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INVESTIGATING THE SEASONAL IMPACTS OF WILDFIRES ON FINE PARTICLE POLLUTION IN CHICAGO

Thesis Proposal Presentation

4/5/2023

By Nora Hartnett

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OVERVIEW

How did I become interested in wildfire and PM_2.5
What is PM_2.5 and why is it most harmful air pollutant?
Why is it necessary to study wildfire and PM_2.5 in Chicago?
What do I propose to study?
What have I found out so far?

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ABOUT ME

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WHY DID I CHOOSE THIS TOPIC?

https://www.governing.com/now/chicago-and-its-future-a-glass-half-full

"Wildfire Smoke Is Erasing Progress on Clean Air"

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WHY ARE WILDFIRES A CONCERN?

Wildfires are increasing as a result of climate change. I want to investigate how they are impacting Chicago.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06032023/wildfire-forest-regeneration/

Wildfire Statistics (2023), Congressional Research Service, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/IF10244.pdf

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COMPONENTS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE

Gaseous pollutants

E.g., carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides

Hazardous air pollutants

E.g., acetaldehyde, acrolein, formaldehyde, benzene

Water vapor
Particle pollution

0.4–0.7 micrometers
Persist in the air for days to months

https://www.iqair.com/us/newsroom/how-to-protect-yourself-from-wildfire-smoke

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JFpD0v9UvffLXh6VErv3erV7Gs9cuwac/view See Emily’s slides about the relative sizes of particles. Wildfire smoke particles can be smaller than 1 micrometer (0.4–0.7 micrometers)

. I remember Emily said the particles can be organic. They stay in the air for days to months

https://www.airnow.gov/sites/default/files/2021-05/wildfire-smoke-guide-revised-2019-chapters-1-3.pdf

All smoke contains carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and particulate matter (PM or soot). Smoke can contain many different chemicals, including aldehydes, acid gases, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), benzene, toluene, styrene, metals and dioxins. https://www.epa.gov/wildfire-smoke-course/why-wildfire-smoke-health-concern#complex

Corona

Persist for days to months, and can travel thousands of miles

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WHAT IS PM_2.5 AND WHY IS IT HARMFUL?

https://www.scmp.com/sites/default/files/2014/05/30/b64599363210863345f49d18130c4088.jpg

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SOURCES OF PM_2.5

Primary Sources

Emitted directly into the atmosphere from the source
Vehicle exhaust, industrial processes, dust storms and wildfires

Secondary Sources

Form in the atmosphere as a result of chemical reactions with precursors such as ammonia, SO₂, NO_x, etc.

Transported into the city from upwind areas

https://www.freepik.com/premium-vector/air-pollution-source-pm-2-5-dust-dirty-environment-polluted-air-sources-infographic-illustration_7394261.htm

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COMPOSITION OF PM_2.5

https://www3.epa.gov/pmdesignations/2012standards/docs/pm2.5_chemical_composition.pdf

IMW = Industrial Midwest

EGU = Electricity-generating unit; RWC = Residential wood combustion

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NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS FOR PM_2.5

Short-term (24-hr mean): 35 𝛍g/m³

Long-term (annual mean): 12 𝛍g/m³

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PM_2.5 IN CHICAGO

American Lung Association considers Chicago one of the most polluted cities in the US
5 million people in Cook county

Over 1 million children
2 million people of color
Almost 1 million currently suffer from cardiovascular or respiratory illness

Chicago’s life expectancy has been going down in recent years

Leading causes of death include heart disease, lung cancer and respiratory disease

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PM_2.5 IN CHICAGO 2019–2022

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CURRENT LITERATURE: MILANDO ET AL. (2016)

Annual median PM_2.5 in Chicago decreased by 3% per year from 2001–2014.

mainly due to control of large point sources, such as coal-fired facilities.

Percentage of PM_2.5 from vehicles, biomass sources, and metal sources increased.

Greater importance of biomass burning to PM_2.5

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CURRENT LITERATURE: �LIU ET AL. (2017)

Total emissions of gases and particles from wildfires across the US were underestimated.
The compositions of pollutants from the wildfires were more complex than previously thought.

A greater number of gases and a greater variety of particles were found in the wildfires�

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HYPOTHESES

PM_2.5 highs in Chicago are mainly caused by smoke resulting from fires outside of the Chicagoland area.
Wintertime PM_2.5 is of equal importance as summertime, and smoke has impacts year-round.

