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Navigating Uncertainty: Nonprofit Scenario Planning in the Current Political Environment

Monday, May 12, 2025

1pm – 4pm

Bob Searle

Partner

The Bridgespan Group

Colleen Brosman

Partner

The Bridgespan Group

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About The Bridgespan Group

Developing &�Sharing Insights

Leadership

Development

Philanthropy

Consulting

Nonprofit & NGO

Strategy Consulting

The Bridgespan Group is a global nonprofit organization that collaborates with mission-driven leaders, organizations, and philanthropists, to make the world more equitable and just.

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Why we’re here today...

As nonprofit leaders, we are facing unprecedented levels of disruption
A slate of executive orders, funding freezes, and reductions to the federal workforce are directly impacting our work

Blocks, delays, losses of funding
Heightened scrutiny, threats to nonprofit status
Strategic and operational pivots

Decisions are being rolled out rapidly, many are being challenged in court, driving confusion amid a fluctuating legal landscape
In moments like these, scenario planning can help us make sense of uncertainty

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What’s on your mind?

@BridgespanGroup

What are you already experiencing as a result of the current environment?

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IDENTIFY IMPACTED AREAS

DESCRIBE POTENTIAL IMPACTS

CREATE PORTFOLIO OF ACTIONS

DETERMINE TRIGGER POINTS

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Scenario planning is a way to provide structure around making key strategic choices under uncertainty

Continuous iteration

As circumstances change, new information is available

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STEP 1: Identify Impacted Areas

IDENTIFY IMPACTED AREAS

Describe potential impacts

Create portfolio of actions

Determine trigger points

What aspects of your organization might be most impacted?

STRATEGY/

PROGRAMS

FINANCIAL

OPERATIONS

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TIP: Don’t get distracted by small stuff

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STEP 1: Identify Impacted Areas

STRATEGY/�PROGRAMS

OPERATIONS

FUNDING

Changing needs of the people you serve
Programmatic approach
Restrictions in doing the work
External partners

Protecting core operations
Differentially affected staff
Threats of legal action
Managing leadership and organizational capacity

Government funding streams
Philanthropic funding
Earned revenue

HIGH	HIGH
HIGH	HIGH
HIGH	HIGH
LOW	HIGH

MED	MED
MED	MED
LOW	MED
HIGH	LOW

HIGH	HIGH
LOW	HIGH
HIGH	LOW

Likelihood?

Magnitude?

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EXERCISE 1: Identify the likelihood and magnitude of the major risks you face

STRATEGY/�PROGRAMS

OPERATIONS

FUNDING

Changing needs of the people you serve
Programmatic approach
Restrictions in doing the work
External partners

Protecting core operations
Differentially affected staff
Threats of legal action
Managing leadership and organizational capacity

Government funding streams
Philanthropic funding
Earned revenue

Likelihood?

Magnitude?

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STEP 2: Describe Potential Impacts

Construct moderate-, and worst-case scenarios anchored in these key drivers and uncertainties, that reflect the full spectrum of possible outcomes
Translate these scenarios into their related budgetary impact
Consider ~6-12-month time horizons for each scenario to understand their potential impact

TIP: Precision isn’t the goal

TIP: Don’t underestimate

Identify

impacted areas

DESCRIBE POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Create portfolio of actions

Determine trigger points

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		STATUS QUO	MODERATE CASE	WORST CASE
Programs	Changing needs: Reduced access to public programs like SNAP	No impact on access	Moderate reduction in average benefit (e.g., 10-15%) increases demand for support	Significant reduction (e.g., 30-45%) creates demand beyond capacity to serve
	Program approach: Policy environment less receptive to our advocacy	No impact on activities	Need to shift efforts to combat headwinds/play defense	Unable to raise funds for these activities because of potential backlash
	Restrictions in doing the work: Legal barriers to service delivery	No impact on activities	Legal hurdles increase cost/reduce number of clients	Complete legal ban
Operations


Funding	Government funding for programs like Head Start	No change in grant commitment (current level $500K)	50% decrease in grant amount	Grant rescinded
Funding

STEP 2a: Describe Potential Impacts (Example)

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	STATUS QUO	MODERATE CASE	WORST CASE
Programs


