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To move or to rebuild?��A Case Study of Post-disaster Migration Decision-making by Santa Rosa residents since the 2017 Tubbs Fire��

Erica Bower

E-IPER PhD

CEE 265F

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Overview of Presentation

Insights from Literature Review (Hurricane Analogue)

Revised Research Questions

Interview Protocol

Next steps

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The New York Times | Sources: Sonoma County Vegetation and Habitat Mapping Program (building footprints); U.S. Geological Survey (fire perimeter)

The Tubbs Fire presents an illustrative case study to advance understanding of how people make migration decisions in the aftermath of a wildfire for a few reasons.

The Tubbs Fire is the second most destructive in California history. Santa Rosa's economic loss from the Tubbs Fire was estimated at $1.2 billion (2017 USD), with five percent of the city's housing stock destroyed (~3,000 homes).
Neighborhoods with homes of differing average values were affected. This enables insights into differences in migration decision-making for persons of diverse demographic and socioeconomic statuses.
Nearly two and a half years have passed between the wildfire and intended field work. This passage of time means that the initial trauma is lessened, yet migration decisions remain recent on people’s minds.

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?

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Insights from Literature Review: There is ongoing debate about whether such onward mobility is a ‘failure to adapt’ or a ‘strategy for adaptation’.

Loss & Damage

Adaptation

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Review of Papers on post-Hurricane Migration Decision-Making highlights complexity and multi-causality of this process.

	Hurricanes (Katrina, Sandy, Rita)
Behavioral / Social	concept of ‘home’, place attachment, emotional intensity, loss and nostalgia (Morrice 2013); sense of identity and place (Bryner, Garcia-Lozano, and Bruch 2017); place attachment (Li et al. 2010); contrast to (Landry et al. 2007) which found no effect of “connection to place”; social networks (Li et al. 2010); Social Vulnerability (Myers, Slack, and Singelmann 2008); perceived experiences of discrimination in institutional and social contexts (Asad 2015)
Economic	income levels, implicit costs, foregone wages (Landry et al. 2007); labor market in context of reception in destination location (Asad 2015)
Demographic	Age, income, education level, status of employment, marital status, home ownership status (Landry et al. 2007); race (mediated by pattern/ of storm damage, and resulting housing damage level) (Groen and Polivka 2010) (Fussell, Sastry, and Vanlandingham 2010)
Political	existence of policies promoting/prohibiting return (Bryner, Garcia-Lozano, and Bruch 2017) including: Tax incentives, Buyouts, Changes to building codes, Revisions to US National flood insurance program
Environmental	degree of housing damage (Fussell, Sastry, and Vanlandingham 2010); habitability of homes (Bryner, Garcia-Lozano, and Bruch 2017)

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Factors influencing post-wildfire migration decisions identified in literature review

Access to information

Age; Gender; Ethnicity; Income; Status as owner or renter; Housing type

Networks of family members, community cohesion, place attachment, nostalgia

Policies promoting/ inhibiting return (e.g. tax incentives, buy-outs, building code changes)

Proximity to employment; Insurance; cost of moving; prospects for jobs and housing markets

Population size/density;

Population structure

Current and future hazard risk

Adapted from Black et al (2011)

Behavioral

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A map prepared by the City of Santa Rosa shows the overlap between the Oct. 8 Tubbs fire that leveled neighborhoods in Fountaingrove and north Santa Rosa, and, the 1964 Hanly fire. �( CITY OF SANTA ROSA )��

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Revised Research Questions

How did individuals displaced by the 2017 Tubbs Fire decide whether to migrate or rebuild post-disaster?

What factors did individuals consider in making post-disaster migration decisions?

How do these individuals perceive future wildfire risk? To what extent does this influence migration decisions, if at all?

What is the role of information about future wildfire risk as an intervening facilitator in migration decisions?

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Interview Protocol Sections

1. Before the fire

2. Experiences making decisions to rebuild or move – ranking order of factors

3. Perceptions of future wildfire risk

4. Perceptions of policy interventions

5. Final questions

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Next Steps

Preparation

1. Develop community partners

2. Conduct Literature Review

3. Draft Semi-Structured Interview Protocol

- Pilot -> Revise Protocol

4. Complete IRB Trainings & submit for approval

Field Work

Purposive ‘snowball’ sampling approach within three groups

Rebuilt in Santa Rosa
Moved within 30 mile radius
Moved beyond 30 miles

Conduct ~30-35 Interviews

Analysis

Transcribe Interviews (TEMI Software)

Code Interviews (NVIVO Software)

“Grounded Theory” approach to analysis

Synthesize findings

Next steps: Inform a larger N survey

Winter 2020: CEE 265F

Spring - Summer 2020

Summer - Fall 2020

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Takeaways

Mobility decisions are extremely complex and multi-causal; little is known about how people decide to rebuild or to move after wildfire.

Review of literature informs hypotheses and provides insights about gaps (e.g. wildfire hazard type, role of information, role of perceptions of future hazard risk).

Goal: Tubbs Fire Case Study aims to help fill gaps in understanding of wildfire-related migration decisions, and to inform future policy and information dissemination interventions.