S2-02 Solar Indices and Irradiance Team�==================================

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Team Lead: C. Henney (AFRL)

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Co-lead: K. Muglach (NASA/GSFC, CUA)��

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List of People

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• ^{Young &….}

ISWAT overview:�

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COSPAR International Space Weather Action Team Cluster S2:

�Ambient Solar Magnetic Field, Heating and Spectral Irradiance

https://iswat-cospar.org/s2

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Introduction:

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• Solar XUV (0.1-10 nm), EUV (10-120 nm), and FUV (120-200 nm) radiation is absorbed in the Earth's upper atmosphere, driving ionization and heating of the neutral atmosphere.

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• Current Ionosphere-Thermosphere (I/T) models are capable of using measured VUV (0 to 200 nm) spectral information to drive the models, as well as modeled EUV spectra based on solar indices (e.g. F10.7, Mg II index (core-to-wing ratio), solar sunspot number (SSN)).

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Near-term goal of team:

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• Create a real-time scoreboard of publicly available model predictions of solar indices (to be set up by CCMC)

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What is needed for this:

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• Input requirements of I/T forecast models (which index, time cadence, …)
• Meta-data & file format for community scoreboard
• Identify community solar index forecast models to include in scoreboard
• Include baseline models in the scoreboard (recurrence and persistence)

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First step:

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• Use AFRL SIFT model to set up prototype of scoreboard (done by CCMC)
• Current indices: F10.7 flux, Mg II index, Solar Sunspot Number (SSN)
• SIFT can produce 1-7d forecasts at 2h cadence
• Scoreboard will display model forecasts (including persistence and recurrence) with latest observed value
• Additional participation from NOAA/SWPC (human-in-the-loop forecast)

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Following steps:

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• Advertise prototype and invite community to participate
• Add additional indices according to what is needed by I/T models and according to what can be provided by solar modeling

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G2A - S2-02 session:

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Discussion with I/T community:

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• Additional indices: F30 flux, S10 index
• Confirm: 1-7d forecasts at 2h cadence
• 3 additional modeling groups are interested to participate
• Include uncertainties for both observed and model index

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