Daily Market Journal

Date:

07.07.2024 Sunday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• “Further squeeze: Green path: We squeeze further up and we touch the 2021 Feb Highs Pivot, and we potentially reject from it. “
• We saw the green path play out today, and yes we rejected from the 2021 Feb Highs Pivot.

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• “Price is also coming into the H1 slower moving EMAs (100EMA currently) which could be a potential area for resistance “
• We could also see a couple hours of action above, but then fell back below proving the H1 100EMA as resistance currently.

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• “Still some liquidity above that could be squeezed further”
• Based on the Liquidation heatmap yesterday we could see some liquidity squeezed out on the short side

BTC

• What did Price do today?
• Price pushed up into the 2021 Feb Highs Pivot and rejected from it
• Price fell back below the 100EMA H1 after reclaiming it for a couple hours proving it as resistance
• Price currently fell also below the 50EMA H1 and is now retesting it bearishly
• H1 bands turned red
• Currently we are in a H1 downtrend, with potential support below at 56K

Key Levels (Current BTC Price = 57192)

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• Liquidity levels (stops resting):
• UP:
• 72061.7 (SEC ETH ETF news pump highs)
• DOWN:
• 53329.5 (05.07 friday’s lows)

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• HTF Opens
• 62766.1 (Monthly and Weekly Open) we are currently below = bears in control
• 71363.0 (Highest monthly close, Pivot)

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• OB levels
• 56958.0 - 59637.3 (Bullish OB Daily 1) price fell through the OB completely
• 51300 - 52050 (Bullish OB)
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• Pivots
• 58472.1 (2021 Febs High Pivot) retested bearish, now resistance
• 64986.1 (2021 Aprils High Pivot)
• 69198.7 (2021 ATH + Pivot SR)
• 70K (round number Pivot)
• 71363.0 (Key ATH resistance Pivot)

Different exchange prices may differ . The below shown prices are form the Binance and Bybit Perps USDT chart

Volume Profile on the Daily chart

I drew up 2 Volume profiles:

1. From the January Bottom to BTC’s current ATH
2. From June’s highs to the current bottom

Why am I looking at these Volume Profiles?

1. The Q1 rally was a significant rally that brought us all the way from 39K to 74K in a matter of 51 days, and because of it’s up-only nature left a lot of unfilled inefficiencies behind.
1. Seeing the accumulation areas (marked with blue) inside it could be crucial in seeing where price finds support, or if it loses an area it could unwind quickly to the next.
2. ​
2. This selloff we had since June was pretty much a down only grind, full with bullish cope. The people who bought on the way down thinking we find support at 60K are now underwater.
• Reclaiming the Value Area (marked with green) of this selloff could be a clear bullish sign from the market, signaling strength

Todays update: Price is currently above the 50-52K Accumulation area, and below the selloffs Value Area marked in green.

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CME Annualized Basis

The annualized basis is how much % one could make on an annualized basis with longing Spot and shorting Futures.

Historically anything below 0% is a huge buy, and anything around or below 5% is a strong buy.

If we see the Annualized Basis touch below 5% in bull market environment it is a no-brainer spot buy opportunity.

Current level:

9.25%

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BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• Price up 7.29% from the lows as OI is up only 2.57%
• CVDs moving together
• Funding turned briefly negative but back now to below neutral
• Spot premium present

OI pretty interesting. Shows no demand in terms of positions adding and trying to bet on price. It’s kind of just letting it do it’s thing and bleed.

• Liquidation heatmap:
• Areas both sides. No one area becomes clear now anymore. Both areas could get attacked on LTFs

Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• ALTs down more today than BTC after a bigger green day yesterday
• ETH bit stronger than Total 3 but weaker than BTC
• BTC D green day

USDT Margin Borrow Interest Rate = (Leverage in the system)

Borrow rates sideways. Around the pre-eth etf news levels.

BTC and ETH Open Interest

We can see the exchanges and the open OI on them. This can give us an insight of positions opening or closing, and the presence or absence of demand towards the two majors.

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BTC OI

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ALL OI: 28.22B

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ETH OI

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ALL OI: 12.20B

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All open OI

ETH/BTC ratio:

43.2%

Todays changes:

• 220mil decline in total OI

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• 100mil decline in CME OI

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Todays changes:

• 360mil decline in total OI

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• 140mil decline in Binance OI
• 130mil decline in Bybit OI

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BTC possible paths

1. Reclaim: Green path: We squeeze back to the highs and we flip the 2021 Feb’s High Pivot. Would be the instant bullish case for BTC showing some strength to reclaim a key level.

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• Chop, January 23 path: Orange path: We continue to chop around the bands and just build value above the lows here ready for a move higher.

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• Downtrend: Red path: We continue to trend down on the H1, and we retest the breakdown possibly (or we might not and just go lower).

Stocks, Macro

• Weekend, market’s closed.

Other coins, honorable mentions

• No coins on my radar now. Waiting for Daily Michael's bands to turn green.

Market conclusion / thoughts / future outlooks

• Quiet Sunday, perfect for some things to get done.
• Have plans for your future entries and exits, build strategies and systems.
• This will be a choppy couple weeks ahead probably, where you can gain the advantage above those who just quit the markets until there are green candles again.

Further notes about the market - if any

No further notes today.