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The History of Wargaming

Wargaming’s MVPs Edition

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.

25 June 2020

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Nye’s Mystery

Patton bought all books he read
He never gave away a book he read
He would sign and date every book he started
He would date the last page of every book� he read

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Nye’s Mystery

Patton wrote, spoke and displayed leadership
He finished very few books on leadership

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Nye’s Answer

Patton read many bios of great leaders
He decided for himself what made them great

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Napoleon's Innovation

Awarded far more metals then previous
Why

It is the right thing to do
It inspires comrades

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Why learn of Wargming’s

MVPs

It is the right thing to do
We can learn from them
They can inspire us

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First Generation (Abstract) Wargames

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Opportunity

Fredrick‘s use of maps
Clerk models naval� combat
Abstract games grow� less abstract:

1664 Koinigspiel
1780 Kriegschach
1797 New Kriegspiel

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Motive

Napoleon’s Conquests

Technology
Genius
Meritocracy
Numbers

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The Origins of Modern Wargaming

1811 - Herr von Reisswitz - a base of sand

1824 - Lt Reisswitz - the expanding circle

Second Generation (Fire & Movement) Wargame

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- Offsite

- Brain Storming

- Wargame

- Exercise

- Deliberate Planning

Moltke’s Process

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World Wide Wargaming

Austro-Hungarian

England

Italy

France

Russia

Secondary diffusion

1820 / 1875 / 1905

1874 / 1889

1873

1872 / 1883

1866

Japan, Turkey, Latin Am.

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Coming to America

US Army

1883 – Major (later Col) Livermore
1890s – Major Sayer, US Army C&GSC

	1 Sided	2 Sided
Constructive	Map Exercise	Map Maneuver
Live	Field Exercise	Field Maneuver

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Coming to America

1886 - William �McCarty Little�US Naval War College

US Navy

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Birth of Modern Civilian Wargaming

The Reserve Connection

1873- Wilkinson - one man’s impact
1890s Delbrück - first duty of the new rulers

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Birth of Modern Civilian Wargaming

The Popularizes

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Birth of Modern Civilian Wargaming

The Popularizes

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Wargaming & the Great War

Pre-war Wargaming

● 1905 The wargames that shaped the world

● 1910s Moltke the Younger and the return� of rigor

● 1914 The wg that didn’t change history

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Wargaming & the Great War

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Inter War Wargaming

General von Seeckt

Kept Wargamers
Deeper Bench
Taught the Army�how to learn

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Innovation Cycle

History

Theory

Doctrine

Plan

Execution

The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy Cycle, a way of thinking about the evolution of military thought I conceived in 1994. The thought for it arose during a meeting of Air Command and Staff College faculty. The question had been asked if our then Commandant Colonel John Warden wanted us to focus on helping our students develop into effective air campaign planners why was there so much history in the curriculum, and why so much theory. I defended the inclusion of history arguing that history was a very valuable tool for the strategist, providing a tool box of ideas on what worked and what did not work in the past. I also defended the inclusion of theory, asserting as no one could learn all military history in one lifetime (though some of our faculty appeared to be trying) theory provided a relatively brief overview of history. Yet theory alone was not enough, we needed to learn enough history to assess the validity theories. By now I was at the white board and on a role. I then said even history and theory was not enough as for organizations to function effectively they needed to share common theories. I said theories we agree with as organizations are doctrines. Then I said, even this is not enough as doctrine is general, we need to study how doctrine can be applied to develop specific plans. Most plans are never executed but when they are they become a additional piece of history and the process (should) repeat.

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Innovation Cycle�With Wargamig

History

Theory

Doctrine

Plan

Wargame

The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy Cycle, a way of thinking about the evolution of military thought I conceived in 1994. The thought for it arose during a meeting of Air Command and Staff College faculty. The question had been asked if our then Commandant Colonel John Warden wanted us to focus on helping our students develop into effective air campaign planners why was there so much history in the curriculum, and why so much theory. I defended the inclusion of history arguing that history was a very valuable tool for the strategist, providing a tool box of ideas on what worked and what did not work in the past. I also defended the inclusion of theory, asserting as no one could learn all military history in one lifetime (though some of our faculty appeared to be trying) theory provided a relatively brief overview of history. Yet theory alone was not enough, we needed to learn enough history to assess the validity theories. By now I was at the white board and on a role. I then said even history and theory was not enough as for organizations to function effectively they needed to share common theories. I said theories we agree with as organizations are doctrines. Then I said, even this is not enough as doctrine is general, we need to study how doctrine can be applied to develop specific plans. Most plans are never executed but when they are they become a additional piece of history and the process (should) repeat.

