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Prognosis studies vary

julie@glanville.info

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3/22/2022

Overall prognosis

What is the most likely course for a specific condition?

Prognostic factors

What characteristics are associated with, or predict, a given outcome?

Predictive/prognostic models

Which groups of patients with specific characteristics are more or less likely to experience a given outcome?

Treatment effect modifiers

Which characteristics or factors impact the effectiveness of a treatment?

PROGnosis RESearch Strategy (PROGRESS) series

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“PICO”: for overall prognosis

Overall prognosis does not explore predictive factors so doesn’t need intervention or comparator
POS plus timing

julie@glanville.info

2

3/22/2022

Population – elderly people with varicose veins

Outcome - wound healing

Setting - role or setting

Timeframe/ timing – time to follow-up

PICOTS: prognostic/prediction factors and models

PICOT-S suggested by Roque 2020 and Cochrane
PICOT-S: What is the best prognostic model to predict overall or progression free survival (outcome) in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (condition)?
Sometimes there are named models – so could search on the model name?
Study designs for factors - ideally prospective cohort studies, also RCTs
Study designs for models – cohort studies, then case control studies, and RCTs

julie@glanville.info

3

3/22/2022

Comparator model/factor

Index - factor/model under review

Population – people with CLL

Outcome - OS or PFS

Timing - when is prediction made and timeframe

Setting/role of the factor/model

What can we reliably search on?

julie@glanville.info

4

3/22/2022

	Global prognosis	Prognostic factors	Prognostic models
Population/Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes
Intervention/Prognostic factor	N/A	Yes	Yes
Comparator	N/A	Possibly	Possibly
Setting/Context	Possibly	Possibly	Possibly
Outcome	Yes	Yes	Yes
Timeframe/timing	No	No – consistency issues	No
Study designs	Possibly	Possibly	Possibly

Search filters? How much agreement is there on the eligible study designs?