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Question for Rumination

  • Madden and Ramanathan Predicted in 1980 that warming would be discernable in 2000.
  • What would you do to evaluate the theory and predictions of global warming?
    • Surface of planet will warm
    • Sea level will rise
    • Weather will change
  • Think about
      • Measurements
      • Feedbacks
      • Correlative behavior
      • Impacts

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Observations: An Introduction

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Observations: What do we measure?

  • Foundation of scientific method
    • What does phenomenon mean?
  • What do we measure?
    • Temperature
    • Precipitation
    • Carbon dioxide
    • Sun
    • That which allows us to calculate budgets
      • To diagnose, analyze, understand
      • To predict

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“How” do we measure climate?

  • Strategy

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  • “Technology”

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  • Difference between “weather” and “climate” observations?

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Surface Air Temperature

  • Why do we rely so much on this as a measure of climate?

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  • What are the characteristics of a temperature measurement compared to a precipitation measurement?

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Note: There is

consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C)

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Also, it’s still going up in 2100!

Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non-controversial.

This represents the uncertainties in the observations

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Proxy measures

  • Glaciers
  • Tree rings
  • Pollen
  • Ice cores
    • contain tiny bubbles of ancient air — not really a proxy, but a direct measure
  • Corals
  • Many others

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Note: There is

consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C)

​

Also, it’s still going up in 2100!

Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non-controversial.

This represents the uncertainties in the observations

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Central England Temperature

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Central England Temperatures

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