Purpose of the Plan

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To achieve greater harmony between local economic realities and what residents prioritize, Grand County is creating the Trail to Tomorrow Strategic Plan to manage tourism more sustainably while continuing to develop a diverse economy over the next five years.

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With a commitment to hearing all voices, this planning process is intended to enhance local quality of life as well as the experience of those who visit or do business here, while safeguarding the special nature and culture of Grand County.�

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A Strategic Plan for…..

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Sustainable Tourism: How might we define sustainable tourism in the context of Grand County, and what are the key challenges in achieving it over the next five years?

Economic Diversification: What is the current state of diversification, and what sectors or industries should be prioritized in our efforts to diversify Grand County's economy?

Asset-Based Economic Development: In what ways can we better leverage Grand County’s natural and cultural assets to foster economic development while maintaining the community's character and values?

Key Questions and Findings

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Tourism Dependency: How significant of a driver is the tourism sector in the industry mix of Grand County, and what does that mean for long-term sustainability?

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Services and retail are the backbone of the Grand County economy, generating 87% of taxable sales from April 2023 to March 2024. Of that amount, 52% came from services — including lodging, restaurants, and drinking establishments — and 35% from retail trade. This is powerful evidence that Grand County’s economy is tourism-based.

Key Questions and Findings

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Tourism Dependency:

Key Questions and Findings

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Tourism Dependency:

Key Questions and Findings

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Employment Concentration: Are there potential risks of having a high concentration of jobs in a single industry, particularly tourism, in Grand County? How might this affect economic resilience and what steps should we consider to diversify employment opportunities?

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Compared with 11 other places renowned for outdoor recreation, Grand County is lightly populated and employment is highly concentrated in a single industry. Of the county’s jobs, 48.9% relate to tourism and outdoor recreation. Only Mono County CA, home to Mammoth Lakes, has a higher percentage of jobs concentrated in that sector (54.8%).

Key Questions and Findings

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Employment Concentration:

Key Questions and Findings

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Housing Costs and Availability: As we consider the long-term economic development of Grand County, how significant is housing affordability/availability as a factor in sustaining the local workforce and community? What challenges do we face in ensuring that residents are not overburdened by housing costs?

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Of the comparison communities, Grand County has both the lowest median household income and the highest share of “housing cost-burdened” homeowners. Nearly 46% of county homeowners have mortgages taking more than 30% of their incomes, an indicator of economic vulnerability.

Key Questions and Findings

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Housing Costs and Availability:

Housing & Income:�The Area Median Income (AMI) ratio, in relation to housing affordability, is a measure used to assess the affordability of housing in a particular area relative to the median income of that area.

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• In Grand County, cumulative deficits in rental units exist at all levels of income at or below 80% AMI. This deficit reaches its trough at -527 units for 40% AMI ($28.2k). At this level, there are 615 households and only 88 affordable units. Housing is considered to be affordable at 30% of household income.
• The median family income in Grand County as of 2022 was $70,600, which would suggest affordable rent plus utilities to the median household is $1,765.

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Figure Data Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute – University of Utah: The Utah Housing Affordability Dashboard.

https://gardner.utah.edu/affordable-housing-dashboard/

Key Questions and Findings

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Visitor Trends and Economic Impact: How closely are visitor numbers and trends in park visitation linked to the economic health of Grand County? What might these trends indicate about our current tourism model?

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Visitation to Arches and Canyonlands is almost perfectly correlated to taxable sales in Grand County. This means that as visitation to the two parks rises or falls, taxable sales go up or down in nearly perfect proportion. From 2010-2019, the correlation rate of taxable sales to Arches and Canyonlands visitation was about .94, with 1.0 indicating a perfect positive correlation.

Key Questions and Findings

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Visitor Trends and Economic Impact:

Key Questions and Findings

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Visitor Trends and Economic Impact:

Key Questions and Findings

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Visitor Trends and Economic Impact:

Key Questions and Findings

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Visitor Trends and Economic Impact: Which of the following activities did you participate in on your most recent visit to Moab?

All Respondents

Respondents who Visited Arches

Key Questions and Findings

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Mixed opinions on the value of promotion: Mixed opinions across the community exist regarding the promotion of Grand County as a tourist destination.

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How should we balance the need to attract visitors with the concerns about local infrastructure and services?

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Key Questions and Findings

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Mixed opinions on the value of promotion:

Key Questions and Findings

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Mixed opinions on the value of promotion:

A Strategic Plan for…..

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• Sustainable Tourism: How might we define sustainable tourism in the context of Grand County, and what are the key challenges in achieving it over the next five years?
• Economic Diversification: What is the current state of diversification, and what sectors or industries should be prioritized in our efforts to diversify Grand County's economy?
• Asset-Based Economic Development: In what ways can we better leverage Grand County’s natural and cultural assets to foster economic development while maintaining the community's character and values?

