WAR ON IRAN�Zoltán Grossman, Geography & Indigenous Studies, The Evergreen State College
Iran more pivotal than Iraq�
Iraq Iran
Sq. km. 437k 1,648k
Pop. mil. 42 88
GDP $bil. 572 1,442
Terrain Flat Mts.
Regional War, 1940s-2020s
1. Israeli occupation of Palestine
2. Oil economy dominated by U.S./West
3. Autocracy vs. people
4. Religious and ethnic nationalism
5. U.S. military bases / sphere of influence
Occupation of Palestine
Originally envisioned
“Eretz [Greater] Israel”
Oil economy
10% of world reserves
(2nd to Saudi Arabia);
most going to Asia, Europe
80% of Iran’s oil in SW, in
Arab region of Khuzestan
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Pipeline�Politics��In a new “Great Game, ” Caspian Basin oil & gas routes contested by:��Turkey (U.S.)�� Afghanistan /�Pakistan (U.S.) ��Russia ��Iran�(most direct)���
Resistance to autocracy
1906 Revolution for constitution, parliament to limit Qajar Dynasty
1951-53 Mossadegh nationalist movement nationalizes oil industry
1978-79 Iranian Revolution ousts Shah Pahlavi
2008-09 Green Movement against rigged election �
2018-20 Protests, strikes against economic conditions, fuel prices
2022-23 Woman, Life, Freedom protests after Mahsa Amini death
2026 Major economic protests meets massive crackdown
Shi’a and Sunni regions�Shi’as in dark green, Sunni in light green.
Shi’a and Sunni regions��
Iran backs
Hezbollah
(Lebanon),
Houthis
(Yemen),
Hamas [Sunni]
(Palestine).
Aligned interests,
not “proxies.”
Political map
Ethnic map
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Baluchis
Arabs
Azeris
Kurds
Persians
Persians
Luris
Luris
Bakhtiaris
Turkmen
Qashqai
Persians
Rich mixture of ethnicities
Kurds in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey
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Ethnic�Break-Up?
U.S., Israel interested in
backing ethnic separatists
(Azeris, Kurds NW,
Arabs SW, Baluchis SE)
Repression of Arabs in
oil-rich Khuzestan,
separatist bombings
“Balkanization” would
unleash horrific wars
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Ralph Peters
“We're changing the face of the Middle East, and now I say we're changing the face of the world.”
--Benjamin Netanyahu, 2025
Bases for wars, or wars for bases?
1991
2. Yugoslav Wars,
1995-99
3. Afghan War,
2001-21
4. Iraq War,
2003-11
“Their function may be more
political than military. They
send a message to everyone.”
--Deputy Defense Secretary
Paul Wolfowitz, NYT 2002
U.S.S. Israel
Persian/Iranian Empires
Crossroads of empires, conquerers, religions, ethnicities
Islamic control in 637-651
Rule by succession of Shah (king) dynasties
Anglo-Russian “Great Game” �spheres of influence, 1907
Russian Empire
British
India
Ottoman
Empire
Kuwait
Afgh.
First Mideast
oil field:
Anglo-
Persian Oil
Company in
Arabistan SW,
1908
(now B.P.)
Arabistan
Reza Shah, 1921
Reza Shah emphasizes pre-Islamic
imperial glories, Persian ethnic core
Nationalist but also modernizer,
Pahlavi dynasty offended clerics
Retakes control of Arabistan,
renames Khuzestan, 1925
Renames Persia as Iran, 1935
Mossadegh elected, 1951
Premier Mohammed
Mossadegh, Parliament
nationalizes British
oil holdings, 1952
U.S. portrays
nationalist leader
as a Communist
British Empire collapses;
U.S. inherits Persian
Gulf influence
CIA coup, 1953
CIA agent Kermit Roosevelt
directs military coup, installs Shah
as supreme leader in Operation Ajax
Mossadegh ouster was turning point
U.S. joins British in control of oil
Shah Reza Pahlavi
West sees as bulwark vs. Communism,
Arab nationalism, (later)
Islamist fundamentalism
Emphasized glorious past,
huge palaces, kleptocracy.
U.S. nuclear bombers
stationed after Iraqis
ousted monarchy, 1958
U.S. sold nuclear technology
to Shah, who wanted a Bomb
Shah under fire, 1970s
Persian Gulf passes from British to U.S. domination
Iran-Iraq peace treaty--U.S. sells out Kurdish rebels
SAVAK secret police repression
Religious turn against
him for secularism, ties
to Israel, lavish coronation
Increasing street protests,
rebel attacks
Revolution begins, 1978
Strikes by leftist Arab oil workers in Khuzestan
Tehran protesters massacred
Call for return of Ayatollah Khomeini from
exile in France (had also been in Iraq)
Shah overthrown, 1979
Shah driven into exile, seeks medical
treatment in U.S., Panama
Ayatollah Khomeini
returns as a
unifying figure
for revolution
Revolutionary pluralism
Bani Sadr’s “negative equilibrium” vs. superpowers
Leftists, ethnic minorities had voice
Revolution against Western cultural imperialism;
Secular women wear veil as protest vs. U.S.
