BALTIC AVIATION MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
Mantas Vrubliauskas
VP Network Development
Tartu 17.11.2023
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BALTIC AVIATION: TRENDS, CHALLENGES, AND RECOVERY AHEAD
We expect a full recovery in passenger traffic in 2024. Booking patterns gradually returned to normal over the last 1.5 years. Ticket prices have increased due to lack of capacity and pent-up demand.
Russia’s war in Ukraine caused traffic loss to the East (incl. transfer traffic in Riga), and reduced incoming demand due to perceived danger. Brexit has impacted UK traffic.
Air connectivity is a challenge, especially in Tallinn, Vilnius, and regional airports. PSOs and risk-sharing schemes are being developed. LCCs focus more on leisure than VFR; increased airport charges caused a reduction in LCC capacity.
Baltics are punching above their weight in the ACMI market with over 200 aircraft in the fleet.
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2023 TRAFFIC FORECASTED TO REACH 90% OF 2019 LEVEL
2020 network plan
Regional airports include Kaunas (KUN), Palanga (PLQ), Liepaja (LPX), Tartu (TAY), Kuressaare (URE), Kärdla (KDL), Pärnu (PRN).
2023 (F): Jan-Oct actual flown + extrapolation for RIX, TLL, VNO. Assuming that regional airports grow at the same rate as capital airports in each country.
LITHUANIA HAS REACHED 92% RECOVERY�
2020 network plan
Source: Sabre GDD data (Jan-Sep 2023)
Source: Lithuanian airports statistics. 2023 (F): Jan-Oct actual flown + extrapolation
ESTONIA HAS REACHED 91% RECOVERY�
Source: Estonian airports statistics. 2023 (F): Jan-Oct actual flown + extrapolation
Source: Tallinn airport statistics Jan-Sep 2023
LATVIA HAS REACHED 88% RECOVERY�
Source: Riga/Liepaja airport statistics. 2023 (F): Jan-Oct actual flown + extrapolation
Source: Riga airport statistics Jan-Sep 2023
IATA FORECAST: FULL RECOVERY IN 2024�LT TO GROW BY 6%, LV 5%, EE 4% ANNUALLY
2020 network plan
Source: IATA passenger forecast (Baseline scenario), date: 26.09.2023
IATA FORECAST: BALTICS TO GROW IN LINE WITH EUROPE
2020 network plan
Source: IATA passenger forecast (Baseline scenario), date: 26.09.2023
BALTIC TRAFFIC BY COUNTRY
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SURPASSING 2019: BALKANS & SOUTHERN EUROPE
STILL BELOW 2019: WESTERN EUROPE & NORDICS
All traffic to/from/within Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Only European destinations are included >5,000 pax annually. Source: Sabre GDD (Jan-Sep2019 vs Jan-Sep2023)
Traffic to/from | 2019 | 2023 | Index to 2019 |
Portugal | 57,300 | 104,969 | 1.83 |
Croatia | 38,509 | 63,687 | 1.65 |
Serbia | 11,154 | 17,936 | 1.61 |
Poland | 165,345 | 262,769 | 1.59 |
Austria | 110,393 | 173,652 | 1.57 |
Romania | 28,904 | 40,763 | 1.41 |
Spain | 519,211 | 656,209 | 1.26 |
Armenia | 9,791 | 12,345 | 1.26 |
Latvia | 83,700 | 95,832 | 1.14 |
Hungary | 34,383 | 39,062 | 1.14 |
Moldova | 8,459 | 9,506 | 1.12 |
Azerbaijan | 16,708 | 18,604 | 1.11 |
Italy | 612,004 | 680,404 | 1.11 |
France | 300,282 | 327,375 | 1.09 |
Sweden | 384,672 | 408,269 | 1.06 |
Estonia | 144,913 | 146,854 | 1.01 |
Czech Republic | 83,369 | 83,243 | 1.00 |
Traffic to/from | 2019 | 2023 | Index to 2019 |
Georgia | 104,949 | 102,001 | 0.97 |
Denmark | 343,872 | 332,841 | 0.97 |
Greece | 196,797 | 181,790 | 0.92 |
Lithuania | 104,974 | 95,546 | 0.91 |
Iceland | 57,532 | 52,164 | 0.91 |
Ireland | 271,473 | 240,914 | 0.89 |
Norway | 692,307 | 606,750 | 0.88 |
Cyprus | 115,172 | 100,190 | 0.87 |
Switzerland | 127,894 | 109,388 | 0.86 |
Malta | 73,422 | 61,973 | 0.84 |
Belgium | 187,611 | 151,259 | 0.81 |
Netherlands | 267,629 | 214,248 | 0.80 |
Germany | 1,133,498 | 893,244 | 0.79 |
United Kingdom | 1,732,902 | 1,342,697 | 0.77 |
Finland | 356,926 | 247,264 | 0.69 |
Turkey | 527,073 | 358,399 | 0.68 |
Bulgaria | 89,105 | 56,497 | 0.63 |
Russia | 442,302 | 4,183 | 0.01 |
Belarus | 35,943 | 9 | 0.00 |
Ukraine | 379,645 | 7 | 0.00 |
BALTIC TRAFFIC BY REGION
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Traffic to/from | 2019 | 2023 | Index |
Gulf | 40,028 | 66,944 | 167% |
North Africa | 138,672 | 188,724 | 136% |
South America | 15,641 | 21,247 | 136% |
North America | 222,875 | 262,849 | 118% |
Western Europe | 7,421,553 | 6,812,039 | 92% |
Southern Africa | 7,208 | 6,564 | 91% |
Australia | 13,279 | 11,318 | 85% |
Caribbean | 10,928 | 9,177 | 84% |
Asia Sub-Continent | 44,983 | 36,936 | 82% |
Middle East | 195,255 | 153,233 | 78% |
Southeast Asia | 96,378 | 75,065 | 78% |
Eastern Europe | 2,480,333 | 1,565,066 | 63% |
Far East Asia | 85,299 | 41,711 | 49% |
Central Asia | 31,747 | 13,040 | 41% |
Regions with leisure potential: the Americas, the Gulf, North Africa
Regions affected by war (directly/indirectly): Central Asia, Far East Asia and Eastern Europe.
All traffic to/from/within Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Only regions with >5,000 pax annually are included. Source: Sabre GDD (Jan-Sep2019 vs Jan-Sep2023)
2023 AVG TICKET PRICE +15% VS 2022
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Source: Sabre GDD. Average ticket price for tickets from Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia to Europe.
TICKET PRICES HIGHER IN ESTONIA
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Source: Sabre GDD. Average ticket price for tickets from Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia to Europe.
ACMI POWERHOUSE: ~3% OF EUROPE’S FLEET, LESS THAN 1% OF POPULATION
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| | |
64 | 53 | 20 |
| | |
15 | 14 | 12 |
| | |
14 | 11 | |
Fleet size by carrier
AIRBALTIC GROUP 2023 H1 HIGHLIGHTS
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€291.3M REVENUE +52.1% vs PY
1.99M PASSENGERS
+51.7% vs PY
€14.6M
NET INCOME
+ 105.7M vs PY
€56.8M
EBITDAR*
+€50.3M vs PY
* Comparable EBITDAR
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AIRBALTIC EXPECTS TO OPERATE 80 AIRCRAFT BY 2030
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End of the year air fleet
AIRBALTIC NETWORK 2024
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airBaltic will open new base in Gran Canaria, Spain
140 routes from five bases
13 new routes announced from Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Finland
airBaltic continues the development of its base in Tampere, Finland
THANK YOU
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