PSAR VIP
Session #16
02-14-2022
Contents
HTF BTC Analysis
HTF BTC Analysis
What to expect?
TODD: Indicator Updates
Wolfpack: Published open source, I love using this one to spot divergences across timeframes. The higher the TF the divergence, the stronger the move. Eventually I will add plots for highs/lows. https://www.tradingview.com/script/niEktQKz-STP-Wolfpack/
VWAP Alerts: Shoutout to @AltheAlligator for a fix for lower timeframe VWAP alerts. The script should be more stable on lower time frames. You may want to redo your alerts if using this script. Simply reload it on the chart and redo your alerts using TVAM. Please note this script will fire alerts ANYTIME ABOVE OR BELOW THE VWAP. https://www.tradingview.com/script/8eWNKXGA-Wick-Hunter-VWAP-with-Alerts/
TODD: Indicator Updates
WH VWAP Alerts: Current version will throw alerts ANYTIME above or below the VWAP, which may not be beneficial as it will always throw trades during dumps/pumps. This can be very dangerous as it will continually fire alerts as price goes against you.
MVWAP Version 2: New version MVWAP adds crossing condition which is more stable and requires a reset. 1. Price crosses above or below VWAP and triggers a long below/short above. 2. Price must “reset” above/below the VWAP to fire another alert. 3. Once price crosses above/below VWAP again alerts can be fired.
WH VWAP Alerts logic will remain ANYTIME above or below VWAP, new indicator will have crossing condition for lesser trades. Feel free to use either script.��
TODD: Indicator Updates
MVWAP Version 2: New version MVWAP has multiple timeframes and also a chart displaying PERCENT AWAY from VWAPS for each setting. This can be very helpful to plot all your current VWAP Settings for quick reference. You can plot your VWAP settings now using TOTAL3/ETH for rough VWAP settings and day to day VWAP checks on multiple pairs
I would recommend the following: plot your VWAP Settings on the chart for each timeframe to see how close your VWAPS are to the average. Using TOTAL3 will give you a good baseline; however there will ALWAYS BE SOME OUTLIER COINS that move different than TOTAL# so a deviation may be required.
0.53% Short from TOTAL3 is very close, 0.87% Long from TOTAL3 is acceptable.
This setting may require adjustments and a minimum % away from VWAPS can be achieved by measuring and adjusting VWAPS on the fly.
In the work:
GOAL: dynamically adjust VWAPS based on TV Calculating the data.
Set TF and PERIOD and your minimum % away for long and short using TOTAL3
TV Calculates the VWAP settings required for long and short and outputs these to the chart.
Add in potential to set alerts on candle close with the VWAP setting required to meet this minimum % away
TODD: Manual Trading Chart!
Indicators per chart
1 TREND INDICATOR: I use Price flow
1 CHANNEL INDICATOR: I use linear regression
1 SUPPORT/RESISTANCE INDICATOR (if needed) :
1 MOMENTUM INDICATOR to show tops/bottoms and divergences: I use Wolfpack
There is NO NEED to have multiple indicators that accomplish the same thing. Example: stochastic/rsi/wolfpack all do the same thing
SHARED CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/mxRdud9Q/
CEO: The Art of Shorting
CEO: The Art of Shorting
TODD: When to cut trades/ degen rules
DEGEN ACCOUNT RULES:
Mitigating risk:
-Allowing 3-4 pairs open max, 8% Isolation mode
-IPB increases when I can monitor the market.
-IPB decreases overnight, when I can not monitor the market, or when I have positions with DCA's open.
-TOTAL3 used to adjust VWAPS daily, try to stay with the trend at all times.
- Re-address vwaps or pairs when getting out of range 1 more than twice.
TODD: When to cut trades/ degen rules
POSITION MANAGEMENT:
Leaving bagged positions open forever and indefinitely is not a good thing to do. Positions left open are from signals that are no longer valid and should be treated as such (trades that are no longer valid)
If I incur a bag during a trading session (day): I will do the following to mitigate my risk:
-I will ensure that I can no longer add to the position via ensuring the bot is off or the pair is disabled. If pair is disabled manually set your take profit. You can also turn allocation per pair down to ensure it will not DCA anymore.