Hostage crisis, 1979-81
Students take embassy “spy den,” demand Shah’s return
Carter’s helicopter/bombing raid fails to free hostages;
released the moment Reagan is inaugurated
Turning point: Crisis strengthened Iran & U.S. hardliners;
demonized Muslims to substitute for anti-Communism
Islamic Republic
Khomeini crushes pluralism,
consolidates control, using U.S &
Iraqi threats as pretext
Executes leftists, Kurds, Azeris, and
Iraq-backed People’s Mujahedin of Iran
Women’s rights restricted
by religious militia
Difficult for 1980s U.S. peace
movement: no “good guys,”
no Christian or leftist leadership
Carter Doctrine
“Carter Doctrine” formalizes U.S. access to oil fields;
threatens nuclear attack if Soviets invade Iran
Start of “energy war,” Central Command, draft registration,
psychological conditioning of Americans for Mideast war
“American vital interests in the Central Region are long-standing. With over 65% of the world’s oil reserves located in the Gulf states of the region— from which the United States imports nearly 20% of its needs; Western Europe 43%; and Japan, 68%--the international community must have free and unfettered access to the region’s resources.”
--General J. H. Binford Peay III,
Central Command (1997)
Cited in Blood and Oil by Michael Klare
(Metropolitan Books, 2004)
U.S. Central Command
�
Iraq seized Khuzestan oil fields
after Iranian Revolution, backed
secessionist Arab rebels
(who also occupied London embassy)
Fought to bloody stalemate:
Use of trenches, human wave
tactics, chemical weapons.
Iraqi Shi’as fought for Iraq;
Iranian Arabs fought for Iran
Iran-Iraq War,
1980-88
Iranians
Iraqis
�
U.S. supported Iraq with
intelligence, naval escorts
Reagan also later supplied
Hawk missiles to Iran in
“Iran-Contra Scandal”
(to illegally raise funds to
fight Sandinista Nicaragua)
Kissinger: “bleed both sides”
Iran-Iraq War,
1980-88
�
Iran-Iraq War,
1980-88
Iranians endured
eight years of war
U.S. naval war �vs. Iran, 1987-88
U.S. Navy escorts reflagged
Iraqi (Kuwaiti) oil tankers
under Iranian missile threat
U.S. battles with Iranian gunboats;
attacks oil platforms
“Accidentally” shot down
Iranian civilian jetliner
Fear of Strait of Hormuz closure;
island disputes with Gulf states
Strait of Hormuz
World’s most pivotal chokepoint
for 20% of all oil/gas (85% to Asia)
Lynchpins of Iranian defense strategy:
retaliating against U.S. bases (now 40,000 troops),
and attacking ships in Strait off Musandam Peninsula (Oman)
U.S. aircraft carriers
often deployed to
Persian Gulf in
regional crises
U.S. & Iranian strategies in Iraq
Military strategy: U.S. invaded Iraq, lost 1000s of soldiers,
stuck in unpopular quagmire, saw its influence
(and its favored exile candidates) rejected by Iraqis.
Political strategy: In 2003, Iran watched its 2nd-greatest
enemy eliminate its 1st enemy, advised its Iraqi allies to
play along so their candidates could run in elections,
then saw Shi’a parties come to power—
all without firing a shot.
“Search for Enemies”�Ex-CIA official John Stockwell analysis:�U.S. government creates Third World enemies�to distract attention from domestic problems
The regimes of most “demonized”
leaders have stayed in power longer
than any others. They can blame U.S.
for internal economic problems & dissent.
Castro (Cuba)
Ho (N. Vietnam)
Ayatollahs (Iran)
Qaddafi (Libya)
Noriega (Panama)
Saddam (Iraq)
Kims (N. Korea)
Assads (Syria)
Nuclear program
Israel has had nuclear
weapons since 1970s;
Pakistan since 1998
All Iranian presidents say nuclear
technology only for energy
Ayatollah Ali Khameini issued
fatwa vs. nuclear weapons, 2005
U.S., Israel, EU do not believe Iran;
Tensions raise oil prices (good for Iran)
Uranium Enrichment
Iran successfully enriches uranium to
3.5% (energy-grade), 2006
International Atomic Energy Commission (IAEA) “has not seen indications of diversion of nuclear material to nuclear weapons,” (2006)
Israelis always claim Iran is a “few
weeks” away from a bomb.
