PROMO CARD BREAKDOWN: THINKING ANALYTICALLY SO YOU CAN COLLECT FOR FREE

What we will cover:

Breaking down recent promo card releases

• Understanding the intangible demand for the card
• Judging supply through population reports and availability on marketplaces
• Using sales data & ROI to our advantage
• Make informed decisions as collectors and as “sellers” to fund our collecting goals

Mischievous Pichu (S-P Promo 214)

Intangibles

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• Pokemon Featured: Pichu (B/C Tier Pokemon)
• Language Exclusive: Yes, no English version
• Artwork: Unique, B/C Tier. This is subjective of course.
• Release Story: Unique partnership with Graniph clothing brand, however, not globally recognized brand.
• First new art appearance in years for Pichu!

Fundamentals

• Availability: Very wide.
• Almost at 1000+ in PSA Population report in less than one year.
• Available in 10+ card lots on eBay 6-months post release. Price has remained flat on raw copies

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CONCLUSION

• With a 90+% PSA gem rate the math says to buy this card raw ($10) and grade ($15 PSA Special).
• If you buy four copies of this card, receive four 10s and sell at current market price ($55), you can sell three and end up with a free PSA 10 copy of this card even after fees.
• RISKS:
• Increased supply of the card coming back from grading drives the PSA 10 sale price down. (Likely)
• Lower-tier intangibles and high-availability present little risk-reward to buy and sell this card.

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Outlook: Perfect for binder collectors at $9 raw. No need to pay graded price if you want a copy - easy to do yourself. Need to consider selling sooner rather than later if you have multiple copies of this card. Not particularly memorable for the long-term.

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Special Delivery Pikachu (SWSH Promo 74)

Intangibles

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• Pokemon Featured: Pikachu (S-Tier Pokemon)
• Language Exclusive: Yes, very rare English exclusive promo
• Artwork: Unique, A Tier. This is subjective of course. But this artwork and holo pattern is very strong.
• Release Story: Launch of Canadian Pokemon Center - was a high-awareness story during covid collecting. Card had high awareness and a major initial price spike. Intangibles are very very high on this card.

Fundamentals

• Availability: Very wide.
• 7500+ in PSA Population report in two years.
• Availability is slowing down, raw copies have maintained $100+ price point.
• Gem rate is EXTRAORDINARILY LOW.

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CONCLUSION

• The PSA 10 price is out of whack on this card. Unlike most modern cards this card is a nightmare to grade - giving it some level of “condition rarity”. (Not as low as some vintage cards, but it’s still a very tough 10.)
• This is a situation where you MAY consider going after the graded copies when they still command a reasonable premium to the raw copies.
• This card has strong intangibles, strong demand and has seen price spikes in the past. In my opinion, this is a card that has a decent outlook for growth, and while not guaranteed it would not be shocking in the future to see the PSA 10s of this promo sit higher than where they sell for today. I would look for continued sideways movement in this card - showing healthy interest. One to consider for the long-term in PSA 10

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Charizard (S-P Promo 143)

Intangibles

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• Pokemon Featured: Charizard (S-Tier Pokemon)
• Language Exclusive: Yes, no English version
• Artwork: Unique, A Tier. This is subjective of course. The artwork was drawn by a contest winner - Jiro Sasumo. The contest logo for the 2nd Annual Illustration Grand Prix is visible on the card.
• Release Story: Free in Japan with pack purchase - the story of the art is unique, the acquisition method was not. Card was so popular promotion had to be ended in three days.

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Fundamentals

• Availability: Everywhere - one of the most graded Pokemon cards of all time.
• Almost at 20,000+ in PSA Population report in less than two years.
• Available in huge lots, Japanese sellers still have massive availability and price dropping, even two years later on raw copies.

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CONCLUSION

• Stunning that the price has held up this long despite 16,000 PSA 10s hitting the market. In early 2021, this card was selling for $200+ in a PSA 10. We have potentially bottomed out in the $25-35 range.
• Not much value in grading raw copies ($7+15, - fees and shipping, no value)
• Great promo that every collector should have at least in their binder - at $7 bucks not much lower to go.

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Outlook: Sideways movement with little catalyst for higher price due to historical supply of graded copies. This is a popular card with great intangibles but it has very little maneuverability to sell and trade in the near future. If you had bought and sold this in 2021 - the profit opportunity was massive! Even at $50-60 bucks the opportunities were there on this promo.