Introduction to Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptation Planning

16-17 June 2025

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Harsh Ganapathi

Learning Objectives

• Recognize climate risks to wetlands
• Apply climate risk assessment methodology (CAM)
• Develop practical adaptation actions
• Integrate adaptation into wetland management plans
• Develop the capacity of stakeholders and decision makers on understanding the climate risks and adaptation options

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Phases of CAM

The CAM method has three main phases:

1. Impact and vulnerability assessment
2. Adaptation planning
3. Implementation and feedback

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1. Impact and Vulnerability Assessment

• The first step in any planning process is to set the boundaries or scope of what is being assessed.
• The scope will describe the limits of the planning task including time horizon, geographical area, sectors or assets to be covered, and resource availability for the assessment (e.g. money and human resources).

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Asset definition – the asset (s) will be the target for the vulnerability assessment

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• Depending on whether the target is infrastructure, a natural system or a settlement, for example, the assets might include:
• Natural system
• The main natural components – e.g. species, habitats and other geographic features.
• The services provided (including ecosystems services)
• The communities served – (including key NTFPs)
• Settlement and infrastructure
• The main infrastructure components, e.g. an irrigation system might include the water source and catchment, sediment trap, pumps, canals, culverts, distribution pipes and command area
• The communities served and nature of services
• The main components of the area or settlement such as agricultural fields, school, market

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Determining the scope and target assets – understanding its purpose

• It is necessary to establish the primary purpose of the system being investigated and how each component contributes.

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• A mangrove swamp might function to protect against cyclones and provide livelihoods for local communities (e.g. from fishing and ecotourism)

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• A small irrigation system might have the objective of delivering about 0.9 litres/s/ha of water to a command area of 300 hectares.

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• Defining the purpose of the system/assets will assist in assessing the impacts of climate change, and help define adaptation options which assist the system/asset in achieving its objectives with climate change.

Wetland Site Asset Types�

The changes in the hydrological and tidal characteristics used to assess the vulnerability of habitats and species.

What are the most characteristic habitats in the wetland – refuges, breeding and feeding habitats?

Ramsar important species may not be habitat defining, but important for biodiversity conservation

Provisioning services, such as fish, NTFPs, fuelwood and timber, regulating services such as storm protection or cultural services such as eco-tourism or festivals

Species that are important for ecological processes – habitat formation, food chain, top carnivores

Process for Selecting Assets

• Consultative process during the baseline field mission – getting the opinions of which are the important habitats, species and ecosystem services from stakeholders

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• Develop a short list of assets (habitats, species and ecosystem services) for each site

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• Apply a simple scoring system considering the criteria:
• Representativeness
• Ecological significance
• Ramsar importance
• Sensitivity to change
• Non-climate threats
• Availability of data
• Choose 2 - 3 assets from each type, considering the ones that score highly on the criteria

Asset Scoring – Answer The Questions with Scale of 1 to 5

1 = Very Low, 2 = Low, 3 = Medium, 4 = High, 5 = Very High, Provide justification for your expert judgement in footnotes

Conducting The Baseline Assessment

• The baseline describes the past and existing situation, trends and drivers affecting the target system/asset
• Also involves documenting climate and hydrological change projections which will affect the system/asset and surrounding area and compiling a climate change opportunities and threat profile.
• Usually the process requires field missions to relevant locations and consultation with stakeholders, including local government officers, site managers and affected communities.
• In some cases, there may be resources to conduct climate change downscaling and/or linked hydrological modelling for target catchments.

Components of The Baseline Assessment

Determining the Climate Change Threats

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• Past climate variability and extreme events
• Describe the most significant past extreme events affecting the sector/area
• Describe the impacts of that event

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• Climate change threat and opportunities profile
• Gather all existing climate change projections relating to the area
• If feasible, conduct fresh climate change (CC) and hydrological modelling ��

Floods

Drought

Storms

Heatwaves

GLOFs

Climate Change Modeling

Emission scenarios

Global circulation model

Downscaling

Rahman, A., Pekkat, S. Identifying and ranking of CMIP6-global climate models for projected changes in temperature over Indian subcontinent. Sci Rep 14, 3076 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-52275-1

Understanding RCPs and SSPs

RCPs focus on future greenhouse gas concentrations and radiative forcing (how much energy is trapped by the atmosphere), while SSPs describe potential future societal developments that influence greenhouse gas emissions. 