Operations


Funding
Funding

EXERCISE 2a: Describe Potential Impacts

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		STATUS QUO	MODERATE CASE	FINANCIAL IMPACT	WORST CASE	FINANCIAL IMPACT
Programs	Changing needs: Reduced access to public programs like SNAP	No impact on access	Moderate reduction in average benefit (e.g., 10-15%) increases demand for support		Significant reduction (e.g., 30-45%) creates demand beyond capacity to serve
	Program approach: Policy environment less receptive to our advocacy	No impact on activities	Need to shift efforts to combat headwinds/play defense		Unable to raise funds for these activities because of potential backlash
	Restrictions in doing the work: Legal barriers to service delivery	No impact on activities	Legal hurdles increase cost/reduce number of clients		Complete legal ban
Funding	Government funding for programs like Head Start	No change in grant commitment (current level $500K)	50% decrease in grant amount		Grant rescinded

STEP 2b: Quantify Potential Impacts (Example)

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		STATUS QUO	MODERATE CASE	FINANCIAL IMPACT	WORST CASE	FINANCIAL IMPACT
Programs	Changing needs: Reduced access to public programs like SNAP	No impact on access	Moderate reduction in average benefit (e.g., 10-15%) increases demand for support	$15,000 increase in costs to provide additional benefits	Significant reduction (e.g., 30-45%) creates demand beyond capacity to serve	$40,000 increase in costs to provide additional benefits
	Program approach: Policy environment less receptive to our advocacy	No impact on activities	Need to shift efforts to combat headwinds/play defense	No financial impact Shift in strategy for current staff	Unable to raise funds for these activities because of potential backlash	$150,000 reduction in revenue Unable to continue program
	Restrictions in doing the work: Legal barriers to service delivery	No impact on activities	Legal hurdles increase cost/reduce number of clients	25% reduction in clients served, which reduces revenue by $25,000	Complete legal ban	Unable to continue program
Funding	Government funding for programs like Head Start	No change in grant commitment (current level $500K)	50% decrease in grant amount	50% decrease in grant amount ($250,000 reduction in revenue)	Grant rescinded	Grant rescinded ($500,000 reduction in revenue)

STEP 2b: Quantify Potential Impacts (Example)

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		STATUS QUO	MODERATE CASE	FINANCIAL IMPACT	WORST CASE	FINANCIAL IMPACT
Programs	Changing needs: Reduced access to public programs like SNAP	No impact on access	Moderate reduction in average benefit (e.g., 10-15%) increases demand for support	$15,000 increase in costs to provide additional benefits	Significant reduction (e.g., 30-45%) creates demand beyond capacity to serve	$40,000 increase in costs to provide additional benefits
	Program approach: Policy environment less receptive to our advocacy	No impact on activities	Need to shift efforts to combat headwinds/play defense	No financial impact Shift in strategy for current staff	Unable to raise funds for these activities because of potential backlash	$150,000 reduction in revenue Unable to continue program
	Restrictions in doing the work: Legal barriers to service delivery	No impact on activities	Legal hurdles increase cost/reduce number of clients	25% reduction in clients served, which reduces revenue by $25,000	Complete legal ban	Unable to continue program
Funding	Government funding for programs like Head Start	No change in grant commitment (current level $500K)	50% decrease in grant amount	50% decrease in grant amount ($250,000 reduction in revenue)	Grant rescinded	Grant rescinded ($500,000 reduction in revenue)

STEP 2b: Quantify Potential Impacts (Example)

	Status Quo	Moderate Case	Worst Case
Revenue	3,000,000	-25,000 -250,000	-150,000 -500,000
Expenses	2,750,000	+15,000	+40,000
Net	250,000	-40,000	-440,000

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	STATUS QUO	MODERATE CASE	FINANCIAL IMPACT	WORST CASE	FINANCIAL IMPACT
Programs


Operations


Funding
Funding

EXERCISE 2b: Describe Potential Impacts

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STEP 3: Create Portfolio of Actions

Identify impacted areas

Describe potential impacts

CREATE PORTFOLIO OF ACTIONS

Determine trigger points

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Appropriate for any scenario

“No regrets” actions with positive benefits under any scenario

Smaller-scale and flexible

Actions that can be executed quickly and reversed, if needed, as circumstances change

