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IPPR (Institute of Public Policy Research) is an independent charity working towards a fairer, greener and more prosperous society.�
Persuasion UK is a new research initiative set up to study what is shaping public opinion on the issues that define British politics.�
IPPR and Persuasion are separate organisations but have a strategic partnership, meaning they work together on projects of shared interest.�
This project was supported by Potential Energy, a non-profit marketing firm on climate change and energy.

Who we are

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The Labour government’s manifesto contains a commitment to accelerate the phase out of petrol and diesel cars in favour of Electric Vehicles (EVs) - from the current government’s target of 2035 to 2030. �
However, several potential challenges to this policy agenda exist:�

Public support for the phase out of petrol/diesel cars in favour of electric vehicles has dipped slightly in recent years, among an electorate feeling squeezed by the recent cost of living crisis.
Opponents of Net Zero have weaponised the transition to EVs and heat pumps in the US and Germany. For instance, in his successful Presidential campaign, Donald Trump recently ran millions of dollars worth of anti-EV advertising in Michigan.

Context

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Page 5

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What are the factors that shape attitudes towards Electric Vehicles (EVs) and the 2030 phase out policy?
What variables most influence consumer choices in the car market?
What messages, messengers and policies pull people towards EVs and which push them away?

Furthermore, what does the above mean for the policy and communications around this subject in the coming years?

Research objectives

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X2 focus groups were conducted in October 2024 among Conservative 2019 to Labour 2024 swing voters, since these are arguably the most contested or important group in the electorate. All participants were drivers. �
In-depth polling of baseline attitudes to Electric Vehicles (EVs). n=4,000 UK adults in November 2024, conducted via FocalData. Sample was representative on age, gender, region, education and past vote.

We used this same survey to do basic ‘pro vs anti’ narrative testing via paired statements. �

Consumer conjoint. Respondents were presented with two cars, an EV and petrol car, with attributes randomised across different categories (costs; range; re-fill cost; production location; annual insurance cost; Govt support available). They are asked which they’d prefer to buy. In the analysis phase we see which variables ‘reveal’ themselves to be important in driving consumers choosing EVs. 6,442 UK adults in November 2024, conducted via YouGov. �

Approach - part 1

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Approach - part 2

Messenger conjoint. Respondents see a neutral BBC article (fictional) on the government’s 2030 EV target. They are informed of three people in favour of the policy and three against, drawn randomly from a list. They are asked their view on the policy. In the analysis phase we see which messenger endorsement was most connected to higher or lower support and opposition to the policy. 6,442 UK adults in November 2024, conducted via YouGov. �
Rebuttal paired statement testing. Survey respondents first saw an attack on EVs and then one randomised rebuttal. They are asked which they find most convincing. In the analysis phase we see which rebuttal, if any, best neutralised the attack. 6,442 UK adults in November 2024, conducted via YouGov. �
Randomised Control Trial (RCT) messaging experiment. Respondents are split up into demographically identical sub-groups; treatment groups see a pro-EV/2030 message, a control group sees none. All groups take the same outcome survey on their attitudes to EV. In the analysis phase we see which message, if any, most increased positivity towards EVs. 6,000 UK adults in December 2024, conducted via YouGov.

Taken together, this work surveyed over 10,000 UK voters.

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The socialisation of Electric Vehicles in all parts of British society is high and growing. �

45% of voters and 49% of drivers now either drive an EV or have a friend or family member who does. This is 40% among non-graduates and 44% among those on average incomes.�

UK voters are instinctively positive towards EVs, driven by the view that they are better for the environment. �

This baseline positivity extends to crucial 'Conservative to Labour' switchers, who consistently show relatively high levels of baseline support for the shift to EVs throughout the polling.
The only group of voters who consistently hold anti EV views tend to be a small pocket of Con-to-Reform switchers.
A majority (58 per cent) of consumers in the market for a new car are willing to consider buying an EV, in principle.

