGI as a chance to for “humans to see humans” – as skilling will increase share of workers in care based & regenerative sectors. UBI / UBA gives more people opportunity to move from “scarcity mindset” to “abundance mindset”
Elements of human culture enhancing conflicts within & between nations begin to be “engineered out”.
“Tipping point” for cultural & consciousness transformation in post-crisis society of 2030s. Spiritual dimension (re)integrated in science and “new paradigm” rises.
Neurotech will evolve as the most controversial technology that will either support collective spiritual breakthrough or block it
Human culture is healed for (multi)planetary futures?�First manned expedition to Mars may occur by mid-2030s and �first self-sustained colonies on the Moon may appear by late 2030s

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2045+: Beyond the Horizon

Humans recognize various forms of non-human terrestrial intelligence & enter into direct (AI assisted) contact with it by late 2030s
Rise of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) can be a gamechanger – it will more likely rise as a way to integrate, govern or assist complex human & non-human systems. Integration of ASI & humanity’s collective intelligence will manifest the rise of “planetary super-consciousness” – and will allow to enter into the direct contact with intelligence of the whole Planet Earth by late 2040s.
Rise of post-scarcity economy & harmonious society becomes possible by late 2040s – with humanity entering into the role of Earth regeneration species & planetary stewards.

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Conclusion: Navigating the Decisive Decades

More optimistic future scenarios are not guaranteed, and there are massive existential threats ahead of us. To achieve better outcomes, we need to recognize and absorb factors that could lead the world away from them – and even into our collective decline.
Democracies will be suppressed, and nations will be militarized – our task is to continue growing global communities & systems of support that can counteract their destructive tendencies
Future will be tech rich / AI rich – it is our collective responsibility to ensure that technology enhances life rather than erodes autonomy and dignity
Focus on human consciousness as the point of breakthrough, cultivating empathy & wisdom
Regenerative revolution is delayed but not cancelled – the task now is to create infrastructure for future mass scale transformation

The future is not something to be predicted—it is something to be co-created. The choices made today will ripple forward for generations, defining whether we slide toward collapse, surrender our agency to artificial intelligence dominance, or create a thriving, regenerative civilization that works for all life.

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Protopia: pathways towards desirable & achievable futures

SYSTEM 1:�Industrial / extractive / nationalistic / militaristic …

SYSTEM 2:�Post-industrial / regenerative / glocal /�peace-based …

Transition leaders: entrepreneurs, game changers, activists, artists ..

Bridge holders:�“sponsors” that provide institutional & economic support

Practices of the future: “what” (formats & tech) manifests the future we want to see

Whole system prototypes: ecosystems of interconnected projects grown by glocal communities within bioregions, focused on producing new economies & new lifestyles�Catalyzed by ecosystemic governance, impact-focused investment, community & business “hubs”

Liminal leadership (Nora Bateson): emerging “willpower” of the community that comes through a system of connections between players (similar to connectome that creates higher mental capacities of the brain)

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