Larger and more permanent

Actions that reflect significant investments, cost reductions or operational changes

Example: Contact funders to ask if grant restrictions can be released to address near-term needs

Example: Shift capacity from one program area or site to another; temporarily reduce executive compensation

Example: Close a program site, or revise a strategy, based on political or funding changes

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STEP 3: Create a portfolio of actions

No regrets moves

Action	Operational implications	Economic impact	Estimated $$ (+ or -)
1	Y / N	Y / N	$
2	Y / N	Y / N	$
3	Y / N	Y / N	$
4	Y / N	Y / N	$
5	Y / N	Y / N	$
6	Y / N	Y / N	$
7	Y / N	Y / N	$
8	Y / N	Y / N	$
9	Y / N	Y / N	$
10	Y / N	Y / N	$
Total estimated cost incurred or saved			$

Calculate costs incurred / savings achieved by each action over the relevant time horizon in the scenario model (e.g., 1 year)

Note:

Your list of no regrets moves will likely include a mix of tactical actions that have little to no measurable financial impact, and some that do

For the latter, include the cost incurred or savings achieved by taking this action
Then calculate the total costs incurred or savings achieved by taking these collective no regrets moves

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STEP 3: Create a portfolio of actions

Category	Action	Operational implications	Estimated $$ (+ or -)
No regrets	Pull total cost savings from prior worksheet	Y/N	$

Flexible options / “handbrakes”	1	Y/N	$
	2	Y/N	$
	3	Y/N	$
	4	Y/N	$
	5	Y/N	$

Major investments / cost reductions	6	Y/N	$
	7	Y/N	$
	8	Y/N	$
	9	Y/N	$
	10	Y/N	$
	Total estimated cost incurred or saved		$

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No regrets moves:�Actions with positive benefits under any future scenario

ILLUSTRATIVE

Cost category	Action	Definition
People	Implement hiring freeze	Implement a hiring freeze (for nonessential positions), including delaying any future hires
	Reduce personnel related discretionary spending	Temporary halt learning & development programs, ancillary benefits (e.g., car allowance, parking, mobile phones), and other voluntary payments (e.g., office snacks, etc.)
	Review HR policies	Review, standardize, and enforce HR policies with meaningful cost implications (i.e., overtime, expenses, etc.); tighten policies to limit use of overtime / reduce hours worked
	Shift employee roles	Re-assign employees that are fungible to mission-critical roles
Occupancy	Renegotiate rent payments	Reach out to landlord to renegotiate monthly rent of service sites / offices and / or discuss payment deferrals
	Pause future expansions	Delay expansion of programs to new geographies until a path to financial sustainability is achieved
	Reduce occupancy related discretionary spending	Hold off on any planned occupancy spending that is not essential to programming, including renovations
Tech	Provide WFH allowances	Consider offering a modest WFH allowance to provide critical tech to employees working remotely
	Rationalize software licenses	Make an inventory of all software licenses; determine how many licenses are truly necessary
	Invest to support remote collaboration	Invest in remote collaboration technologies (e.g., Zoom, Skype) to allow continued program delivery / employee communication
	Reduce tech related discretionary spending	Hold off on any planned technology spending that is not essential to programming
G&A	Simplify processes	Reduce unnecessary details in [document] submissions; reduce volume of management reports

Note: Per the Wallace Foundation, workforce-related expenses make up to 70-80% of most organization’s budgets

Source: Harvard Business Review; Wallace Foundation ; Bridgespan ; McKinsey ; BCG; SSIR ; Bain

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Flexible options or “handbrakes”:�Smaller scale, flexible investments or cost reduction measures

