WORKIVA INC.
NYSE: WK | Equity Pitch | February 2026
BUY — Blended Price Target: $90.83
+55% upside from $58.61 (Feb 25, 2026 close)
CURRENT
$58.61
DCF (FLOOR)
$49.93
BLENDED PT
$90.83
WACC
10.0%
TERMINAL g
2.0%
The Setup
Workiva is a cloud SaaS platform that owns the financial reporting workflow for 6,600+ enterprises — including 85% of the Fortune 1000. FY2025 revenue reached $885M (+20% YoY), with 97% gross retention and a rapidly expanding margin profile. The stock is down ~49% from its Jan 2025 high of $115, creating a valuation entry point.
Why It's Mispriced
Our DCF (GAAP EBIT, 10% WACC, 2% terminal g) implies $49.93 — a conservative floor that does not add back SBC. Market-based methods (EV/Revenue 6x NTM at $112.64, EV/EBITDA 25x FY27E at $105.39, Street consensus at $95.38) capture the premium for durable growth and margin inflection. Blended equally: $90.83. Terminal value is ~70% of EV, so the discount rate is the single biggest swing factor.
SENSITIVITY: ±100 bps WACC → $43–$59 | ±200 bps terminal margin → $43–$57 | Bear $49.93 | Base $90.83 | Bull $131.06
Prepared by Dylan | Confidential | For Academic Purposes Only
Company Overview
WORKIVA INC. (WK) | Cloud SaaS | Founded 2008 | Ames, IA
What It Is
Cloud-native SaaS platform that unifies financial reporting, sustainability disclosure, and GRC workflows into a controlled, audit-ready environment.
Competitive Edge:
"Connected reporting" — data linking, audit trail, and controls across enterprise systems
Revenue Model:
Predominantly subscription & support (high visibility, recurring). Professional services as a smaller component.
FY2025 Snapshot
Revenue
$885M
+20% YoY
Customers
6,600+
85% of F1000
Non-GAAP Op. Margin
9.9%
+560 bps YoY
FCF Margin
15.6%
$138M FCF
Gross Retention
97%
113% NRR
FY26 Revenue Guide
$1.04B
GAAP profitability
Source: Workiva FY2025 10-K, FY2026 Guidance (Feb 2026 Earnings Call)
Investment Thesis
The specific drivers that move the valuation — and break the model if they fail
01
Operating Leverage Is the Value Engine
Our DCF assumes GAAP EBIT margin expansion from -4.8% (FY24) to 17.0% by terminal year. This is the core thesis: Workiva's cost structure should scale as subscription revenue compounds. If margin expansion stalls at 8–10%, terminal FCF compresses and the DCF drops below $35.
EBIT Margin Arc
-4.8% → 17.0%
02
Durable Double-Digit Revenue Growth
Revenue compounds at ~12% CAGR from $885M to $1.8B over the explicit forecast period. Regulatory tailwinds (SEC climate, EU CSRD) and net revenue retention of 113% underpin this trajectory. Growth deceleration below 8% would meaningfully reduce the terminal value driving ~70% of EV.
Revenue Growth
~12% CAGR
03
Discount Rate Dominates Outcomes
At 10% WACC, the DCF implies $49.93. A ±100 bps move swings implied value from $43 to $59 — a wider band than any single operating assumption. Terminal value represents ~70% of enterprise value, making WACC the single largest source of valuation uncertainty.
±100 bps WACC Range
$43 – $59
Note: SBC (~$120M/yr, ~13% of revenue) is included in GAAP EBIT — not added back. This keeps the DCF conservative. $250M buyback partially offsets dilution.
Valuation & Risks
Multi-Method Valuation
Method | Weight | Price |
DCF (GAAP EBIT) | 25% | $49.93 |
EV/Revenue 6.0x NTM | 25% | $112.64 |
EV/Adj. EBITDA 25x FY27E | 25% | $105.39 |
Analyst Consensus | 25% | $95.38 |
BLENDED TARGET | | $90.83 |
Scenario Analysis
BEAR
$49.93
-14.8%
BASE
$90.83
+54.9%
BULL
$131.06
+123.6%
Key Risks
Growth Compression
Sustainability reg delays or macro tightening could slow buying cycles below 10% growth
Competitive Pressure
ERP vendors (SAP, Oracle) and AI-native entrants could erode pricing power and margins
SBC Dilution
~$120M/yr (~13% of revenue); $250M buyback only partially offsets per-share dilution
Convertible Overhang
$773M convertible notes create refinancing risk and potential equity dilution at conversion
Execution Risk on Margins
Core thesis depends on -4.8% → 17% EBIT margin ramp — the biggest model dependency
MODEL: DCF_Complete.xlsx (DCF Template + Valuation + Model Summary + Share Prices) | Workiva_Valuation_Report.docx
Model Access & Appendix
Supporting files, key assumptions, and data sources for replication
Deliverables
4-tab workbook: DCF Template, Valuation, Model Summary, Share Prices (539 trading days, Jan 2024–Feb 2026)
Standalone 9-year DCF with FY2024–FY2032 projections and terminal value calculation
8-section equity research report with full narrative writeup and methodology
Key Assumptions
WACC | 10.0% |
Terminal Growth (g) | 2.0% |
Tax Rate | 5.0% |
D&A (% of Revenue) | 1.5% |
CapEx (% of Revenue) | 0.2% |
Net Cash | $119M |
Shares Outstanding | 56.3M |
Treatment | GAAP EBIT (SBC incl.) |
Data Sources
Workiva FY2025 10-K • FY2026 Earnings Call & Guidance • SEC Filings (Convertible Notes) • Yahoo Finance (Share Price History, Jan 2024–Feb 2026) • Bloomberg / FactSet (Consensus) • Company IR
This analysis is for academic purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All data sourced from public filings.