PSAR VIP

Session #15

01-31-2022

Contents

1. Welcome to everyone!
2. HTF BTC Analysis
3. Ninja: Glassnode HTF Analysis
4. AlphaEdge: Trading Strategy Presentation
5. CEO: DCA Manual Checklist: What To Do If You Have Bags
6. Todd: Trading Goals and Objections
7. Todd: HTF Trend Signals
8. Todd: TVAlertsManager Automation
9. Q & A

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HTF BTC Analysis

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• Bounced off the bottom of my old target from Nov 15th
• Hit the lower target perfectly
• Went down to the Summer 2021 Range POC + WEEKLY confluence
• This previous range is clearly VERY important
• Made this whole move up and didn’t get anywhere
• Look at the 12H stoch, ready to dump
• Daily keeps hitting the same resistance at the neutral control territory
• Relief rally?
• Weekly is so beaten down, lowest since 2019 bear market low
• Need some kind of relief in the next month or so

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HTF BTC Analysis

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What to expect?

• Hit the trend line in the next few days (latest Feb 7th) and then drop to next support
• Expect a pump to fake everyone out
• New downside target?
• SFP of the 2021 SUMMER LOW
• NEW target 28-30K
• Lines up with the Trend line at March 1st
• If we lose 28K something is very wrong: Bitcoin always makes a higher low every year
• Until then? EXPECT MORE RANGING

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AlphaEdge Presentation

CEO: DCA Manual Checklist

• Have all the SOs been used up?
• If not on 4^th or 5^th SO (7.5-15.5%), let the automated DCA do its work
• If beyond 4^th or 5^th SO, what is the next major support region?
• Are we in a major downtrend?
• 1H, 4H, 1D trend all down?
• Look at 12h, and Daily trend, how long?
• If major downtrend - Consider cutting losses or reduce position size ASAP before further drop
• Consider switching longs to short (or vice versa) if overall trend has flipped to recoup losses
• NOTE: Further downside must have a high probability to use this option
• If not a major downtrend, look for laddered entries at key support
• Start small, increase position size to lowest support
• LEAVE ENOUGH CAPITAL FOR FURTHER DOWNSIDE
• Consider exposure, will you be liquidated if price continues down?
• Consider reducing position size
• Wait for retracement to reduce losses
• Consider doing the “Bernie”
• (buy the bottom of the range, sell at the top of the range… repeat to bring down entry)

TODD: Trader’s Goals and Objections

It should be very important to outline goals for your total portfolio and establish objections to each goal.

An objection is an obstacle or issue that will hold you back and prevent you from hitting your goal.

1. Start trading with $500 and invest heavily into knowledge versus increasing trading capital.
• OBJ: I know what I am doing, I can start with $10K and will do fine. Reality is most traders will burn accounts until they work on improving their knowledge of items such as T.A, risk management, trend analysis, risk:reward, etc.
2. ROI the initial capital multiple times ($1500+ profits off $500). Do this until your Futures accounts are <10% of total capital. Real world example: $500 Futures, 5K in spot. Once you have this completed you can go on to the next step.
• OBJ: Greed. I can simply watch my accounts compound everyday, there will be no losses, and on days such as May 19 all funds are lost.
3. Write and implement trading plans for all market conditions (bull, bear, chop) and implement individual plans for each account.
• OBJ: I don’t need a trading plan for each condition, I can understand trend by myself and need no plan. I will adjust as I see fit. Without a plan most traders will be left behind, reactive instead of proactive.
4. Write and implement maximum drawdown, profit and loss statistics for each account. For example what drawdown percent (% unrealized PNL) will you allow on your accounts. What profit and loss values will you allow for trades?
• OBJ: I don’t need a plan, I can cut trades by myself and need no plan. I will adjust as I see fit. Without a plan, profits get lost and losses grow bigger over time.
5. Scale as quickly as possible to 100K+ in Spot and 5-10K Futures. 5K Futures gives enough daily profit that you can live off; however should it liquidate it is only <5% of total portfolio.
• OBJ: I can run more in futures and not lose it all. I have been trading well for a long time and I can handle anything (complacency). The more in futures = more risk to losing it all.
6. Rinse and repeat, each next goal involves another 100K to the Spot accounts.
• OBJ: Same as above, however adding in market slippage and volume issues across pairs to the mix.