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Germany

– Strategic Innovation

First; Pol/Mil, Red Team,
“Blood & Mud”

- Operational Innovation

Blitzkrieg
Wolf Packs

Inter War Wargaming

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US

Navy: Learn to learn, cycle of WGs
USMC: Accelerate RMA
Army:

Ground: Just in Time
Air Corps: A false dawn

Inter War Wargaming

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Inter War Wargaming

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French –

Innovation vs training
Playing Red

Inter War Wargaming

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World War II

Germany

● Mannstein makes his case

● Barbarossa - an accurate mistake

● Victory at Normandy, twice

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World War II

Both battles of Midway

Why did Japan keep on fighting

Japan

The Total War Research Institute

Both attacks on Pearl Harbor

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World War II

UK

Both extremes

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World War II

UK

Both extremes
To teach and learn what to teach

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Western Approaches Command

Commander Gilbert Roberts

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World War II

US

US Army Ground Forces – shortage
US Army Air Forces - sorely missed
USMC “eerie” success, then..
Navy success - but ...

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World War II

The war with Japan had been [enacted] in the game room

here by so many people in so many different ways that

nothing that happened during the war was a surprise,

– absolutely nothing except the Kamikaze…”.

Fleet Admiral Chester Nimitz

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Eclipse

Did „The Bomb“ make

wargames obsolete?

Decline in the

study of war

at the war colleges

Rise of

deterrence &

the efficient DoD

Korea seen as

an aberration

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The onset of the Cold War

Assumed credibility of computers

Prestige of Operations Research

Reaction against the management mindset �of Vietnam

Why was Wargaming Reborn?

The obsolescence of war had been greatly

exaggerated

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Wargaming MVPs?

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Wargaming Champions

Dr. Thomas Schelling

Early RAND wargamer
Nuclear theory
Pol/Mil (3^rd Gen WG)
A founder of mod Kennedy�school
2005 Nobel Prize in �Economics

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Wargaming Champions

Col Macedonia, USA

Brought Wargaming back�to the War College
One of the first to reach out�to commercial wargaming
Innovative tools

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Wargaming Champions

Col Richard “Moody”�Suter, USAF

Co founder Aggressors
Father of Red Flag
Initiated Checkmate
Warrior Prep Center

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Wargaming Champions

Bud Hay, US Navy

NWC WG Dep
Global

First “Title 10” wargame
First “deep” wargame
Enormously influential

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Wargaming Champions

Mark Herman

S&T
Victory Games
Defense Contractor
Senior Partner BAH
Gulf Strike

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The Rise of Commercial Wargaming

More Accessible Wargames

- 1950s Charles Roberts

- 1960s Eric Dott & Avalon Hill

- 1970s James Dunnigan & the S&T Staff +

- 1980s Chris Crawford & Gary Grigsby

- 1990s 25 Billion dollar global industry

- 2000s Computer Gaming passes Hollywood

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The Rise of Commercial Wargaming

More Citizens Playing Wargames

- 1950s Thousands

- 1960s Tens of Thousands

- 1970s Hundreds of Thousands

- 1980s Millions

- 1990s Tens of Millions

- 2000s Billions

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Wargaming Champions

Andrew Marshal

OSD/ONA 1973 – 2015
All method analysis
Reached out to �commercial wargaming

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Wargaming Champions

Robert Work

Deputy Sec of Defense
The Memos
4 Star Summits
Repository

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Wargaming’s Top Banana

Dr. Peter P. Perla

Wrote THE Book
Led Center For Naval�Analysis Wargaming �for Decades
Integration of wargaming�with analysis

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Becoming Tomorrow’s MVPs

Connections US
Connections UK
Connections OZ (Australia)
Connections Netherlands
Connections North (Canada)
Connections/SGC France

Connections US/Global, 10-14 August 20

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To Learn More

On Wargaming, Matt Caffrey, 2019
The Art of Wargaming, Peter Perla, 1990

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Questions?

Comments?

Discussion?

Material for the 2^nd Edition

matthewbcaffreyjr@gmail.com