Motivation for the SCO and WICCI

“Warmer and Wetter” in Wisconsin

2000s and 2010s = warmest decades

“Warmer and Wetter” in Wisconsin

2000s and 2010s = warmest decades

2010s the wettest decade by far

Billion Dollar Weather Disasters

Great Lakes States

More and more costly weather disasters. . . a new record in 2023

Rural Partnerships Institute at UW-Madison

(USDA-NIFA Funded: $9.3M over 4 years)

Supporting Wisconsin rural communities

Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research:

Wisconsin State Climatology Office

College of Agricultural & Life Sciences (CALS) :

Wisconsin Mesonet

“Wisconet”

Division of Extension

and CALS:

Rural community

research and outreach projects

As of January 2023. . . .

State Climatology Office Staff

John Young

Emeritus Director

Ed Hopkins

Asst. State Climatologist

(part-time)

Lyle Anderson

Office Manager

Steve Vavrus

Director

Full-time Assistant

State Climatologist

Graduate student(s)

Undergrad student(s)

Dea Larsen Converse

Communications Dir.

Coming soon!

2 next year

1 on board +

1 expected

Mission: Offer climate services that help Wisconsinites use weather and climate information most effectively.

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Mission: Offer climate services that help Wisconsinites use weather and climate information most effectively.

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Vision:

”Climate Services”

Mission: Offer climate services that help Wisconsinites use weather and climate information most effectively.

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Vision:

Information: providing users with reliable weather and climate information

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”Climate Services”

Mission: Offer climate services that help Wisconsinites use weather and climate information most effectively.

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Vision:

Information: providing users with reliable weather and climate information

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Interpretation: assisting users in how to understand and apply this information

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”Climate Services”

Mission: Offer climate services that help Wisconsinites use weather and climate information most effectively.

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Vision:

Information: providing users with reliable weather and climate information

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Interpretation: assisting users in how to understand and apply this information

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Investigation: conducting basic and applied research on Wisconsin’s climate

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”Climate Services”

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI)

Established in 2007

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Co-directors: Ann Kipper (DNR), Steve Vavrus (UW-Madison)

WICCI Overview

Science

Climate Adaptation

WICCI

WICCI’s mission: Generate and share information that can foster solutions to climate change in Wisconsin (and beyond).

WICCI Working Groups

Water

Fisheries

Great Lakes

Water Resources

Coastal Resilience

Land

Agriculture

Forestry

Plants and Natural Communities

Wildlife

People

Community Sustainability

Human Health

Tourism

Infrastructure

Air

Climate

Geospatial

Interviews in WICCI Assessment Report

Making Sense of Past, Present, and Future Climate Change

• Past and present conditions
• Near-term climate
• Societal impacts due to weather events

• Present and future conditions
• Societal impacts due to climate change

Extreme Rainfall in Recent Years (SCO)

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“100-year” events during 2010s

At least 20 events affecting most parts of Wisconsin

Courtesy of Dan Vimont

Extreme Rainfall in the Future (WICCI)

Extreme Rain

Extreme rainfall to increase in the future throughout Wisconsin

(nearly twice as common in most places)

What do the new resources allow the

State Climatology Office to do?

Weather Whiplash in Wisconsin

U.S. Drought Monitor

September 19, 2023

Historic Drought in Wisconsin 2023

• SCO provides expert assessment to U.S. Drought Monitor authors

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• SCO presents climate briefings to Wisconsin Drought Task Force (WI Emergency Management)

Monthly and Seasonal Climate Summaries

Email Distribution of Climate Summaries

Please sign up!-- https://explore.wisc.edu/scopreflanding

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Social Media: Twitter

SCO Conferences and Outreach

2023

• Country Visions Farm Cooperative (Feb)
• Midwestern Regional Climate Center Workshop (May)
• American Association of State Climatologists (Jun)
• Extension’s Badger Crop Connect webinar series (summer)
• Wisconsin Academy’s Agriculture & Rural Resilience Summit (Oct)
• Wisconsin Insurance Alliance (Nov)
• Extension’s Badger Crops roadshow (Nov)
• Extension’s Climate Leadership Team professional development webinar (Nov)
• Wisconsin DNR Drinking Water & Groundwater Program (Dec)

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2024-

• Wisconsin Potato & Vegetable Growers Association Conference (Feb)
• UW Organic Collaborative (OGRAIN) Conference (Feb)
• Extension’s Wisconsin Master Naturalist training (Aug)
• UW-Arboretum Luncheon Lecture Series (Jun 2025)

https://cropsandsoils.extension.wisc.edu/wisconsin-climate-outlook/

Wisconsin Agriculture-Climate Weekly Outlooks

Key Points

1. Drought conditions remain mostly unchanged this week.
2. Corn harvest made big strides this week, due to the dry weather.
3. Very little precipitation is expected during the upcoming week.

Soil Temperature 4”

7-Day Avg. Data (11/7 -11/13)

• Most stations are sitting in the low to mid 40s.
• Woodruff is the coldest station at 38°F.
• Weekly average 4” soil temps of <50°F reported statewide.

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Note: consider using this data when making fall management decisions, such as fall fertilizer applications.

http://wisconet.wisc.edu/ 🡪 More stations to come soon!

90 Day Temp & Precip Outlook

November – January: Temperatures likely to be above average. No indication on precipitation departure from average. El Nino is a major driver of these conditions.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Eric Klister

Diane Stojanovich

(Nelson Institute)

New website launched in September

Statewide Climate Trends 1895-

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Image: Apple

Slide courtesy of J. Magnuson,

Photo by Peter W. Schmitz

Lake Mendota, Madison WI

January 20, 2007

Ice-on date

Chris Kucharik and Chris Vagasky

• At least one weather station in every Wisconsin county (90 total)

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• Real-time weather and soil temperature/moisture data updated every five minutes

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• Temperature, RH, precipitation, wind, solar energy, soil conditions at 5 depths

Wisconet Weather Station Sites

20 up, 70 to go!

Wisconet in action: Documenting Drought

Peak drought

Research in the SCO: Basic and Applied

+12” upward trend!

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Real or spurious?

Example of Basic Research: Is Wisconsin becoming Snowier?

Most snowfall on

record last winter

Examples of Applied Research: Decision-Support Tools

(South Dakota Climate Office)

Examples of Applied Research: Decision-Support Tools

(South Dakota Climate Office)

Animal Comfort Index (Kansas Climate Office)

Rapp et al. (2019)

SCO Partners and Collaborators

Rural Partnerships Institute

Opportunities for SCO-WICCI Collaboration with Extension

• Extension/CALS is leading the community research and outreach projects in RPI

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• Wisconet weather data (e.g., WGNHS Groundwater-Level Monitoring Network)

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• Extension staff on-the-ground drought reporting for U.S. Drought Monitor

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• Extension’s Climate Leadership Team

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• Participation in Extension’s Badger Crop Connect webinars and roadshow series

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• Extension’s educational programs, such as Upham Woods

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• Extension’s Master Naturalist Program

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• Development of climate dashboard for maple syrup producers?

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• Wisconsin Agriculture-Climate Weekly Outlook

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Winter

Summer

Spring

Fall

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C v

Projected Precipitation Change 2041-60

Projected Future Increase in Precipitation

“Warmer and Wetter”

Fairly uniform warming trend since 1950

Wetter especially in central and southern WI

Climate Change since mid-20^th Century

C v

C v

Annual Temperature Trend 1950-2020

Annual Precipitation Trend 1950-2020

+3^oF statewide

+17% statewide