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TODD: HTF TREND SIGNALS

HTF Trend Signals are very easy to create, and very helpful. Here is EXACTLY how to create:

• Set chart timeframe and HTF to same timeframe. (ex: 1hr/60, 4hr/240)
• Set RSI Buy Max to 100, and Sell Min to 0 to avoid filtering signals via RSI.
• Trend verification optional, if used; trend verification timeframe=chart timeframe.
• Turn DIVS off.

Shared chart link: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/5yqUYgpa/

HTF Trend Signals were implemented after the may 19 2021 dump and should be followed at all times.

A few notes:

As timeframe length increases, so does signal strength. Example: 1hr long < 4hr long < 1D Long

Multiple timeframes in agreeance should NOT be ignored. Example 1hr, 4hr, 1D all long, do not trade short

As timeframe length increases, reaction to trend change decreases. Example 69k top, daily signals will be delayed and later than the 1hr/4hr.

HTF TREND SIGNALS should be used to control bots. In the instances where they do not catch every top a solid DCA/risk-reward strategy will pay immensely. Going forward we will be using the 15M/1HR/4HR/1D.

TODD: HTF TREND ANALYSIS

• 15M PSAR alerts are not used on the Discord however can be powerful when combined with additional timeframes as they are quick and reactive to trend change. The 15m will help out in chop periods compared to the 1H, which will lag in chop/consolidation periods.
• The 15m flips short 20 Jan 14:15

TODD: HTF TREND ANALYSIS

• 1HR PSAR alerts have been very accurate for trend change. Once a trend reversal has been confirmed generally speaking firing bots on/off using the 1HR has worked well however can lead to delays in chop periods.
• The 1hr flips short 20 Jan 15:00

TODD: HTF TREND ANALYSIS

• 4HR PSAR alerts are great for confirming trend. I would not use them singularly to trade, but in conjunction with 15M+1H. The 4hr will be delayed, as shown below.
• The 4hr flips short 17 Jan 09:00; however notice the signal lag longs Jan 12-16.

TODD: HTF TREND ANALYSIS

• 1D PSAR alerts are a final warning to trend change. They are delayed and are too late to be used in regards to controlling bots. These should be used and coupled with technical analysis to make financial decisions.
• The 1D flips short 22 Nov 21 @ 56k; and has remained short since.

TODD: HTF TREND ANALYSIS

• Combining trend alerts is a very powerful thing. I am of the opinion we should follow @Lemmod’s views with the 15M/1H/4H to more “leading” than simply using 1hr/4hr/1d.
• PSAR can still use 1M chart + 5M HTF however it can be adjusted using 15M/1H/4H for direction.

TODD: TVAlertsManager Automation

• Automation is done and tested out, see videos in #tvalertsmanager if you missed them.
• Webhook address: https://us-central1-tv-alerts-mass-edit-tool.cloudfunctions.net/tvamwebhook
• Message: {"accountId": "STP_Todd", "name": "long"} - note “name” is parsed from webhook name.
• Webhook name can be used to identify trend, or which set of alerts to load.
• User will have choice to either pause or delete old alerts (pausing may be more efficient, as pause/unpause is very quick verse creating deleting and creating new alerts)
• Signal validity check will ensure signals past XX minutes will not be loaded, if there are errors.
• “Upload alerts without confirmation” button enables complete automation of TV alerts (hands free).
• Refresh page button added as a request to ensure TV is refreshed before alerts are touched.

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TODD: TVAlertsManager Automation

FUNCTION RECAP:

1. Extension is loaded onto a computer/server that is online 24/7. Tradingview chart is left open, with webhooks ON enabled on the extension.
2. User labels webhook names #1-#6, and the sheet name that each webhook loads alerts off.�Example below using SSB settings:������
3. User pushes trend alerts to the extension via webhook (alerts using notification on HTF trend change ONLY)
4. Extension monitors and adjusts Tradingview alerts based on alerts in sheet. User can choose to either pause or delete previous alerts.

REAL WORLD EXAMPLE shown above and as well on PSAR Spreadsheet under Start/Stop Conditions.

RESULT: Mitigation of losses and improvement of profits, automated.

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Q & A

• Feel free to comment or ask any questions on things you may need some advice on.
• To save on time we would like to keep the Q&A to a maximum of 2 Questions per user.
• Would like to open the floor up to any users to share some profits in #profit-gains!

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