ILLUSTRATIVE

Cost category	Action	Definition
People	Furlough staff wages	Furlough certain staff to account for lower volume of program / service delivery; consider rotating furloughs amongst staff to ease individual impact
	Temporarily reduce executive compensation	Consider reducing executive compensation temporarily; potential to “payback” executives once financial stability has been reached
	Temporarily freeze employee compensation	Consider freezing employee salaries, deferring any raises and / or bonuses until after the crisis stabilizes
	Temporarily reduce employee benefits	Consider opportunities to cut back on employee benefits (e.g., reduce or pause 401k and / or 403B match, reduce paid vacation time, or renegotiate health insurance terms – explore cost sharing with employees or restructure plan when possible)
	Provide part-time options to under capacity staff	Consider shifting under capacity staff to a 4-day work week or offer part-time options
	Offer unpaid leave	Offer employees the opportunity to take unpaid leave if they so wish, framing it as a ‘sabbatical’ to take the stigma of the absence away
	Shorten work week	Institute shorter work weeks, cut hours or pay, freeze / remove over-time, shift staff from full time to part time
Occupancy	Consider sub-leasing unused space	Explore options to temporarily sub-lease unused space
	Curtail utilities	Consider temporarily halting existing utilities (e.g., electricity, internet) as staff work from home
	Pivot from in-person to online service delivery	Aside from programs already transitioned to a virtual setting (out of necessity) consider what other programs might also be shifted, with the goal of reducing occupancy costs
G&A	Renegotiate existing contracts / equipment leases	Review existing contracts and identify opportunities to renegotiate better rates and / or defer service if deemed not critical (e.g., copier leases, insurance contracts, etc.)
G&A	Pause / eliminate unnecessary consulting / contractor support	Review existing contractor / consulting supports and eliminate those deemed not critical

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Major investments/cost reductions:�Larger scale, permanent actions; may have differential payoffs

Cost category	Action	Definition
People	Layoff non-essential staff	Lay off certain staff who are not critical to preserving the organization’s core
People	Consider early retirement	Review employees eligible for early retirement
Occupancy	Close program sites / locations	Shut down operation / programs in low-demand locations (or due to exposure risk) temporarily and / or long-term
	Close central office	Close and lease central office, preparing staff to WFH for the foreseeable future
	Sell unused property	Consider sale of property / real estate no longer financially or operationally viable due to crisis
G&A	Partner / collaborate with peer orgs to reduce G&A	Combine operations with another nonprofit providers to temporarily lower back-office costs, create economies of scale, or share best practices
	Formally pursue M&A	Consider formal merger or acquisition to permanently lower back-office costs, create economies of scale, or ensure service continuity in the face of potential bankruptcy

ILLUSTRATIVE

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EXERCISE 3: Create a portfolio of actions

No regrets moves

Action	Operational implications	Economic impact	Estimated $$ (+ or -)
1	Y / N	Y / N	$
2	Y / N	Y / N	$
3	Y / N	Y / N	$
4	Y / N	Y / N	$
5	Y / N	Y / N	$
6	Y / N	Y / N	$
7	Y / N	Y / N	$
8	Y / N	Y / N	$
9	Y / N	Y / N	$
10	Y / N	Y / N	$
Total estimated cost incurred or saved			$

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EXERCISE 3: Create a portfolio of actions

Category	Action	Operational implications	Estimated $$ (+ or -)
No regrets	Pull total cost savings from prior worksheet	Y/N	$

Flexible options / “handbrakes”	1	Y/N	$
	2	Y/N	$
	3	Y/N	$
	4	Y/N	$
	5	Y/N	$

Major investments / cost reductions	6	Y/N	$
	7	Y/N	$
	8	Y/N	$
	9	Y/N	$
	10	Y/N	$
	Total estimated cost incurred or saved		$

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STEP 4: Determine Trigger Points

Trigger point could be a TREND

If program participation drops by X%

If service requests increase by Y%

Trigger point could be an EVENT or DATE

If X contract falls through

By X date, we’ll need to decide whether to move forward with (or cancel) annual organization retreat

TIP: Establish (or update) your decision processes and roles so that you’re ready to act when needed

Identify impacted areas

Describe potential impacts

Create portfolio of actions

DETERMINE �TRIGGER POINTS

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Peer sharing

Questions to discuss in your groups

Are there any “aha”s that came out of this planning – either about the key risks, potential scenarios, or potential actions?
What questions is it raising for you that you might be able to get thought partnership on from a peer?
Are there any opportunities that this moment might offer your organization?

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Next steps

Category	Next steps	Lead	Additional staff involved	Deadline
Identify risks
Describe and quantify risks
Summarize potential financial impact
Identify& quantify the impact of potential actions
Identify trigger points

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Here are some additional resources you might find useful

National Council of Nonprofits’ updated tracking of executive orders

Scenario Planning Toolkit and other resources available on Bridgespan.org

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@BridgespanGroup

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