Source: National Environmental Science Program

Global Climate Models

Rahman, A., Pekkat, S. Identifying and ranking of CMIP6-global climate models for projected changes in temperature over Indian subcontinent. Sci Rep 14, 3076 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-52275-1

Climate Data Source

• Historical climate data 1970-2000

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• 19 Bioclimatic variables

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• Future climate data: The monthly averages over 20 year periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100)

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• 14 GCM

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• Key climate variables – Ppt, Tmax, Tmin, wetland site specific parameters
• GCMs are global scale projections with a coarse resolution (~100 – 250 km) and suitable for broad level climate trend analysis. Ex CMIP 6 models
• RCMs are downscaled GCMs with regional focus and finer resolution (~1 – 50 km) – better representation of monsoon patterns, useful for hydrological modelling, etc. Ex CORDEX SA
• WorldClim provides downscaled GCMs – a good starting point for our analysis. Use RCMs for in-depth analysis.
• Multi model ensemble handles any uncertainty, climate variability and enables robustness
• Suggested CMIP 6 GCMs for Indian Scenario
• Precipitation - HadGEM3-GC31-MM, EC-Earth3, BCC-CSM2-MR, MPI-ESM-1-2-HR, INM-CM5-0
• Max temp - MRI-ESM2-0, MIROC6, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, Hadgem3-Gc31
• Min temp - INM-CM5-0, CMCC-ESM2, INM-CMC5-0, MPI-ESM1-2
• GIS tools like QGIS, ArcGIS, Python can be used for Climate trend analysis
• Few tools
• https://climatescreeningtools.worldbank.org/
• https://climateanalytics.org/tools

Generating Climate Projections for Wetland Landscapes

These results were generated using an ensemble mean method of three selected GCMs, including CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC-ESM, with the RCP 8.5 scenario.

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Impact Assessment

This step considers two important factors: exposure and sensitivity

• Exposure is the extent to which a system is exposed to the climate change threat.
• Sensitivity is the degree to which a system will be affected by, or responsive to the exposure.
• The potential impact is a function of the level of exposure to climate change threats, and the sensitivity of the target assets or system to that exposure.

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Direct impacts

• Alter or lose habitat
• Promote invasive exotics
• Alter timing of biological events
• Transform food webs 
• Change growing seasons
• Change species ranges
• Change patterns of seasonal breeding

Indirect impacts

• Loss of NTFPs
• Loss of ecosystem services
• Loss of livelihoods

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SENSITIVITY

IMPACTS

• Climatically-sensitive habitat
• Narrow breeding habitat
• Rare or threatened
• Small or declining range
• Limited dispersal capacity
• Dependent on interspecific relationships
• Stages in life-history dependent of specific climatic triggers

Scoring exposure

The rating system for exposure and other parameters uses a scoring from very low to very high and is applied based on expert judgement drawing from the best available scientific and factual evidence and where appropriate community knowledge and experience

Scoring sensitivity

The next step in impact assessment is to rate the sensitivity which is the degree to which the exposure to a threat will negatively affect the integrity or operation of the system/asset

Scoring impact

• The product of exposure and sensitivity provides a measure of the potential impact of the threat on the system. The method provides a support tool for determining the impact rating – the impact scoring matrix.
• The listed direct and indirect impacts provide the basis for defining the adaptation responses.

Impact scoring matrix

Exposure

Sensitivity

Impact

High

High

High

Exposure

Sensitivity

Impact

High

Low

Medium

Scenario A

Scenario B

Adaptive Capacity

• Once the impact assessment has been completed, the adaptive capacity of the managing organization or community to prepare for and respond to the impacts needs to be assessed

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• The adaptive capacity of the species and habitats should also be assessed

Vulnerability Scoring Matrix

• The next step is to determine the final vulnerability score.
• This is done by considering the impact and adaptation capacity together.
• With increasing severity of the impact, vulnerability increases.
• Adaptation capacity has the opposite effect - with increasing adaptive capacity the vulnerability of a system decreases.

Vulnerability Assessment Matrix

Summary Vulnerability Scores for Bhitarkanika Mangroves

Questions

Adaptation planning

Principles of Adaptation Planning

■ Adaptation to climate change refers to actions taken by households, communities, businesses and governments in response to the impacts of climate change.

■ It can include actions taken to prevent, avoid or reduce the risks of those impacts (ie proactive adaptation), or in response to impacts as they happen (reactive adaptation).

■ The aim of the adaptation planning process is to guide preparation of an integrated adaptation plan to build resilience in the target system or asset

■ Similar to the vulnerability assessment phase, adaptation planning uses a matrix template to guide scoring.

2. Adaptation Planning

Defining Adaptation Options

Identifying Adaptation Options

The aim – to increase resilience in vulnerable communities, development sectors and areas

1. Engineering options (e.g. dykes and drainage systems)
2. Traditional local strategies (e.g. seed storage and ponds)
3. Social responses (including resettlement and migration)
4. Land use planning (e.g. zoning and development controls)
5. Economic instruments (e.g. subsidies and tax incentives)
6. Natural systems management (e.g. rehabilitation, enhancement, integrated watershed management)
7. Sector specific adaptation practices (e.g. design standards for roads, irrigation systems and drinking water intakes)
8. Institutional options: all require associated institutional and administrative innovations

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Note - ways of using natural approaches such as bioengineering should be considered before hard engineering options are designed.