Three Pathways to Success

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1: Address the fundamentals: Housing, Workforce, Infrastructure, Transportation

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2: Grow “tourism-adjacent” businesses and support entrepreneurship: Entrepreneurs, Incubators, Training Grounds, Creative Economy, Weddings, Nonprofits

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3: Engineer tourism to support community happiness and quality of place: Valued Visitors, New Offerings, Visitor Flows, Optimize Uses, Film, Stewardship

Measuring Pathway Success

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1: Address the fundamentals: Increased Housing Availability and Affordability, Job Growth within AND beyond tourism, Increased Transportation Efficiencies

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2: Grow “tourism-adjacent” businesses and support entrepreneurship: Business Startups AND Retention

3: Engineer tourism to support community happiness and quality of place: Lodging Occupancy, Taxable Sale, Resident Sentiment

#1 – CREATE MORE HOUSING.

1. Establish a point person to seek ways of stimulating housing development. Engage a full-time expert resource, whether contractually or on staff, to identify possibilities for fast-tracking development of more housing, especially for Grand County workers.

PATHWAY 1 Address the fundamentals. 

A. Support expanding the availability and affordability of housing.

#2-A COMMUNITY OF ENTREPRENEURS

PATHWAY 2 Grow "tourism-adjacent" businesses and support entrepreneurship.

1. Support growth of a connected, supportive community of entrepreneurs interested in integrating work with a passion for outdoor recreation.

1. Seek support for incentivizing startup outdoor recreation businesses to choose Grand County. Explore creating a development zone offering tax offsets to outdoor-related businesses meeting local criteria.
2. Build a sense of community through networking and social events. Support development of networking events, workshops, social gatherings, and outdoor experiences tailored to Grand County entrepreneurs. This can build a sense of community, create opportunities for collaboration and knowledge sharing, and attract other outdoor entrepreneurs.

#3 - BUILD THE CREATIVE ECONOMY

PATHWAY 2 Grow "tourism-adjacent" businesses and support entrepreneurship.

1. Foster a vibrant creative economy by nurturing local talent, supporting small enterprises, and integrating arts and culture into community development.

1. Encourage development of creative hubs. Support efforts to create dedicated spaces for local artists, designers, and creative professionals to work, collaborate, and showcase their work.
2. Fund initiatives to expand the county's arts culture. Allocate funding, potentially through rural grants, to advance the interests of local artists, creative startups, and cultural initiatives.
3. Support enhancement and development of cultural venues. Support efforts to enhance existing cultural venues. Evaluate the feasibility of establishing a riverside amphitheater at the UMTRA site to host live performances and cultural events.

Kettlehouse Amphitheater

Missoula, Montana

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Located adjacent to the award-winning Kettlehouse Brewery, the amphitheater seats 4,250 and gives both artists and concertgoers a uniquely Montana entertainment experience.

#4 – ATTRACT VALUED VISITORS.

PATHWAY 3 Engineer tourism to support community happiness.

1. Seek ongoing insight into the county's optimal visitors. Continually assess and identify visitors with the highest potential to support long-term objectives for a healthy Grand County tourism economy.
2. Seek visitors who care about natural resources. Shape messaging and media buys to prioritize attracting visitors — across all targeted market segments — who are inclined to share care for outdoor spaces and local communities.
3. Broaden the appeal of the most diverse range of outdoor offerings in the U.S. Segment targeted travelers based on ability to navigate the region's outdoor experiences. Evolve campaign strategy based on how each segment — Sightseers, Adventurers or Overlappers — delivers benefits for Grand County.
4. Consider using guided experiences as a primary call to action. Frame Grand County's stellar collection of outfitted experiences as a compelling reason to visit.

1. Attract visitors most likely to generate positive impacts and who will share respect for Grand County places.

THREE TARGET TRAVEL SEGMENTS

• Provides a focus for both marketing and product development.
• Compatible with the types of visitors residents would value.
• More research needed to assess the relative value for each segment.

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#4 - DEFUSE CONFLICT.

4. Collaborate with land managers and user groups to optimize the enjoyment and use of key natural resources, especially Arches National Park.

1. Work with land managers and outfitters to classify activities as easy, moderate, and difficult.
2. Seek voluntary resolution of user conflicts.
3. Support addressing user conflicts by creating new experiences.
4. Seek support for Arches to continue adapting the reservation system.
5. Position Utahraptor State Park as the region's ‘fourth’ park.

PATHWAY 3 Engineer tourism to support community happiness.

Vail, Colorado�Destination Stewardship Plan

December 6, 2021

Thank You

Jeremy Sage, PhD

Director of Economics & Tourism Research

RRC Associates

Jeremy@rrcassociates.com