However, voter attitudes in this area are soft, and highly vulnerable to consumer-focused opposition arguments. �

Throughout the research, respondents appeared susceptible to arguments that while EVs are 'a nice idea in theory', they are not necessarily practical for people like them - especially when it comes to cost and charging/range of EVs.
Evidence from our consumer experiment suggests cost and range are highly predictive of consumer choices in the market.
It is this dynamic which explains the delicate nature of support for the 2030 petrol/diesel phase out target. The 'persuadable middle' here wants to do the right thing for future generations, but needs to be persuaded that EVs are right for them.�

This is not a culture war. �

Public concerns are deeply practical and good faith, not ideological or cultural. While there is some class divide, EVs as an issue is not (yet) polarised on class or values lines in the way immigration or Brexit is, for instance.
Working-class and lower-income voters are more likely to be persuadable in either direction, but they are not hostile and hold the same positive starting point as middle-class voters. While there is a clear risk of backlash, there is still time to prevent it.�

Overarching messages that pull people towards EVs and the 2030 policy are: emphasising the increasing uptake of EVs; the need to protect against the threat of climate change, and energy independence (the last two are consistent with wider Net Zero comms research).�

Our advice is that comms on this area should seek to assuage consumer concerns via emphasising the increasing uptake of EVs and government action on charging/cost, while also remembering to convey ‘the big why’ of why we are making this shift as a country. �

Effective messengers for the EV cause are consumer experts. For the anti-EV side, Nigel Farage appears to be an active detriment rather than a help - co-opting pro environmental voices is a more effective strategy for opponents of the EV transition.

Summary of findings

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Recommendations for government and EV advocates

Most voters want to do their bit in the Net Zero transition and want to be positive about the move to EVs. However, they have some practical concerns about cost and range.�
Government needs to make the consumer switch to EVs as frictionless as possible. Specifically, extra measures should be focused on affordability and charging/range. Specifically:

Government needs to signal that EVs are for everyone and reduce the VAT rate on public chargers from 20 to 5 per cent, to equalise it with home charging. Crucially they will need to use competition law to ensure that the private sector passes this saving onto consumers.
The government could use the National Wealth Fund to deliver a greater proportion finance via of guarantees, rather than grants, for charging infrastructure.
Use the full range of policy levers available to bring down the average size of EVs. This would bring smaller more affordable cars onto the market as well as bringing other benefits.
Demand-side support should focus on social leasing for high-mileage drivers on low incomes.
Government need to ensure the right chargers are in the right places, with increased coverage outside London. Levers to address this include ensuring existing schemes like the Local Electric Vehicle Infrastructure plug gaps the in private sector-led rollout.
Regulation needs to also ensure more interoperability – apps should work with all chargers.
Mandated standards for chargepoint accessibility are needed to ensure the public charging network is accessible to drivers with disabilities.

Government and communicators also needs to get the comms on this right. Voters need to hear WHY this transition is being undertaken, or else it will be defined by its opponents. This means clear messaging around Britain's effort to become energy independent and doing our bit in the fight against climate change. It is also essential that there is clear messaging about how the government is addressing the practical concerns of the public, leaning into the rising socialisation of EVs. The trusted voices of consumer experts will be crucial here.

�

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Finding #1: the socialisation of EVs in all parts of British society is high and growing. �

49 per cent of all drivers - and 45 per cent of the whole population - report either driving an EV or having a close friend or family member who does.�
While there are education and income divides on this, we still see 40 per cent of non-graduates knowing someone with an EV or having one themselves. �
The geographic divide on EV ownership tends to be ‘urban vs the rest’ rather than urban vs rural per se.

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Finding #2: the average voter has an instinctive positivity towards EVs, with most of those in the market for a new car at least willing to consider buying one. �

This starting point is particularly high among the government’s electoral coalition, including crucial Conservative to Labour switchers.�
The only group of voters who have net negative views of EVs are 2024 Reform voters, especially Con-to-Reform switchers.�
There is an income and education divide here, but it is more that lower income or non-grad voters are more likely to have no particularly strong view either way rather than be actively hostile.

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Finding #3: voters wear both ‘civic’ and ‘consumer’ hats when thinking about this subject. Overall positivity to EVs is driven by a belief they are good for the environment. However, lingering concerns over practicality and cost mean consumer opinion on them is quite soft.

More voters think EVs are not affordable to people like them than the opposite, with results highly stratified by income.�
There are also worries over EVs practicality, with older voters in particular harbouring concerns. Anxiety over charging dominates here.�
However, this does not necessarily mean people see Electric Vehicles as ‘elite’ or ‘elitist’ - more just slightly up market or aspirational. The EV brand is more Waitrose than Harrods.

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Finding #4: this ambivalence explains support for the 2030 phase out policy being more divided than overall favourability towards EVs. �

The policy overall enjoys net support but it is quite fragile and is under water with lower income voters and those outside urban areas.�
That said, there is just a big chunk who have no opinion - or else no strong opinion - either way. In that sense things are all to play for. �
As a result, question wording has a notable effect on opinion here. When policy caveats are included to make the policy seem less stringent, support increases.

