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Wargaming� for Defense Leaders

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.

22 July 13

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Purpose

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To provide leaders information on the importance, scope, and application of wargaming within DoD - as well as information on deriving the most value from wargaming

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Overview

  • Defense Leaders & Wargaming
  • Why you need to understand wargaming
  • Wargaming: Elements & Parameters
  • US Strategic Wargaming
  • USAF/AFMC Wargaming
  • How you can apply wargaming

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Defense Leaders and Wargaming

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The Need To Understand Wargaming

Wargaming:

  • Is an ubiquitous decision aid across the US Defense Community
  • Can help clarify and communicate the impact of alternative resource allocations
  • Is a powerful tool for professional and organizational development at all levels

Like a powerful drug, wargaming has the capacity to do great good & great harm

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Elements of Wargames

White

Red

Blue

WG

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Parameters of Wargaming

Level of War

Duration

Participants

Hours

300

Minutes

Days

Months

Years

30

1200

12

6

3

Theater Strategic

Close Tactical

National Strategic

FPS

Alliance Strategic

High Tactical

Operational

Wargames may be optimized to support specific decisions or to develop: individuals, teams, concepts or forecasts of the future environment

Tactical

Other Parameters Include:

Depth into future of scenario

Resources (0 to a lot)

Prep time (0 to a lot)

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Federal Budget

Process

OSD

Svs

JCS

Comb.Cdr

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I

INITIATION

II

CONCEPT

DEVELOPMENT

III

PLAN

DEVELOPMENT

IV

PLAN

REVIEW

V

SUPPORT

PLANS

JOPES

CPG

JSCP

PDMs

BESs

PBDs

PLANNING

BUDGETING

PPBS

President’s

Budget

FYDP

DPG

CPA

CPR

JPD

JSR

Annual

Report

CPR

CPA

JV 20xx

NMS

JSCP

JPD

JSPS

JQRR

IPLs

POMs

PROGRAMMING

DP

CAP

CRS

JROC

JWCA

ACRONYM�SOUP

QDR

US Defense Planning Systems

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US Strategic Wargaming

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

Pol/Mil

Title 10

Theater Wargaming

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US Strategic Wargaming�Service Title 10 Wargames

  • Each Is Unique
    • US Air Force
      • Unified Engagement
      • Future Capabilities Game
    • Navy – Global
    • Army – Unified Quest
    • USMC – Expeditionary Warrior
  • All Have Common Attributes
    • All Joint
    • Most Combined (typically UK, Canada, Australia)
    • Each service agrees to use only
      • Defense Planning Scenarios
      • Concepts from the owning service’s Toolbox

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HQ Air Force Wargaming

AF Corporate

Structure

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POM

COCOM with assigned�MAJCOM/#AF�# Plan Wargames

POM

2 X POM

4 X POM

Service & GCCs

Service

Even Year

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AF/A5X

Odd Year

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AF/A8X

Execution

Actionable

Insights

Futures Game

Unified Engagement

Every 2 Years

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COCOMs

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HQ Air Force Wargaming

AF Corporate

Structure

​

​

POM

COCOM with assigned�MAJCOM/#AF�# Plan Wargames

POM

2 X POM

4 X POM

Service & GCCs

Service

Even Year

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AF/A5X

Odd Year

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AF/A8X

Execution

Actionable

Insights

Futures Game

Unified Engagement

Sister Service

AF MAJCOMS

Every 2 Years

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COCOMs

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USAF Major Command Wargaming

Execute /Participate in Wargames, Selected�Based on Strategy

Compilation

Strategy/Plan for Wargame Participation

Prepare Participants

Prepare Concepts +

Leaders Planners

POM & Other Decisions

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Help Applying Wargaming

  • Major Command Wargame Office
    • Coordinates wargaming within Command
    • Interfaces with the HAF & wargame community
  • Wargame Working Group Members
    • Element’s link to HQ Major Command, HAF & DoD wide wargaming
    • Can advise you on:
      • The fit and feasibility of potential wargame applications
      • Appropriate confidence level in wargame insights
  • Wargame CoP
    • Wargame reports
    • Wargame calendar
    • Wargame educational resources

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Assessing Confidence

  • Always assess confidence before decisions
  • Every wargame predicts the future; however:
    • They are seldom dead-on
    • Most often they are close enough to be useful
    • Occasionally, they are so wrong they have misled
  • Principal influences on confidence
    • Difficulty of subject being wargamed
    • Quality of wargame’s planning and execution �

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Sometimes wargame results are preempted because

we acted to change the forecast future

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Conclusion

Effective use of wargames can help us make more effective decisions, secure funds, and better prepare today’s and tomorrow’s leaders.

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Wargames save lives.