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SHRI R.K.PARIKH ARTS AND SCIENCE COLLEGE, PETLAD

  • Economics Department
  • Indian Population Senerio
  • FOR B.A. AND M.A. Student

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India: rising GDP growth

% average annual GDP growth

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1900 – 1950 1.0

1950 – 1980 3.5

1980 – 2002 6.0

2002 – 2006 8.0

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  • What do these figures tell you about the Indian economy?

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Population growth

% average annual growth

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1901 – 1950 1.0

1951 – 1980 2.2

1981 – 1990 2.1

1991 – 2000 1.8

2001 – 2010 1.5

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  • What do these figures tell you about population growth in India?

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Adult literacy rates

%

1950 17

1990 52

2000 65

2010 (projected) 80

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  • What do these figures tell you about changes to education in India?

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People categorised as middle class

% of population Million People

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1980 8 65

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2000 22 220

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2010 (projected) 32 368

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  • What do these figures tell you about the service sector economic growth in India?

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Poverty statistics

Estimates of those in poverty

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1980 46%

2000 26%

2010 (projected) 16%

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  • 1% of the people have been crossing poverty line each year for 20 years. Equals 200 million people.

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  • What do these figures tell you about anti-poverty strategies in India?

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Productivity is rising

30% to 40% of GDP growth is due to

rising productivity

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India is now the 4th largest economy

It will overtake Japan between 2012 and 2014 to become the 3rd largest world economy

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DRIVERS OF GROWTH

India East and S.E. Asia

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Domestic Exports

Services Manufacturing

Consumption Investment

High tech, capital Low tech, labour

intensive industry intensive industry

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What is the implication of the Indian model?

  • Has India skipped the industrial revolution?
  • How does India take its people from farms to cities?

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Rise of globally competitive

Indian companies:

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Reliance, Jet Airways, Infosys, Wipro,

Ranbaxy, Bharat Forge, Tata Motors,

TCS, Bharati, ICICI and HDFC Banks

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Demographic trend points to sharp increases in input factors

25+ yrs

0-25 yrs

Demographic Split

1.5 bn

1.1 bn

Labor Force

Labor Force will double in the next 20 years

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Demographic trend points to sharp increases in input factors

Age Dependency

Savings Rate

Higher savings and investment rate will translate into higher GDP growth

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������“By 2010 India will have world’s largest number of English speakers”��“When 300 million Indians speak a word in a certain way, that will be the way to speak it.”� -Prof. David Crystal, Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language

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