Hit & Run
Economically viable deterrence
Los Angeles
“Hit and run capital of the United States”
55 hit & run accidents per day!
10 per day involve serious injury or death
100+ deaths per year
"It's like a war zone out there.”
“There's nobody there to help. They just accept it as part of living in an urban environment."
LAPD & the City are overwhelmed
80% of hit and runs are unsolved!
Not enough resources: time, money, skill.
They need help.
City offers rewards for information leading to conviction
Death
Serious injury
Injury
Property damage
$50K
$25K
$5K
$1K
Opportunity
Death
Serious injury
Injury
Property damage
$50K
$25K
$5K
$1K
100 x
400 x
3900 x
15600 x
Opportunity
Death
Serious injury
Injury
Property damage
$50K
$25K
$5K
$1K
100 x
400 x
3900 x
15600 x
Total: $50M per year
Solution
But people hate stop light cameras
Stop light cameras encourage reckless behavior—speeding through yellow.
We deter behavior that hurts people or property every time.
Solution
LAPD solve rate is 20%
Assume that by focusing all effort, we can achieve a modest 40% solve rate
40% solved * 20% convicted =
8% overall conviction rate
Implementation: Identify hotspots
LAPD data shows that even w/ 8% conviction rate, top locations have an expected reward value of $6K / year.
OLYMPIC BL at BONNIE BRAE ST | $6,000 |
CRENSHAW BL at PICO BL | $6,000 |
TEMPLE AV at FOLEY WY | $6,000 |
CENTRAL AV at 87TH ST | $6,000 |
Implementation: Identify hotspots
Top 100 locations have aggregate value of $2.1M / year.
Implementation: Install cameras
Offer free security camera to business/residence near hotspot:
High def, night vision, fixed focal length—don’t need zoom
Record everything to SD or HD
Implementation: Install cameras
$1500 per site installation cost
Low operational overhead
Year 1
| Total # installs | Qtr Revenue | Total Outlay |
Q0 | 100 | $1,043,000 | $150,000 |
Q1 | 300 | $2,167,400 | $450,000 |
Q2 | 600 | $5,000,400 | $900,000 |
Q3 | 1000 | $7,922,800 | $1,500,000 |
$16.1M revenue, $1.5M outlay
Year 2
Expand to other cities with high numbers of hit & run accidents and rewards
R&D to increase conviction rate
Give back
Half of all profits donated to victims’ groups, pedestrians’ rights groups.
Launch
The Kickstarter video shoots itself!
Additional revenue streams
Further expansion
Emerging markets with poor traffic infrastructure (India?)
Centrally managed dashcams (Russia)