(3.5% for energy;
90%+ for weapons-grade)
Iran voluntarily suspends
enrichment, 2004
Nuclear deal, 2015-18
Reached Nuclear Deal with US. EU, Russia to curb
uranium enrichment, 2015. Trump reneged on deal, 2018,
but also resisted bombing sites at the time.
National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) asserts Iran ended
A-bomb program in 2003; Gabbard later restated.
Against imperialism and repression
Perfectly consistent to oppose U.S. attacks on Iran, support anti-imperial aims of 1979 Iranian Revolution, and support women and ethnic-religious minorities in Iran today.
Most Iranians agree Iran should be independent and Palestine should be free.
Opposition to Israel one thing that all political factions (but monarchists) agree
Freeing Palestine and lifting U.S. sanctions would help the dissidents, as the regime would become less legitimate, less able to use foreign threat to crackdown at home.
Women,
Life,
Freedom
Cycles of repression, reform
Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989–1997):
pragmatic conservativism
Mohammad Khatami (1997–2005):
reformer
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005–2013):
hardline conservatism; crackdown
Hassan Rouhani (2013–2021):
pragmatism; nuclear deal
Ebrahim Raisi (2021–2024):
conservative crackdown; died in crash
Masoud Pezeshkian (2024–present):
Azeri minority reformer; open to nuclear deal
.
Reformer in power
Iranian and U.S. hardliners feed off each other, need each other for legitimacy.
New reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian: Azeri minority, critic of violent repression of ethnic minorities, Guardian Patrols repression of women.
Like Khatami and Rouhani, wanted détente with West, nuclear deal with U.S. (not reinstated by Biden).
Détente with Saudi Arabia, 2023; less
tension with Gulf states over islands
Recent attacks on Iran
Jan. 2020 U.S. drone killing Revolutionary Guard Commander Qassem Soleimani; Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Iraq
April 2024 Israeli attack on Iranian consulate in Syria; Iran missile/drones attack on Israel, shot down by US-UK
July 2024 Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Tehran, Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. Limited missile retaliation.
Iran exercised restraint in counterattacks;
not wanting to provoke regional war; weakened by allies’ losses in Syria, Lebanon
U.S. regional�attacks, 2025
Air strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen
unsuccessful
Air strikes on pro-Iran militias in Iraq and Syria
Naval task force
off Lebanon vs.
Hezbollah
12-Day War by U.S.
& Israel to “obliterate” nuclear
sites
U.S. regional�attacks, 2025
Radioactive contamination fears
Regime change strategy
Netanyahu enlarging to a five-front war (Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran), dragging U.S. into “regime change.”
He favors Shah’s son Crown Prince
Reza Pahlavi.
Divert from Gaza, to gain more public support in Israel and U.S., scuttle Iran nuclear deal, allow long-sought occupation of southern Lebanon
U.S. public opinion critical to end war.
Where U.S. role started in 1953 can be where it finally meets effective resistance.
Theocracy and Monarchy
2024 poll: At least 70% of Iranians oppose Islamic Republic, but only 21% support reinstating Shah (King).
Theocracy and Monarchy
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U.S.-Iran talks in Oman
near agreement
Negotiations could have been cover for war
Israel may have wanted to
sabotage agreement
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U.S. missile attack on girls’ school in Minab, next to IRGC base
Atrocities
Deaths:
Iran 3,600+
Lebanon 2,000+
Gulf states 30
Israel 30
U.S. 13
Israel bombs Rafie Nia Synagogue in Tehran
New U.S. missile hits sports hall in Lamerd
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Iranian retaliation
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Iranian retaliation
Nations with U.S. bases
Strait of Hormuz�blockade
Energy crisis deeper than 1973 Arab oil embargo
“I think that either they surrender or will be left with sticks and stones.”
—Netanyahu foreign policy adviser Ophir Falk (March 31 on NPR)
“We're going to bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong."
—President Trump (April 1 address to nation)
“A civilization will end.”
Serbians gather on
bridges during
NATO bombing,
1999
Trump riffing on
Nixon/Kissinger
“madman theory,”
1969
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Israel implements
long–desired conquest
of southern Lebanon.
Will Trump “get on
the phone” with Israel,
as Eisenhower & Reagan did??
Ceasefire?
Imperial overreach
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U.S.
wars
in
region
begin
(and
end?)
with
Iran
Dr. Zoltán Grossman�Member of the Faculty�(Geography & Indigenous Studies)�The Evergreen State College�Lab 1, 2700 Evergreen Pkwy. NW�Olympia, WA 98505 USA���E-mail: grossmaz@evergreen.edu�Website: https://sites.evergreen.edu/zoltan ���