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Finding #5: this is not a culture war. Among voters at large at least, attitudes to EVs and the 2030 target are most clearly predicted by views on practicality, not respondents views on liberal vs conservative value divides (as is the case with Brexit and immigration, for instance).

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Attitudes positively correlated with support for EVs (in general and 2030 target) - tend to be practical concerns

Issues relatively weakly correlated to views of EVs (social conservatism, income) or education

Attitudes negatively correlated with support for EVs - tends to be partisan identity and age

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We see something similar in our consumer conjoint, where we asked people to choose between an EV or petrol car in different cost and consumer scenarios.

Willingness to opt for an EV increases most when cost is lowest, but range also matters.

Taken with earlier findings, it is likely that anxiety over charging and cost are feeding into one another: EVs have to be especially cheap to overcome anxieties about charging.

�

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What survey respondents saw…

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Cost is the most influential, followed by range/charging anxiety��(note on how to read this graph: the bigger the range between ‘top’ and ‘bottom’ value in a category, the more predictive it is of consumer choice)

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Most effective theoretical Govt policy tested

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Finding #6: when seen, messages focused on ‘social norming’, ‘climate’ and ‘energy independence’ remain the best over-arching messages in support of the shift to EVs. ��However, when anti messaging ��This again how up-for-grabs opinion on this subject is.

However, pro messaging still wins out among 2024 Labour voters, including key switchers to Labour in 2024. �
The anti messages that do best tend to start with ‘EVs are a nice idea in theory, but…’ - this starts from where voters are, rather than the more explicitly hostile or ‘culture war’ type messages which tend to be more polarising.

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How we built our message testing experiment

In this experiment, we tested 6 pro EV narratives and compared it to the effects of one 1 random anti narrative. �
To first establish which narratives to take into advanced testing, we first did some some basic paired statement testing was used to identify the most potent anti and pro messages (see Annex B for these). �
From this, we wrote 7 messages related to EVs and the 2030 target:�

Group 1: anti message. Respondents saw a random anti message which focused on the unaffordability or impracticality of EVs, or EVs only being for elites. This built on what we learnt in the paired statement testing earlier in the research.�
Group 2: Climate. We need the transition to EVs for Britain to do its bit in the fight against climate change which threatens future generations�
Group 3: Energy independence. We need the transition to EVs to help Britain be energy independent. �
Group 4: Consumer benefit. EVs are getting cheaper all the time and are a great deal for consumers.�
Group 5: Social norming. Nearly 50% of us now own an EV or know someone who does; ownership is going up all the time!�
Group 6: Pollution. EVs are great for cleaning up the air which benefits everyone. �
Group 7: Jobs/China. The EV revolution will create a new generation of high paid secure jobs in parts of the country that badly need them. Why should those jobs go to China when they could be here in Britain?�

The text for each of these messages is in Annex C. �
We then used Randomised Control Trial (RCT) methodology to test the messages. A large group of voters (c. 8,900) was split into 7 message groups and a control group. Each group saw just one of the above messages. A control group saw nothing. After exposure to the message, each group took the same survey on their attitudes to EVs and the 2030 target - the questions were the same ones from earlier in this research. �
In the analysis phase, we can compare the ‘outcome’ attitudes of people in each message group to control. We can say that any statistically significant difference is because of the message they’ve seen. This is the most robust methodology available for testing the persuasion effects of messages.

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Winning story 1: Social norming/ ‘the way the world is going’

As the cost of electric vehicles falls, and the practicality rises, we’ve seen a huge uptake in their use across the UK.

According to studies, 50% of Brits either owns one or has a friend or family member who does. And once people have one, they love them.

They’re increasing in use among everyone - taxi drivers in cities, mums doing the shopping in town, white van men doing deliveries to villages - everyone.

�This is the way the world is moving now, as the environmental and consumer benefits become clear.

That’s why it’s right that the government sticks to plans to end the sale of new petrol cars in 2030 - using that time to make cleaner alternatives more open to everyone. Let’s keep it going.

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Winning story 2: Climate ��Electric cars can help us fight against climate change��In recent years, we’ve really seen the effects of climate change - from extreme heatwaves in the UK to devastating floods in Spain.��Scientists are clear: if humans don’t drastically reduce the pollution we’re putting into the atmosphere, we risk leaving our children and grandchildren with even worse impacts.��The good news is it’s not too late.��One simple thing we can do is change our cars - moving from polluting petrol vehicles to cleaner, modern electric ones. They may not be perfect, but EVs are much, much better for the environment over the car’s lifetime.��That’s why it’s right that the government stick to plans to end the sale of new cars powered solely by petrol and diesel in 2030 - and work hard now to make cleaner alternatives more easily available. Because later is too late.

