LOOK UP, LOOK ALL AROUND, READ & LISTEN CRITICALLY, �& ACT

Dr. David R. Muñoz

Renewable Taos, Inc.

Taos Valley Acequia Association

Treasurer, Acequia de Los Lovatos

TRUSTED REFERENCES

• Andrew J. Hoffman, How Culture Shapes the Climate Change Debate, Stanford Briefs, 2015.

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• Frank P. Incropera, Climate Change, A Wicked Problem, Cambridge University Press, 2016.

ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE IS A WICKED PROBLEM

Characterized by having many stakeholders, any attempt at a solution has multiple consequences. Whether a solution is right or wrong is not judged by absolute or objective standards, but rather by stakeholder interests and values.

GREENHOUSE EFFECT

Incropera, DeWitt, Bergman and Lavine, Fundamentals of Heat and Mass Transfer, 6^th Ed. Wiley, 2007.

THE MODELING COMPLICATIONS OF CLOUDS

Ref: Incropera (2016), Figure 2.3.

ADDITIONAL MODELING COMPLICATIONS

Ref: Incropera (2016), Figure 4.4.

WHAT DO WE KNOW?

1. Greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing in our atmosphere.

Scientists are confident that greenhouse gas concentrations have been increasing for the past 2000 years.

Ref: Incropera (2016), Figure 3.1 (a).

WHAT DO WE KNOW?

2. The increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration has resulted in earth’s recent warming.

The science behind the mechanisms of radiative forcing and the greenhouse gas effect are well established.

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Ref: Incropera (2016), Figure 4.2.

WHAT DO WE KNOW?

3. The climate has changed over the past century.

• Sea level has been rising,
• Arctic ice has been receding,
• Prolonged drought leading to loss of forests through record breaking fires.
• Ocean acidification, thermal coral bleaching.
• Feedback mechanisms such as decreasing albedo (due to less arctic snow and ice) allowing more solar absorption, thawing of permafrost exposing peat and promoting methane off-gassing, exacerbating the buildup of greenhouse gases.

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Ref: Incropera (2016), Figure 5.1.

WHAT DO WE KNOW?

4. Humans are at least partially responsible (Climate change is anthropogenic).

Although this response is based largely on scientific judgement, alternative plausible scientific explanations do not exist.

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WHAT IS LARGELY UNKNOWN?

5. What will be the future environmental and social impacts of climate change? What kind of world will our grandchildren face?

These are the scientific questions with the greatest uncertainty and in which debate should take place.

Uncertainties are due to:

1. limited data on the earth’s climate system,
2. imperfect computer modeling and
3. the unpredictability of human response, that could either exacerbate or moderate climate shifts.

ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

• Potential climate change solutions should be presented first as an ethical appeal.
• Ask: Who is it that we are striving to be as a people? What kind of world do we want to leave our children/grandchildren?
• Focus on our capacity to innovate and on activities already underway.
• Focus also on a future that is optimistic and attractive, including security, prosperity and happiness for ourselves, our families, all of mankind and the natural world.

ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS (CONT.)

• Bridge the ideology of left and right.

Seek solutions that bridge hierarchical and individualistic (conservative) as well as the egalitarian and communitarian (liberal).

• Strike a balance between the necessity of regulation and trust/support of the free market.
• Try to uphold, rather than threaten cherished societal institutions that preserve the “American Way of Life”. Regard pro-environmental change as patriotic and consistent with protecting political and economic institutions.

ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS (CONT.)

• Present climate change mitigation as gains produced by action as opposed to losses due to inaction.
• Work to build trust with those we are trying to influence.

ADAPTATION

• Seek ways to make your life more resilient.

Examples:

1. Reduce your consumption of energy, water, food, stuff.

2. Reuse stuff or pass it on to someone who will reuse it.

3. Support the acequias and other local nonprofits.

4. Think of other ways to protect yourself and property in the event of fire, flood or other natural disaster. Work with your neighbors to improve neighborhood resilience.

WE’RE IN THIS TOGETHER�THANK YOU!

Ref: Incropera (2016), Figure 3.1 (b).

Ref: Incropera (2016), Figure 4.6.