1
A quick PSA before we begin
[Also: That was a seriously trippy book so if my voice sounds weird, blame Lewis Carroll.]
2. Religious Disaffiliation in the US
4. Why Do Liminals Stay?
3. Who are LDS Liminals?
Benjamin Knoll
Manager, Survey & Analytics Hub, APQC
Lorres Kwan Jensen, BYU
Christian Anderson, BYU
Stephanie Griswold, CGU
Alex Bass, Mormon Metrics
About the 2022–23 Next Mormons Survey
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1420
Current LDS
178
Former LDS
This is all thanks to you
Donations
Early 2027
Book
About the Next Mormons Survey
The Next Mormons Survey was fielded in 2022 by Qualtrics using a nationally representative online sample and following standard protocols that are approved by the Institutional Review Board guidelines. Qualtrics employed a panel-matching technique to achieve as representative a sample as possible on standard demographic indicators. In 2023 a shorter version of the survey was fielded by Dynata targeting both the national population and some high-LDS counties to increase the IR.
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Over 100 qualitative interviews
freegoogleslidestemplates.com
FGST
2. Religious Change in the US
General Social Survey, 1972–2022
Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), 2013–2024
Pew Research Center, 2007–2024
70%
64%
54%
GSS 2020s:
38% staying
62% leaving
Pew 2020s:
54% staying
46% leaving
The blue line is the church’s own membership records, which show a consistent 2% of the US population.
The orange line represents the declining share of US adults who say on the CES that they are LDS.
1.7% – 1.9%
1.4% – 1.6%
1.1% – 1.3%
1.7% from 1999 to 2003 (averaged)
1.4% from 2019 to 2024 (averaged)
1.7% in 2007 RLS
1.5% in 2003–24 RLS RLS
1.9% from 2013–2018 (averaged)
1.5% from 2019–24 (averaged)
Only 17% of US Latter-day Saints did NOT have an immediate family member who left the church or became inactive.
“Thinking of your immediate family (parents, siblings, spouses, in-laws, and children, if any), about how many of those who were either raised in the church or converted to the church have since either become inactive, left the church, or distanced themselves from the church?”
3. Who are LDS Liminals?
Tithing
Current TR
“Very active”
Some Liminals will stay in that middle space indefinitely. Others are on their way out of the church.
Liminality is . . .
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From the Latin for “threshold”
A place or status in between
A sacred place or time of possibility
A rite of passage or period of change
Seen as dangerous to existing structures
LGBQ+ rates in each group:
Loyalists: 2%
Liminals: 14%
Leavers: 20%
Sexual Orientation
Gallup’s 2025 figure is that
9.3%
of the US identifies as LGBTQ+.
Liminals and Leavers: LGBTQ+ OVERREPRESENTATION
Loyalists: LGBTQ+ UNDERREPRESENTATION
Liminals are the most racially diverse.
Race
| Loyalists | Liminals | Leavers |
White | 91% | 83% | 90% |
Black | 5% | 9% | 1% |
AAPI | 2% | 3% | 3% |
Native American | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Other/mixed race | <1% | 2% | 3% |
Liminals are a bit more likely to be converts (44%) compared to Loyalists (36%).
Convert Status
Loyalists are far more likely to be married to their first spouse (68%!).
Liminals and Leavers are more likely to be single, divorced, or cohabiting.
A quarter of Liminals and Leavers have never married.
Marital Status
Education
Loyalists were more than twice as likely as Liminals to have completed college.
Democrats
Loyalists
Liminals
Leavers
25
50
75
100
19
29
55
Politics
Politically, Liminals look more like Loyalists than like Leavers.
freegoogleslidestemplates.com
FGST
Married to first spouse
White
Heterosexual
Born in the church
College-educated
Republican
4. Why Do Liminals Stay?
b. Community
Loyalists who are 10/10 on remaining: 78%
Liminals who are 10/10 on remaining: 34%
The percentage of Liminals as a share of the NMS sample shrank from 68% in 2016 to 62% in 2022–3.
SURPRISE: Liminals now skew female, and Loyalists male
61% of LDS Liminals chose the top category of “I know God really exists and I have no doubts.”
The GSS 2022 figure is 50% for the US.
A majority of Liminals are certain about Christian teachings (19 to 27 points below Loyalists).
By comparison, only 27% of Leavers were confident in life after death.
Liminals are less certain about specifically LDS teachings (33 to 42 points down from Loyalists).
4 in 5 Loyalists are sure church leaders are God’s prophets
Compared to 2 in 5 Liminals.
A majority are certain about Christian teachings, but less so about LDS ones
Higher rates of worship attendance, prayer, and spiritual experiences than the gen pop
Only when compared to LDS Loyalists do Liminals NOT look very religious
“First and foremost, I am engaged and connected to the Church because its teachings, doctrines, and ordinances are true, regardless of whatever other benefits I might receive.”
OR
“I am engaged and connected to the Church because of the value I receive from my involvement, regardless of whether its teachings, doctrines, and ordinances are true.”
Why are you here?
Liminals and Loyalists value different things about the church.
37
What did you like most about seminary?
Socializing with church friends
Reading the scriptures; learning more about church doctrine & teachings
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“Why don’t you just leave?”
40
THANK
YOU