Adaptation should always contribute to ecological sustainability as well as reducing climate change vulnerability.

Identifying Adaptation Options

Adaptation Priorities = Feasibility x Effectiveness

• With limited resources it is not possible or necessary to do everything at once – choices need to be made on what is feasible and necessary now and what can be left to later planning cycles.

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• Priority setting requires that some measures should lay the foundation for future adaptation investments and facilitate future additions and modifications as climate continues to change.

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• An adaptation measure should not make future adaptation difficult or expensive.

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Factors influencing feasibility which need to be considered include

• technical complexity,
• Time required to implement
• capacity of the implementing agencies and user community
• availability of equipment and materials and
• cost.

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Guiding Questions for Assessing Feasibility

Does the affected community or lead government agency have the knowledge and skills to use the technologies involved?

• Is there sufficient commitment? In most cases, local government will have a role in adaptation management, monitoring and repair. If local communities are an essential force in building, managing and monitoring the adaptation measure,
• who within the community will take on the responsibility;
• will a special management or user group structure be needed;
• will the key actors be able to set aside livelihood activities to accommodate the new role; and
• will compensation be needed?
• Is time a critical factor? Some options such as a river bank dyke may need to be fully in place to be effective – others need to be implemented over several years. For example, bioengineering measures can take several years of plant growth and adjustment to reach the needed levels of resilience.

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Assessing Effectiveness of Adaptation Options

The next step in priority ranking is to determine the degree to which each adaptation option would be successful in avoiding or reducing the negative impacts of climate change on the target system and enhancing any benefits and opportunities which may arise.

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Adaptation Priorities = Feasibility x Effectiveness

• The final ranking from very low to very high feasibility and effectiveness is made based on the judgements of the team and/or consultations with stakeholders drawing from the detailed information gathered during the baseline and impact assessment phase.

• The assessments of feasibility and effectiveness together determine the scoring for priority of adaptation measures

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Preparing The Integrated Adaptation Plan

• An adaptation plan sets out in an integrated way the adaptation priorities identified through the consultative planning process, their phasing and implementation arrangements.

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• The plan can be prepared for a specific natural system and its main components. It can also be for an entire area such as a town, catchment or defined landscape – with all its systems and communities. The scope should have been defined as the first step in the process.

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• In the case of wetlands, the goal is to integrate the adaptation plan within site management plans

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How to Phase Adaptation Options in The Adaptation Plan

To assist in phasing adaption options within the planning stage, four strategic approaches can be taken:

1. Build now for lifetime adaptation
2. Plan for phased adaptation over project lifetime
3. Progressive modification to design
4. Build to repair

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In most cases, planning for a phased approach to adaptation over the lifetime of a project is the most effective approach. It may not be a matter of choosing between options but staging them – some will need to be implemented before others are feasible.

What Should be Included in The Adaptation Plan

• An adaptation plan should detail the specific actions required to implement each measure and
• Define responsibilities and partnerships involved.

Adaptation plan structure

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1. The target system and assets
2. Adaptation measures
3. Supporting adaptation measures
4. Climate change opportunities and linked adaptation measures
5. Institutional arrangements and responsibilities
6. Adaptation phasing
7. Adaptation impact assessment
8. Other development influences
9. Reforms required
10. Framework for monitoring, maintenance and repair

Mainstreaming Plan

• The adaptation plan should include steps for mainstreaming, i.e. upscaling across broader geographic regions or sectors

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• This includes the adjustments that are required within the target sector to implement or replicate the adaptation measures and plan - e.g. revised guidelines, design standards and policies

Adaptation Implementation and Feedback

Hydrological restoration implemented in mangrove wetlands in Pichavaram, Tamil Nadu, India

Ensuring linkage between the planning, design and construction stages of adaptation

• Ensure that the key knowledge gained from the vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning process is incorporated into the design of adaptation measures and delivered on the ground

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• There should be technical personnel involved who have been part of the vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning for the project. They should be consulted regularly during the design and implementation stages.

Monitoring and Maintenance

• Effective monitoring programs are an essential part of adaptation which requires regular adjustment to changing circumstances.

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• Monitoring identifies components of infrastructure or natural systems that require maintenance and repair to maintain their resilience

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• As far as possible the M&M requirements for the adaptation measures should be well rooted in existing maintenance programs and budgets at local and national level.

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• Ensuring an effective M&M for adaptation will require capacity building in affected local communities and in responsible infrastructure agencies. Local communities may also need to be brought into the M&M process

Including monitoring and maintenance in adaptation plans

• Adaptation plans and their implementation should include provision for:
• Development of M&M processes and plans for each adaptation measure,
• Capacity building of community members on M&M jointly with local NGOs,
• Integration of specific M&M programs into adaptation plans

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• The arrangements for M&M need to be spelt out in the adaptation plan including guidance on
• which parts of the target system have to be maintained,
• what exactly is to be done,
• how often M&M activities need to be conducted
• who is responsible.
• how the M&M activities are financed.

