Daily Market Journal

Date:

06.07.2024 Saturday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• “January path: Green path: We follow the fractal of the January highs, where we flip the H1 bands now green and we start to chop around them showing some possible strength. “
• Saw this path develop today, will give a long breakdown in todays journal comparing now to the jan 23 39K bottom.#

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• “On the lower TFs a bit of a further squeeze could be possible”
• Based on the Liquidation heatmap yesterday we could see some liquidity squeezed out on the short side

BTC

• What did Price do today?
• Price turned the H1 bands green and compressed into them
• Price had a move up from the bands, towards the 2021 Feb Highs Pivot
• Price is also coming into the H1 slower moving EMAs (100EMA currently) which could be a potential area for resistance

Key Levels (Current BTC Price = 57923)

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• Liquidity levels (stops resting):
• UP:
• 72061.7 (SEC ETH ETF news pump highs)
• DOWN:
• 53329.5 (05.07 friday’s lows)

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• HTF Opens
• 62766.1 (Monthly and Weekly Open) we are currently below = bears in control
• 71363.0 (Highest monthly close, Pivot)

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• OB levels
• 51300 - 52050 (Bullish OB)

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• Pivots
• 58472.1 (2021 Febs High Pivot) retested bearish, now resistance
• 64986.1 (2021 Aprils High Pivot)
• 69198.7 (2021 ATH + Pivot SR)
• 70K (round number Pivot)
• 71363.0 (Key ATH resistance Pivot)

Different exchange prices may differ . The below shown prices are form the Binance and Bybit Perps USDT chart

Volume Profile on the Daily chart

I drew up 2 Volume profiles:

1. From the January Bottom to BTC’s current ATH
2. From June’s highs to the current bottom

Why am I looking at these Volume Profiles?

1. The Q1 rally was a significant rally that brought us all the way from 39K to 74K in a matter of 51 days, and because of it’s up-only nature left a lot of unfilled inefficiencies behind.
1. Seeing the accumulation areas (marked with blue) inside it could be crucial in seeing where price finds support, or if it loses an area it could unwind quickly to the next.
2. ​
2. This selloff we had since June was pretty much a down only grind, full with bullish cope. The people who bought on the way down thinking we find support at 60K are now underwater.
• Reclaiming the Value Area (marked with green) of this selloff could be a clear bullish sign from the market, signaling strength

Todays update: Price is currently above the 50-52K Accumulation area, and below the selloffs Value Area marked in green.

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CME Annualized Basis

The annualized basis is how much % one could make on an annualized basis with longing Spot and shorting Futures.

Historically anything below 0% is a huge buy, and anything around or below 5% is a strong buy.

If we see the Annualized Basis touch below 5% in bull market environment it is a no-brainer spot buy opportunity.

Current level:

9.25%

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BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• Price up 8.49%, OI up 3%.
• Futures CVDs more aggressive on the buy side than spot CVD
• Liquidation harmony on the short side as price is moving up
• Funding above 0
• Spot premium present

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Big divergence in price and OI, potentially showing no support for the move up. Spot CVD weaker then the Future CVDs, not what you would want to see at a potential bottom.

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• Liquidation heatmap:
• Still some liquidity above that could be squeezed further

Comparison to the 39K Bottom on January 23

I mentioned in yesterdays Daily Journal that the Jan 23 bottom at 39K looked pretty similar in PA as that what we are seeing currently at a current 54K bottom.

I decided to compare PA, LTF data, HTF data and BTC-ALT relation both at Jan 23 and Today.

Aspects that are similar:

• PA so far very similar to the Jan 23 bottom at 39K.
• BTC - ALT relation very similar as it was on Jan 23.
• Funding above 0 and below neutral both now and Jan 23.

Aspects that are different:

• Price moving significantly ahead of OI NOW. On Jan 23 Price and OI were moving together.
• Spot CVD not leading neither on HTF and LTF now, compared to Jan 23 where it did lead.
• Price below support both time, but OI NOW not below support, compared to Jan 23 where OI was also below support.