Image from https://abc7chicago.com/hazy-skies-chicago-haze-weather-smoke-in-air/10902235/

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RESEARCH PLAN

I will compile a dataset with daily smoke category data and PM_2.5 concentrations.

Will use linear regression to determine a statistical relationship.
Will analyze the relationship by season.

Will use wind trajectories and imagery to confirm wildfire smoke is related to Chicago's particulate pollution on certain days

Variable	Data Source	Period
Data	Source	Time period collected
PM_2.5 in Chicago	EPA and PurpleAir	2019-2022
Smoke and fire data	NOAA	2019-2022
Satellite imagery	NASA	2019-2022
Wind trajectories and movement	NOAA	2019-2022

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PRELIMINARY RESEARCH RESULTS

During my preliminary research, I have collected data regarding smoke and fire patterns, PM_2.5concentrations in Chicago, and wind trajectories.

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INCREASE IN ANNUAL SMOKE DAYS ACROSS THE US 2019–2022

Data gathered from NOAA’s HMS analysis

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/land/hms.html#stats-smoke

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AIR QUALITY INDEX VALUES FOR PM_2.5

0–12 µg/m³	12–35 µg/m³	35–55 µg/m³	55–150 µg/m³	150–250 µg/m³	>250 µg/m³
Good 0-50	Moderate 51-100	Unhealthy for sensitive groups 101-150	Unhealthy 151-200	Very Unhealthy 201-300	Hazardous 300+

Air quality is satisfactory, and air pollution poses little or no risk with 24 hours of exposure.	Air quality is acceptable. However, there may be a risk for some people with 24 hours of exposure, particularly those who are unusually sensitive to air pollution.	Members of sensitive groups may experience health effects with 24 hours of exposure. The general public is less likely to be affected.	Some members of the general public may experience health effects with 24 hours of exposure; members of sensitive groups may experience more serious health effects.	Health alert: The risk of health effects is increased for everyone with 24 hours of exposure.	Health warning of emergency conditions: everyone is more likely to be affected with 24 hours of exposure.

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WINTER AND SUMMER SEEM TO BE OF EQUIVALENT CONCERN

Monthly Average AQI Overlayed on the Percentage of each AQI Value for that month

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ELEVATED PM_2.5 AQI VALUE AROUND APR 2

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DEVELOPMENT OF SMOKE PLUMES IN THE MIDWEST MAR 31–APR 3

3/31/2021 4/1/2021 4/2/2021 4/3/2021

(High PM_2.5 observed)

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SMOKE ACROSS CHICAGO REGION AROUND APR 2

Smoke as observed by satellites, Terra and Aqua / MODIS

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AIR MOVING FROM CANADA TO CHICAGO

72-hr back trajectory, ending on 4/2/21

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SATELLITE IMAGE ON APR 2 WITH SMOKE AND FIRE SPOTS

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ELEVATED LEVELS OF PM_2.5 DURING JULY AND AUGUST

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LARGE AMOUNT OF SMOKE WAS SPREAD OVER THE CHICAGO REGION DURING JULY AND AUGUST 2021

Smoke as observed by satellites, Terra and Aqua / MODIS

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HIGH PM_2.5 OBSERVED IN CHICAGO, WHILE FIRE AND SMOKE WAS OBSERVED IN CANADA

July 23, 2021

96-hr back-trajectories showing air came from Canada

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CONCLUSION

The case studies have qualitatively shown a connection between Chicago’s elevated PM_2.5 and wildfires across North America.

I will continue to provide case studies displaying this relationship.

Next steps include gathering quantitative data. I will conduct statistical analyses on the relationship between daily PM_2.5 level, smoke days and season.

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TIMELINE OF MY RESEARCH

Fall 2022	Spring 2023	Summer 2023	Fall 2023	Spring 2023
Thesis Summary Thesis Committee formed	Thesis Proposal	Data Collection Data Analysis Literature Review	Results finalized Thesis Preparation	Thesis finalized Thesis Defense

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What are your thoughts?

What should be my next steps?
Any improvements that could be made?
Issues?

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Continued Research

Using R for statistics and formal graphing
Incorporating an autoregression component in my statistical analyses
Using raw PM data instead of AQI values
Compiling all data
Create and analyze several case studies
Consistency on satellite imagery
Ensure consistency on timing of wind trajectories
Acknowledge the potential impacts of Covid on my data