Developing a monitoring programme

• A monitoring programme should include suggested frequency in monitoring, who should be responsible for monitoring and what indicators will be used indicators

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• Indicators might focus on institutional and policy responses and technical performance of the adaptation measure

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• Indicators should assess the effectiveness in dealing with climate change impact

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• Practical difficulties in conducting a monitoring program stem from a lack of resources and capacities, a lack of baseline data and historical trends, uncertainty in projected climate change impacts, and insufficient sharing of information across stakeholder groups. As a result, monitoring (or auditing) of adaptation is one of the weakest areas of adaptation practice.

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• The goal is to integrate adaptation monitoring with existing frameworks for development planning and implementation at sector and local level.

Adaptation phasing, adjustment and retrofitting

• Some adaptation measures identified in adaptation plans are scheduled for implementation at later phases of the infrastructure systems life depending on climate change projections.

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• The need for those later measures should be kept under review based on regular updating of climate change and hydrological information – and regular on-site inspections of asset and surrounding conditions.

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• The results from an effective monitoring program should lead to progressive improvements and help shape future adaptation measures.

• Replication and upscaling of good adaptation measures means making the necessary reforms to policies, institutional arrangements and procedures at higher levels, which enable those practices to be applied systematically within the sector and in other areas.

• Progressively, the line agencies need to take on the responsibility for adaptation measures. For that each sector will need to embrace the preparation and regular review of SAPAs – Sector Adaptation Plans of Action – in keeping with the cycles of their development planning and budgeting.

Adding Rigor to Assessments

In cases of large scale projects or programs of national or provincial strategic importance, affecting large populations or areas, an assessment team can add rigor by:

1. taking a quantitative approach to the scoring rather than applying the very low to very high rankings, and
2. by adding a step to assess the significance of the impacts.

“Significance” is a term widely used and understood among environmental impact assessment practitioners.

Likelihood

• Likelihood is the chance or probability of something happening.

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• If an impact is very significant but there is little probability of it happening – for example catastrophic failure in a hydropower dam – a team of planners need to make a judgement on what is an acceptable level of risk for each potential impact.

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• The assessment of likelihood provides the team with the initial information needed in making that judgement.

Seriousness

• Even if there is very little chance of an event happening – the consequences could be so serious in terms of potential loss of life and property that a team can override the matrix results and give adaption measures to avoid the impact the highest priority in the final adaptation plan for an asset or area.
• Dam failure, for example, can have such serious impacts that, even if unlikely to happen, all the necessary safeguards and adaptation measures should be implemented.
• Criteria used for assessing seriousness of impacts include: loss of life; loss or destruction of property; property damage; loss of productivity and income; and impediments to socio-economic functions.
• Environmental criteria may also be important for some areas, for instance a forest area with endangered species or NTFPs essential for local livelihoods may be seriously degraded.

Scoring significance

Significance of impact = likelihood x seriousness

Example of significance assessment summary

The following is an example of a summary for the low and high end of significance for rural infrastructure:

Low significance = no loss of life; no injuries; no destruction of property; some damage to property up to $500; minimal loss of productivity and income up to a total of $1000 across the community; minimal impediment to social/economic function of community (up to 1 day).

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Very high significance = severe loss of life; many severe injuries; destruction and damage to property above $100,000; loss of productivity and income above $250,000 across the community; impediment to social/economic function of community longer than 7 days.

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Additional Documents

Baseline assessment field template:

• https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-FpfkM5aKM30Xci2RYm5srGfYzkj-BBs/view?usp=sharing

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Example 1 Adaptation planning matrix

• https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Vw4OUbVyUUwMSlSJRmjo-33DG9IR6ysy/view?usp=sharing

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Example 1 vulnerability assessment matrix

• https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YjTM5wRjqw9wA2n_cKbVCoQLajY1ZIzY/view?usp=sharing

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Mondulkiri CAM matrix

• https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AGOXQC5z7idHJ29tlcHa7ho6uOWJJfIl/view?usp=sharing

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Vulnerability assessment field template

• https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GJoBolPh90nb5yI2vxwpu9d1lI_l0Snw/view?usp=sharing

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This presentation is linked to the ICEM CAM vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning user guide available from: www.icem.com.au

Thank You

harsh.ganapathi@icem.com.au

Correspondence:

info@icem.com.au

(t) +84 24 3823 9127 (f) +84 24 3719 0367 26/86, To Ngoc Van Street,

Tay Ho District, Hanoi, Vietnam www.icem.com.au �