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Effects of Spinetoram on Rionegro (Antioquia, Colombia) avocado production

Mario Velasquez

Industrial Engineer

Posgraduate Project social assessment

MSc Applied Economics

m.velasquez.Zabaleta@gmail.com

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Economic Study Objectives

To determine the effect of the use of spinetoram on avocado primary production in Rionegro (Antioquia-Colombia) by measuring changes in profitability in local production.

Avocado Local Production

Avocado trading

    • Local Market
    • International Market

Avocado Primary Production Profitability

“Economic losses to pests may be from reduced yields or degradation of product quality…” The Economic Impact of the IR-4 Project and Programs

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Study Steps

Methodological Approach

Data analysis

Calculations

Findings

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Methodological Approach

P

Q

D Local Market

S avocado Rionegro

Q0

Plocal

 

Q1

D International Market

Pexport

ΔP

ΔQ

 

 

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Methodological Approach

  1. Avocados with required conditions are sold in international markets.
  2. ΔP additional pesos received per kilogram of avocado with respect to local price.
  3. ΔQ additional amount of avocado that can be traded on the international market due to mitigation of the effects of thrips.

P

Q

D Local Market

S avocado Rionegro

Q0

Plocal

 

Q1

D International Market

Pexport

ΔP

ΔQ

 

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Determine the price differential between local and international price

Estimate production volume using spinetoram

determine the production differential that can be marketed at export prices.

Estimate additional benefit in monetary terms

Methodological Approach

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Data Analysis

Price in wholesale markets�Consumer price index

Exports

Planted and harvested area, production, yield

Interview

    • Production process
    • Commercialization dynamics
    • Trips effects

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Behavior of the primary production of avocado in Colombia

EVA MADR

FAOSTAT

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Behavior of the primary production of avocado in Colombia

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Behavior of the primary production of avocado in Rionegro

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Behavior of the primary production of avocado in Rionegro

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Behavior of the primary production of avocado in Rionegro

Year

Cost / ha

Kg Avocado / Tree

Kg / ha

Ton / Ha

1

20,000,000

0

-

0

2

15,000,000

3

600

0.6

3

15,000,000

18

3,600

3.6

4

8,000,000

30

6,000

6

5

8,000,000

50

10,000

10

6

8,000,000

60

12,000

12

7

24,000,000

60

12,000

12

8

24,000,000

60

12,000

12

9

24,000,000

60

12,000

12

10

24,000,000

80

16,000

16

Planting density

200

Kilos / Ton

1000

Oportunity Interest Rate

11%

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Calculations

  1. Financial assessment for 1 hectare

Planting density

200

Kilos / Ton

1000

Oportunity Interest Rate

11%

NPV

$20,681,268.48

IRr

23%

PV Costs

-$95,263,470.12

EAC

-$16,175,873.18

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Calculations

  1. Estimated volume of additional marketed production at export prices

Production with Exalt

90%

Avocado shrinkage due Thrips

7%

Standard shrinkage

3%

Production Using exalt

Production Rionegro

90%

Avocado shrinkage due Thrips (Qtrips)

Production Using exalt

7%

Standard shrinkage (Qstandard)

Production Using exalt

3%

ΔQ traded at export prices

Avocado shrinkage due Thrips (Qtrips)

Standard shrinkage (Qstandard)

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Calculations

  1. Estimate price differential
  1. Local prices deflated with the DANE consumer price index
  2. Average annual price calculation
  3. Price of export markets corresponds to information provided by the interviewee.

ΔP

Price export markets (PExports)

Local Price Rionegro(Plocal)

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Calculations

  1. Additional income received

Production (Ton)

(90%)

(7%)

(3%)

Gradient (Thrips Shrinkage - Estándar Shrinkage) (Ton)

Average annual price in wholesale markets (COP $ / Kg)

Avocado Exportation price / Kg (COP $)

Gradient Price (Export Price - Local Price) (COP $)

Additional income received (COP $)

Production using Exalt (Ton)

Avocado shrinkage due Thrips (Ton)

Standar shrinkage (Ton)

1,487

1,337.94

93.66

40.14

53.52

2,846.32

6,000

3,153.68

$ 168,777,223

Additional Income

(53.52 Ton x 1000 Kg / Ton) x (COP $3.153 / Kg)

Additional Income

COP $ 168.777.223

Equivalent to 3.9% of production value

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Findings

Growers interested in exporting use exalt for effective control of thrips. According to interviewee, 90% of the production is covered by Exalt.

Primary production of avocado in Rionegro receives additional COP $168 MM for controlling thrips and marketing that volume in the export market

This value per hectare is equivalent to COP $1.2 M per year. Almost a minimum monthly wage. The additional volume marketed at export prices generates the equivalent of one monthly salary.

Primary avocado production in Rionegro generates about 110 direct jobs.