Methodology
On behalf of Issue One and Worthy Strategy Group, Change Research conducted a poll of 1,600 likely voters nationwide from September 17-19, 2024.
Respondents were recruited via targeted online ads using our Dynamic Online Sampling, which establishes and continuously rebalances advertising targets across region, age, gender, race, and partisanship, in order to deliver a representative sample.
Post stratification was done on gender, age, race, education, region, and 2020 vote.
The modeled margin of error is +/- 2.7%.
52% Women
46% Men
22% 18-34
23% 35-49
26% 50-64
28% 65+
45% Democrat
46% Republican
10% Independent
69% White
11% Black
11% Hispanic
5% AAPI
4% Other
Sample Overview
17% High-School or Less
29% Some College/No Degree
15% Associate’s Degree
24% Bachelor’s Degree
16% Graduate Degree
Key Findings
| 1. Election workers are regarded favorably, and ~ 1 in 3 likely voters feel neutrally about them. Overall, very few rate them unfavorably. | | 2. 63% of Republicans believe election fraud is a significant problem. The plurality (36%) of Independents and overwhelming majority of Democrats (72%) believe there is little or no election fraud in this country. |
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| 3. Likely voters who think there is significant election fraud in this country are, on average, slightly older, slightly more white, less educated, and overwhelmingly Republican. | | 4. When voters who could not commit to trusting the outcome of the election were asked what might instill more confidence, the most common answers are voter ID requirements, returning to former processes such as no mail-in voting and paper ballots, and equal monitoring from both parties. |
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| 5. Most voters trust that votes will be counted fairly in their city, town, and state. Trust declines most when asked about the country overall, and major cities in swing states. | | 6. Mail-in voting and voter ID/eligibility elicit more suspicion from voters than Election Day voting procedures, which they have more confidence in. |
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State of the Race
Favorability
Election workers are regarded favorably, and ~ 1 in 3 likely voters feel neutrally about them. Overall, very few rate them unfavorably.
Favorability
Election administrators are regarded a bit less favorably.
Horserace
In the national popular vote, Harris leads among women, young voters, and voters of color.
Perceptions of Election Officials
TOTAL AGREE | TOTAL DISAGREE |
72 90 56 57 | 19 5 28 30 |
Only 12% of Republicans strongly agree with this statement.
Perceptions of Fraud
63% of Republicans believe election fraud is a significant problem.
The plurality (36%) of Independents and overwhelming majority of Democrats (72%) believe there is little or no election fraud in this country.
Fraud Believers
| LITTLE/NO FRAUD | CONCERNED, BUT UNSURE | SIGNIFICANT FRAUD |
GENDER | 50% women, 47% men | 54% women, 44% men | 52% women, 47% men |
AGE | 52% 50+ | 49% 50+ | 62% 50+ |
RACE | 69% white | 65% white | 77% white |
PARTY | 86% Dem | 57% GOP, 32% Dem | 85% GOP |
VOTE HISTORY | 89% Biden 2020 voters | 52% Trump 2020 voters 34% Biden 2020 voters | 84% Trump 2020 voters |
EDU | 53% college-educated | 37% college-educated | 29% college educated |
2024 RACES | 95% voting for Harris | 59% voting for Trump 31% voting for Harris | 90% voting for Trump |
Likely voters who think there is significant election fraud in this country are, on average, slightly older, slightly more white, less educated, and overwhelmingly Republican.
Personal Responsibility
Overall, likely voters are split on this question: 54% feel some degree of personal responsibility, 46% do not. This question does not split along party lines, suggesting this may have to do with how people interpret the question – is this part of doing civic duty and being an honest voter, or is this about monitoring how other voters behave, and possibly taking action to safeguard the election as a result?
Trust in ‘24 Election Outcome
TOTAL TRUST | TOTAL DISTRUST |
64 89 57 41 | 21 5 26 37 |
75% of likely voters say they will trust the outcome of this year’s election, regardless of the outcome.
Only 41% of Republicans will trust the outcome, no matter who wins, compared to 57% of Independents and 89% of Democrats.
Treat as Fair & Accurate, or Blame Fraud?
Among those who do not say they will “completely trust” the outcome of this year’s election, no matter who wins, most say they will suspect election fraud if their candidate loses. This is driven by Republicans.
What would give you a greater sense of trust in election officials in the upcoming presidential election? [OPEN-ENDED]
THEMES:
“Everyone votes in person with valid ID no immigrants with green cards. ONLY USA CITIZENS”
–White Republican
“Election Day/In Person Voting Only with paper ballots”
–White Republican
“If the Republicans would quit trying to game the certification of the vote by sending in fake teams of electors or sending the final vote to the House.”
–White Democrat
**Driven by Democrats
“If the workers were watched over while counting the ballots, have democrats & republicans at the polling booth & where all votes are counted work side by side to ensure there is ABSOLUTELY NO CHEATING!!!! The last election was a BIG TOTAL MESS!!”
– White Republican
Election Officials Descriptors
TOTAL WELL | TOTAL NOT WELL |
81 81 79 76 75 74 69 68 43 | 19 19 21 24 25 26 31 32 57 |
Most likely voters endorse each of these descriptors, with the exception of “nerds” applying well to people who serve as election officials.
Confidence in Vote Counting By Area
TOTAL CONFIDENT | TOTAL NOT CONFIDENT |
83 72 67 59 54 | 15 25 30 38 43 |
Most voters trust that votes will be counted fairly in their city, town, and state.
Trust declines most when asked about the country overall, and major cities in swing states.
Legitimate Winner in 2020
TOTAL CONFIDENT | TOTAL NOT CONFIDENT |
56 97 57 15 | 41 2 31 82 |
56% of likely voters are confident that Joe Biden won the 2020 election.
This includes 97% of Democrats, 57% of Independents, but only 15% of Republicans.
A majority of Republicans (54%) are “not confident at all” that Biden won the 2020 election.
Confidence in Election Process
TOTAL CONFIDENT | TOTAL NOT CONFIDENT |
72 67 66 62 62 61 60 60 58 58 56 54 53 | 25 29 31 34 35 37 37 37 39 40 42 43 44 |
Confidence in Election Process
Mail-in voting, and voter ID/eligibility elicit more suspicion from voters than Election Day voting procedures, which they have more confidence in.
Confidence in Election Process
TOTAL CONFIDENT | TOTAL NOT CONFIDENT |
52 43 39 34 33 31 30 30 26 24 20 19 19 | 45 52 58 63 65 66 67 68 71 74 79 79 79 |
SPOTLIGHT: REPUBLICAN VOTERS
Republicans report low confidence in almost every aspect we tested.