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Winning story 3 (at least on 2030 target): Energy independence

�Electric cars can give us energy independence

The problem is simple: Britain’s energy supply is not in Britain’s hands. Right now, we’re dangerously dependent on importing oil and gas from unstable international markets. ��That means we don’t control our own destiny. When there’s volatility abroad - with tyrants like Putin invading other countries - energy prices shoot up here at home.��We need to take back control of our energy system. ��One immediate step is to power our cars with British-made electricity, not foreign-imported oil and gas. ��Every electric car sold is a step towards energy independence and self-reliance for the UK. ��That’s why it’s right that the government stick to plans to end the sale of new cars powered solely by petrol and diesel cars in 2030 - and work hard now to make cleaner alternatives more easily available. Let’s control our own destiny.

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Reflections on communications

Pro-EV/2030 advocates have three powerful arguments: EVs are becoming increasingly common in the UK (a sort of social ‘nudge’ or ‘norming’ argument); the need to take action on climate change, and energy independence (given its impact on support for the 2030 policy in the RCT). �
However, anti messages - focused on cost and disruption - are also capable of being effective. In this sense, it is all to play for on public opinion on this topic. �
For opponents of EVs, generally, successful arguments start “EVs are a nice idea in theory, but…” - this is because it meets voters half way. As we’ve seen in previous sections, they start with positive attitudes to EVs because most voters have latently pro-environment views. This more balanced tone is more effective at peeling off support than full on culture war messaging.�
In general, this was another experiment where jobs messaging was not salient to either pro or anti arguments. Likewise, just telling people EVs are cheap or practical did not seem very effective.�
Pro-EV/2030 advocates need to do a few things: �� (a) assuage consumer concerns: show voters that action is being taken to increase the practicality and cost of EVs, without over-claiming - lean into the rising number of ordinary people driving EVs as a powerful proof point, don’t just tell them EVs are getting more practical (‘show not tell’ principle).�� (b) engage with civic arguments too: remind people of why this transition is happening, using either climate or energy independence arguments. The risk otherwise is EV policy looks random.

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Finding #7: ‘counter intuitive’ messengers and endorsements work best to advance both the pro and EV side. The results here are fairly clear.

For pro-EV advocates, consumer voices do best. �
For anti-EV advocates, environmental voices do best.�
Interestingly, we find that Nigel Farage is actually a net hindrance to the anti-EV cause, pushing regular voters who might otherwise against the 2030 target over to the pro side to avoid being on the same side as him. This is a reminder that among mainstream voters, Farage is not a popular politician.

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Messenger experiment set-up

“Government re-affirms commitment to banning sale of petrol cars, pushing the uptake of electric vehicles. ��The Labour government has confirmed that it remains committed to banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in 2030, as part of its plan to increase the production and sale of electric vehicles. The commitment forms part of the government’s commitment to transition Britain to cleaner forms of energy. Consumers will still be able to buy second hand petrol and diesel cars.

The policy has attracted significant attention in recent weeks. It has been supported by [Messenger A], [Messenger B] and [Messenger C].

However, those voicing opposition to the policy have included [Messenger D], [Messenger E] and [Messenger F]”

To what extent do you support the government’s policy to phase out the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2030?

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Summary: most effective pro and anti messengers

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Summary: least effective pro and anti messengers

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Full list of results for

PRO-EV/2030 messengers

SEE INTERACTIVE LIVE TABLE

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Full list of ANTI-EV/2030 messengers

SEE INTERACTIVE LIVE TABLE

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Reflections on messengers

The best messengers for the pro-EV side are consumer voices and working class messengers who have embraced EVs.�
The best messengers for the anti-EV side tend to be those seen as pro-environment, as this gives ‘permission’ to more (pro-environment) voters to switch sides. Beyond this, consumer voices matter too.

Nigel Farage opposing this policy seems to actively help the pro-EV side, at least in this experiment. It takes regular voters who are sceptical of this policy but dislike Farage and bring them over to the pro-EV side - presumably as they don't want to be on the same side as him. He remains a highly polarising politician.

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Finding 8: it’s possible for EV advocates to neutralise some attacks on EVs to a draw (or near draw), but not those related to cost.

In general this experiment is another one showing that broadly favourable attitudes to EVs can be vulnerable to opposition messaging.

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Annex A: Full demographic crossbreaks

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Annex B: Paired statement narrative testing (scoping exercise prior to RCT)

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Annex C: Message wording

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Treatment 1: Anti message - practical (cost and range) or ‘only driven by elites’�

Random anti message A��Electric vehicles simply not practical ��More people driving Electric Vehicles might be a nice idea in theory, but the truth is they are only a realistic option for the well-off.

