RIDING THE ROLLERCOASTER OF SCHOOL FINANCE

Presented By: Tracie Rainey

February 20, 2026

WHO WE ARE

Our Mission: To compile, collect and distribute research-based, non-partisan information and data on topics related to school finance for state and local policymakers.

CSFP also supports school districts by providing expertise, technical assistance and capacity building related to best practices in school finance.

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Non-profit, non-partisan�Supported by school district contributions�School Finance analysis for local and state policy makers since 1995�Governed by a board comprised of national and state experts on school finance

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3 THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR SCHOOL FINANCE

• Enrollment
• Specific Ownership Tax going into General Fund
• Impact of School Finance Act – is total program larger or smaller than prior year?

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February 2026

STUDENT TRENDS

2025-26 STUDENT TRENDS

February 2026

February 2026

2025-26 ENROLLMENT

• 823,452 FTE student count – 12,477 decrease from last year
• Enrollment is 11,146 FTE (1.3%) less than forecasted.
• Estimate for 26-27 – 815,264
• 27-28 – 809,226

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February 2026

SURVEY RESULTS

BUDGET REDUCTION SURVEY

• CSFP requested the following information from school districts
• Is your district considering budget reductions for the 2026-2027 School Year?
• If you answered "yes" to the question above, what is the range of cuts considered? (Percentage or Dollar Amount)
• Are you considering reduction of staff? Please feel free to specify.
• Anything else to share?

February 2026

BUDGET REDUCTION SURVEY

• 92 districts responded, 2 BOCES
• 44 districts indicated that they are considering budget cuts
• 30 Districts, 1 BOCES indicated that they are MAYBE considering cuts
• 19 districts, 1 BOCES indicated that they are NOT considering cuts
• We will continue to update information as districts move through their budget process.

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February 2026

BUDGET REDUCTION SURVEY

February 2026

9,077 (2.05)

This survey captured 447,497 students (54%) in Colorado

STATE BUDGET

CURRENTLY

• In May of 2025 - we ended the session with the passage of SFA with 15% implementation and 4-year averaging

February 2026

Buena Vista School District

Find your district here

DECEMBER 2025 FORECAST – Jan. 2026 update

• State Budget Forecasts impacted uncertainty
• Federal Tax changes impacted the state
• Special session ended with a $300 million shortfall in current year.
• Inflation 2.3%
• TABOR refunds: No refund projected for 25-26 but expected in 26-27
• Enrollment trends: Enrollment in Colorado decreased statewide by 12,477 - 1.5% decrease
• Less enrollment - higher local share - state can contribute less to K-12 from general fund.
• State must cut about $800 million in the 26-27 year.

February 2026

GOVERNOR’S PROPOSAL + LEGISLATION

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February 2026

• Governor's proposed budget - implement SFA at 30% and three averaging
• This is how SB26-023 was introduced for 26-27 school year
• Residential assessment rate lowered to 7.06% and non-residential 25%.
• 2027-28 recommendations
• Implement at 50% versus statute at 45%
• Two-year averaging
• Sweep all the SOT taxes that are currently going to school district outside TPF - this equating to $170-$220 million loss for districts

SPECIFIC OWNERSHIP TAX

February 2026

GOVERNOR’S PROPOSAL AND SOT

February 2026

East Grand School District

Governor’s proposal impact by District

SOT loss by District

COST OF LIVING REPORT

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February 2026

• Cost of living figures relate to the cost of buying a market basket of goods and services that represents the spending patterns in the US of the average 3-person household earning $74,131.
• The findings are largely consistent with previous years.
• Aspen continues to have the highest cost of living
• Disparity in cost of living is larger in 2025 than it was in 2023 due to the continued inflation seen in housing costs.
• Districts in Summit, Lake, Park, Eagle, and Routt Counties make up the top of the list
• Denver and Boulder districts remain above the statewide average
• Englewood has risen from the 11th to the 8th most expensive district.
• The districts with the lowest costs of living are primarily located in the Eastern Plains and the San Luis Valley.

Access full report here

February 2026

February 2026

PROPERTY TAX

• Residential assessment rate at 7.05%
• In 2025, residential assessed value growth was due in part to an increase in the assessment rate from a temporarily lower 6.7% to 7.05%
• Non-residential assessment rate to step down until 2027 from 27% to 25%

February 2026

MILL LEVIES…one more time

• Discussion has arisen again regarding the mill levy cap that was set by the CDE and why that varies with the Mesa County ruling.
• This has led to further analysis indicating that local share could be capturing over $100M more than the current mill levy cap.
• No legislation has been introduced at this point - some believe this could be done in the school finance act - others believe this could be done by the CDE in additional mill levy correction.

February 2026

FEDERAL FUNDING

FEDERAL FUNDING FOR CONSIDERATION

• Funding maybe impacted with changes to Medicaid and SNAP
• These changes may impact your FRL count
• With the layoff of Federal Employees, this may impact operations and timing.
• Special Education teacher training dollars have been halted and uncertainty around HeadStart dollars
• It will be important to stay diligent regarding what is proposed in the 26-27 Federal budget to determine whether these funds will continue in the future.
• Implementation of a national voucher program to be determined at the state level
• Uncertainty over dismantling of Department of Education

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February 2026

POTENTIAL BALLOT INITIATIVES

POTENTIAL BALLOT MEASURES+RESOLUTIONS

• Graduated Income Tax – Citizen’s initiative
• De-Brucing – Referred Measure
• Other measures that could reduce funding by making changes in income tax.
• By late spring a much better idea of what measures signatures are being collected and by August what signatures that get turned in.
• GET IT DONE-legislators passing a bill that creates a plan for implementing the Adequacy Studies

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February 2026

Protect Colorado’s Future is the organizing group educating people on the current education tax policy in Colorado.

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This initiative proposes to reduce income tax as well as add a progressive income tax opportunity impacting wage earners over $500,000.

February 2026

February 2026

CEA measure – changing the revenue cap

February 2026

Shall general fund investment in K-12 public education increase 2% each year for the next 10 years, with investments used to increase teacher pay, improve teacher retention, lower class sizes, and increase access to vocational and technical courses, without raising taxes but instead funded through this voter approved revenue change raising the annual limit on state fiscal year spending, only by the amount spent on K-12 public education by the state, and requiring an annual publicly-released, independent audit to show how the new investments are spent?

CONTACT US

Phone

303-941-1633

Email

t.rainey@cosfp.org

Website

www.cosfp.org

Tracie Rainey – Executive Director