Commercial Wargaming �and �American Defense

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.

Chief, Wargaming

Requirements Directorate

Air Force Research Laboratory

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Cleared for Unlimited Release: AFRL 07-0036

July 2007

My Bio

• DoD Civil Servant – previous positions
• Professor of Wargaming, ACSC
• Research Associate, SAAS
• Col USAFR (ret.) - USAFR Assignments
• Senior Reservist, AFRL, Info Directorate
• Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)
• Author/speaker
• Co-author Gulf War Fact Book
• Many articles, chapters, hundreds of talks

Serious Games Discovered

• Interest on Capital Hill
• Congress Member, Governors competing to bring/grow M&S/Gaming industry
• Seminar is on the Army Gaming Strategy and Funding (FY10-15 POM). 
• Scattered urgency in other services to catch up.

Overview

• Origins
• Divergence
• Two Worlds
• The Rise of Civilian Wargaming
• Movement toward collaboration
• Relative Strengths
• Commercial Value to Military
• What is at Stake
• Advice
• End State?

Origins

The origin of

wargaming is

coincident with

the origin of

civilization

Divergence

Military and civilian wargaming diverged with the birth of

professional officer corps

Two Worlds�DOD / Commercial �Wargames 1950 - 1990

The Rise of Commercial Wargaming

• More Accessible Wargames
• 1950s Charles Roberts
• 1960s Eric Dott & Avalon Hill
• 1970s James Dunnigan & the S&T Staff +
• 1980s Chris Crawford & Gary Grigsby
• 1990s 25 Billion dollar global industry

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The Rise of Commercial Wargaming

• More Citizens Playing Wargames
• 1950s Thousands
• 1960s Tens of Thousands
• 1970s Hundreds of Thousands
• 1980s Millions
• 1990s Tens of Millions

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Movement Toward Collaboration

• 1970’s James Dunnigan’s Fire Fight
• 1980’s Project Warrior/Duel Use
• 1990 Mark Herman’s quick turn
• 1990’s Marine Corps Doom
• 2000 America’s Army

Relative Strengths

Military

BAH, SAIC,

• Experienced
• Access to classified
• V,V & A process
• Tools the Standard
• High price/low volume

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detailed, attributable, �user obnoxious

Commercial

EA, Matrix, Paradox

• Creative
• Open Source
• Global peer review
• Global Competition
• Low price/hyper volume

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Intuitive, addictive, fast comprehensive

Commercial Value to Military

Use Title As Is

Commercial Value to Military

Use Title As Is

Adapt Title

Commercial Value to Military

Use Title As Is

Adapt Title

Execute Existing

WGs Faster

Commercial Value to Military

Use Title As Is

Adapt Title

Execute Existing

WGs Faster

New Applications

Of Wargaming

What Is At Stake

Our actions influence the number of casualties we will suffer in this war – and future wars

Advice

• Commercial game technology is of more value to DoD then commercial games
• Use each source of gaming technology for what it does best
• Traditional: pedigree of data, verification of code
• Commercial: fast to learn, execute, understand
• Commercial game tech will only be of value when turning inside adversaries OODA loop is valuable or when student time limited

End State?�Commercial/DOD Integration