EVs remain far too expensive for ordinary people - petrol cars remain generally more affordable.��On top of that, EVs simply don’t have the battery life to be practical for most families. It’s ok if you just use your car to pop to the shops every now and again in a big city, but they’re hopeless if you need a car to make big journeys.�

That’s why forcing EVs on people by default - even in 2030 - is just out of touch with reality.

The government should immediately change its policy to end the sale of new petrol and diesel only cars - either push the deadline back or abolish it entirely.

�OR�Radom anti message B��Electric vehicles are yet more woke madness��This government’s whacky plan to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars in 2030 - and foist electric cars on everyone - is another sign of how out of touch the metropolitan elite is in this country.

�People who make policies like this swan around in London totally oblivious to the reality of most people’s lives, slapping themselves on the back about how ‘green’ they are. �

First they told us to buy diesel cars, now it’s electric cars. You couldn’t trust them then and you can’t now.��EVs are a load of old rubbish.

All this policy will do is destroy the car making industry in this country. But the eco zealots don’t care. �

They need to ditch this policy immediately and start governing with some common sense.

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Treatment 2: Climate ��Electric cars can help us fight against climate change��In recent years, we’ve really seen the effects of climate change - from extreme heatwaves in the UK to devastating floods in Spain.��Scientists are clear: if humans don’t drastically reduce the pollution we’re putting into the atmosphere, we risk leaving our children and grandchildren with even worse impacts.��The good news is it’s not too late.��One simple thing we can do is change our cars - moving from polluting petrol vehicles to cleaner, modern electric ones. They may not be perfect, but EVs are much, much better for the environment over the car’s lifetime.��That’s why it’s right that the government stick to plans to end the sale of new cars powered solely by petrol and diesel in 2030 - and work hard now to make cleaner alternatives more easily available. Because later is too late.

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Treatment 3: Energy independence

�Electric cars can give us energy independence

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Treatment 4: Consumer benefit

Electric cars are not just good for the environment, these days they are a great deal for consumers too.

In recent years, the price of a typical electric car has fallen dramatically and many providers now offer EVs at the same price.

And once you buy them, running them is cheaper too. If you re-charge at home, you can pay as little as £4 for a full charge, or 3p per mile.

On top of that, they are becoming more practical all the time. The batteries go for longer, charging is getting easier everywhere, and they break down less often.��That’s why it’s right that the government sticks to plans to end the sale of new petrol cars in 2030 - using that time to make cleaner alternatives more open to everyone. Let’s keep going with what’s good for people’s wallets.

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Treatment 5: Social norming/ ‘the way the world is going’

As the cost of electric vehicles falls, and the practicality rises, we’ve seen a huge uptake in their use across the UK.

According to studies, 50% of Brits either owns one or has a friend or family member who does. And once people have one, they love them.

They’re increasing in use among everyone - taxi drivers in cities, mums doing the shopping in town, white van men doing deliveries to villages - everyone.

�This is the way the world is moving now, as the environmental and consumer benefits become clear.

That’s why it’s right that the government sticks to plans to end the sale of new petrol cars in 2030 - using that time to make cleaner alternatives more open to everyone. Let’s keep it going.

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Treatment 6: Air pollution

Air pollution can be extremely damaging to our health - especially to the health of our children. ��And the truth is a big source of air pollution right now is petrol and diesel cars. ��They choke up our towns and cities with fumes and lead to people - especially young people - breathing in toxic air. �

Electric vehicles aren’t perfect but with no tail pipe emissions, they don’t emit any fumes that harm people’s health. �

Getting more clean cars on the road would be a big step towards cleaning up our air. ��That’s why it’s right that the government sticks to plans to end the sale of new petrol cars in 2030 - using that time to make cleaner alternatives more open to everyone. Let’s keep it going. Let’s clean up our air.

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Treatment 7: Jobs / China

When I hear ‘electric vehicles’, I don’t just think about the environment - I think ‘jobs’.

The shift to EVs presents Britain with significant economic opportunities.

A chance to revive car-manufacturing; to reindustrialise parts of the country that have seen industry decline since the 1980s. �

Secure, high-paying jobs in industries of the future in places that badly need them.

Why should those jobs go to China? We can make cars of the future right here in Britain, and reap the benefits.

That’s why it’s right that the government sticks to plans to end the sale of new petrol cars in 2030 - using that time to make cleaner alternatives more open to everyone. Let’s build up our industries of the future.

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