-I will leave the bag open overnight with a stop to protect against a range break, taken from the 1h chart.
-I will assign a time that the position was opened and allow it a 24h window to clear.
-I will cut open positions (bags) if open after 24 hours on Futures.
-If severe bags occur, aim to cut losing trades and save the account if market goes against you. You can always restart with 50% of the account value as opposed to 0%.
-After cutting open positions for a loss, it may be desirable to pause bots and sit out for a day or two to see market direction.
-After cutting open positions for a loss, it may be desirable to only trade with the remaining amount to regain the loss verse adding funds. This can be done by turning autotransfer off momentarily until the balance is regained. Example 10K balance, cutting a trade for -1500 and balance at 8500. Run with autotransfer off once comfortable until you are back to 10K.
TODD: When to cut trades/ degen rules
ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT:
Degen futures account balance should not exceed over 5-10% of user balance.
Account will need to be ROI'd TWICE and NOT Compounded. 10K producing 20K to SPOT is then able to be started twice if liquidated. Once ROI’d ensure you do not compound, you need to take majority of profits to spot to ensure it grows and your futures balance does not exceed 5-10% of total portfolio.
Plan for drawdown, plan for liquidations, learn to cut positions before they turn into account losses.
Maximum drawdown that the account can see prior to cutting all positions needs to be clearly defined: 10%-20% or AT MAX 2 TRADING DAYS (user dependent on average daily return). On good days the account can do 10-20% return so it makes sense to cut all positions in the 10-20% UPNL mark as it is only 1-2 trading days lost but may prevent further account losses.
WH can be used as an account level stoploss as it measures UPNL. Please be aware that this is in % of the account and the positions will then be sold at market. If 15% is selected it may end up at 5+market slippage or 16-20% loss depending on market movement. Alternatively users could use isolated leverage per position and just liquidate the margin on each position instead of using cross. Example: 20X leverage (100/20) is liquidated at 5% so this may be a potential use case.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
-Had thought of adding trade time monitoring to autotransfer which then could be used to cut losses. Example: If selected ON, cut open positions after XX hours open.
-Isolated leverage could be used strictly for CT trades and to liquidate anything outside of a certain range. IE liquidate positions entering Range2.
Tuff Octapus: Spot Updates
Please refer to TUFF for Spot updates
Node Pairs
**The basis for the T/A is that BTC can consolidate above 40.6k (Gap fill area potential on the CME’s), if we break further down expect bottom of ranges on these assets**
Luna - Big rising Wedge short opportunity - given BTC does break further down�Looking for a rejection of the outside trend line to get this break down – reject $54-$55 area and short can ridden out till BTC really hits its lower end of the range would could be a 30-40% drop for Luna longer term (1-2 months)��https://www.tradingview.com/x/NglgCE1b/
��AXS
Down sloping channel can be shorted near top of channel, if break of channel occurs can play long side to $75-$80 area
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JAReaZTr/
Alice
Reversal at the 38.2% retrace area we can see movement up potentially to next fib area $9-$12 areas 50%-61.8% golden zone
Near bottom of rectangle range.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JAReaZTr/
AVAX
Long term channel up -- Shorter time scale crossing bullish on the daily a break of $90 area will give this a chance at seeing the ATH's real fast since there is not much resistance up here on this asset. If we do get rejection we can expect a move to $70-$75 areas as supports
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6zcuZscL/
GALA
Asset did a perfect retest of the old trading range and consolidated before starting its reversal on 2/5
Range to break $.40 area the 78.6% retrace on my chart --> next range is the 88.6% ($.40-$.60) and then to ATH's the fundamentals behind this coin are strong
Technicals we broke a down sloping channel, i expect a back test and a potential consolidation before moving higher as this asset has already appreciated around 50% since 2/5
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xTnlJrFl/
ETC
ETC a classic here in a massive down sloping channel showing a potential for a swing to at least the top of the channel areas ($40-$50)
Macro could be a in wedge pattern as well
https://www.tradingview.com/x/PsNrKEE2/
DYDX
Falling wedge potential breakout here as well
Range to $9-$10
Downside if a fake break to retest 6-7
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qLlo0K9Y/
Q & A