Implications of Demographic Transition Model by C.P. Blacker in the Recent Context: Focus on India
What is Demography?
Demography is the statistical study of human populations.
Fertility
Mortality
Migration
Demographic Transition
Historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in societies with minimal technology, education (especially of women) and economic development,
to low birth rates and low death rates in societies with advanced technology, education and economic development, as well as the stages between these two scenarios.
This concept was put forward by
Overview of Demographic Transition Model by C.P. Blacker (1947)
High Stationary
Early Expanding
Late Expanding
Low stationary
Declining
Demographic
Trap and Burden
Demographic
Dividend
Demographic
Bonus
Zero Population
Growth
Population
Pyramid
Significance
Birth Rate:
No. of Birth/1000 People�Death Rate:
No. of Death/1000 People
Natural Increase:
Amount of Population increase due to higher birth rate than death rate. If birth rate of a country is 50 and death rate 25, then the Natural Increase is 50-25=25
�
= 2.5%
Age—Composition of India’s population (1951–2100)
Source: World Population Prospects (22nd Revision), United Nations 2022. Note: child population, working age population, and old age population are all ratios to total population (in percentage form)
Male
Male
Female
Female
Female
Age-Sex Pyramid: India, 1991-2011
1991
2001
2011
Male
Recent Context of Demographic Transition in India
Patterns, Challenges, and Opportunities
Stage 1: High Stationary
Birth Rate: High
Death Rate: High
Population Growth: Low and fluctuating
Time Period in India: Pre-1920s
Context: Poor healthcare, frequent famines, epidemics, and limited sanitation kept both birth and death rates high. Life expectancy was low.
Stage 2: Early Expanding
Birth Rate: Remains high
Death Rate: Declines rapidly
Population Growth: Rapid increase
Time Period in India: 1920s–1950s
Context: Introduction of British-era public health measures, some improvement in food supply and sanitation began reducing mortality, especially infant deaths.
Stage 3: Late Expanding
Birth Rate: Starts declining
Death Rate: Continues to decline
Population Growth: Slows down, but still positive
Time Period in India: 1950s–present (in progress)
Context: Introduced family planning, improved education, and better healthcare. Fertility rates began to decline, though unevenly across regions. States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu advanced faster than Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.
Stage 4: Low Stationary
Birth Rate: Low
Death Rate: Low
Population Growth: Stable or slowly increasing
Time Period in India: Emerging in southern and some urbanized parts
Context: Total fertility rate (TFR) in India is close to 2.0 (as of NFHS-5), approaching replacement level. Several states are experiencing near-zero or even negative population growth.
India’s Journey through the Demographic Transition
Large Working-Age Population: ~67% of India's population (15-64 years) is working-age.
Window of Opportunity: Expected to last until 2040-2050 (NITI Aayog).
Potential Benefits: Increased economic growth, higher savings, innovation.
Challenges: Requires massive investment in education, skill development (e.g., 10M new jobs annually needed), healthcare, and job creation.
Jobless Growth Concern: India's unemployment rate (7.8% in 2023) higher than pre-pandemic levels.
The Demographic Dividend: Opportunity and Imperatives
Aging Population: Proportion of 60+ population projected to reach ~20% by 2050 (from ~10% in 2021).
Policy Focus: Strengthen social security, elderly care, and healthcare infrastructure.
Urbanization: Migration from rural to urban areas (35% urbanized in 2021, projected 40% by 2030).
Sustainable Development: Managing resource strain, environmental impact, and social equity.
Beyond the Dividend: Policy Implications and Future Outlook
Criticism
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