Data now: Price up 8.49%, OI up 3%. Futures CVDs more aggressive on the buy side than spot CVD. Funding above 0

Data on Jan 23: Price up 3.87%, OI up 3.9%. Spot CVD stronger than Future CVDs. Funding at neutral.

HTF Data now: Price below support but OI still above. All CVDs down.

HTF Data January: Price below support, OI below support too. Future CVDs down, Spot CVD up.

Current BTC - ALT relation since the selloff: BTC and Total 3 side by side

BTC - ALT relation at the 39K bottom: BTC slight stronger than Total 3 but close together

Conclusions from the comparison:

• PA wise both now and Jan 23 look very similar. Price lost key support with a 3 leg push down into the lows, and is bouncing up from the lows.
• Price reclaimed the H1 bands in a fairly similar manner.
• Data looking worse now, as OI is not supporting the bounce, and spot CVD is NOT showing buying pressure now as it did on Jan 23.
• This pretty much shows that currently there is no big spot market buy support looking at only the CVDs.

The comparison would lead me to the conclusion, that from a PA perspective this could be a similar bottom formation, but the data is quite diverging from the Jan 23 bottom signaling more weakness compared to the Jan 23 bottom.

Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• Total 3 stronger than BTC today, showing ALT strength on the bounce today
• ETH the same as BTC
• BTC D red day

USDT Margin Borrow Interest Rate = (Leverage in the system)

Borrow rates sideways. Around the pre-eth etf news levels.

BTC and ETH Open Interest

We can see the exchanges and the open OI on them. This can give us an insight of positions opening or closing, and the presence or absence of demand towards the two majors.

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BTC OI

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ALL OI: 28.44B

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ETH OI

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ALL OI: 12.56B

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All open OI

ETH/BTC ratio:

44.1%

Todays changes:

• 500mil increase in total OI

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• 390mil increase in CME OI
• 160mil increase in Bybit OI

Todays changes:

• 230mil increase in total OI

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• 110mil increase in Binance OI
• 110mil increase in Bybit OI

BTC possible paths

1. Further squeeze: Green path: We squeeze further up and we touch the 2021 Feb Highs Pivot, and we potentially reject from it.

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• Following the Jan 23 bottom path: Orange path: We move back into the H1 bands and we hold them. We chop around them for the rest of sunday.

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• Losing the H1 bands: Red path: We lose the H1 bands after coming back into them. We start to move back towards the lows, potentially setting up for lower next week.

Stocks, Macro

• Weekend, markets closed.

Other coins, honorable mentions

• AKT had a move back into the SR area, and had now a strong reclaim of it today.
• The SR area is also the top of the Value Area drawn from the bear market breakout to today.
• Holding this SR area is key as also my purple path suggest. I think holding here is potentially the only bullish outcome in the near term. Losing this area might mean much more chop coming.
• ​
• The Daily bands are close to turning green which is a bullish sign of a potential sideways consolidation phase incoming instead of more downside.
• The 2D bands stopped going down, and are now starting to come closer signaling potential sideways movement.
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• My strategy is to wait first for the 1D bands to turn green and then the 2D bands to turn green to consider to allocate funds into AKT. Until then I’m just watching how it’s PA develops.

Market conclusion / thoughts / future outlooks

• Could the bottom be in? Yes it could be. But in that case we would need to see some significant strength from the market, and reclaiming key levels in the near future to the upside.
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• If we start to move back towards the lows, that would probably signal weakness as there was no demand here above 55K to hold price up not to make a new low based on candle closes (a sweep would be fine).
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• A lot of people made a lot of money just by holding coins and seeing their money multiply. The ones who didnt exit or came in late are coping as they hold on to the thought how much they had at the highs.
• If somewhen, now would be the time to see a real capitulation of people, as a lot of people are full with bags that are down, and they need to sell those in fear in order for the market to bottom out.

Further notes about the market - if any

Patience. Analyse. Build systems and strategies. Now is the time.