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Denver Bullet Study

Lesson 13.1

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Agenda

  1. Learning Goals
  2. Review Questions
  3. Glorin-Fuilder Firework Study
  4. Campus Development
  5. Final Question
  6. Misinformation Pre-poll

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Learning Goals

After this lesson, you should

  1. Be optimistic that a community can come together to make a decision, even when people begin with heterogeneous values and beliefs.
  2. Be able to identify stakeholders and experts and distinguish between the values and facts of an issue.

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Learning Goals: Definitions

  • Stakeholders: The set of people who have a stake in the outcome of a decision. This can include people who will implement the decision and all the people affected by it.
  • Experts: The set of people who have the most knowledge/information/expertise about the facts relevant to the decision.
  • Denver Bullet Study: An experiment in group deliberation in which a community came together to share values and knowledge to make a decision about what kind of bullet the Denver Police should use, which had enough stopping power to keep cops safe but was not so harmful as to cause unnecessary damage to citizens (as did classic hollow bullets).

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Agenda

  1. Learning Goals
  2. Review Questions
  3. Glorin-Fuilder Firework Study
  4. Campus Development
  5. Final Question
  6. Misinformation Pre-poll

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Review Questions

  1. Should we let experts make all policy decisions in society? Why or why not?
  2. What is the role of values in the Denver Bullet Study?
  3. What is the role of facts in the Denver Bullet Study?
  4. How does the Denver Bullet Study synthesize facts and values in arriving at a group decision?
  5. Suppose all policy decisions were made in a process like the Denver Bullet Study. Would such a country be a democracy or an epistocracy?

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Review Questions

  1. Where do the values, facts, and synthesis appear on this diagram of the Denver Bullet Study?

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Review Questions

  • Where do the values, facts, and synthesis appear on this diagram of the Denver Bullet Study?

values

facts

synthesis

synthesis

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Agenda

  1. Learning Goals
  2. Review Questions
  3. Glorin-Fuilder Firework Study
  4. Campus Development
  5. Final Question
  6. Misinformation Pre-poll

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Glorin-Fuilder Firework Study

How do we reconcile this?�(see handout)

Glorin wants this:

Fuilder wants this:

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Part 1: Diagramming the Study

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Part 1: Diagramming the Study

  1. What are some factors of the choice of firework (resulting from the properties of the firework) that Glorin and Fuilder residents might value differently?
  2. Assuming the only two relevant factors are the “brightness” and “loudness” as perceived from the ground, what might a Denver Bullet Study style framework look like?

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Part 1: Diagramming the Study

One possible framework diagram is shown on the right.

Remember, as advisor to Prince Kumperdinck, you only designed the basic study framework. You were not the expert brought in to decide how the properties of various specific fireworks (the “Scientific Data”) relate to the factors people assign value weightings to (the “Scientific Judgments”).

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Part 2: Compiling the Results

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Part 2: Compiling the Results

  1. Who are the relevant stakeholders and experts? What are their roles in the decision making process?

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Part 2: Compiling the Results

Goodness of Loudness

Goodness of Brightness

Average Fuilder Resident

1

10

Average Glorin Resident

-10

1

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Part 2: Compiling the Results

Loudness Measured

Brightness Measured

Fire Tornado

8

10

Warm Greetings

2

3

Happy Flower

5

6

Dancing Butterfly

4

9

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Part 3: Making a Recommendation

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Part 3: Making a Recommendation

  1. Given the fact and value ratings from the citizens and scientists, fill out the recommendation table.

Total Goodness for Fuilder

Total Goodness for Glorin

Total Goodness for All

Fire Tornado

Warm Greetings

Happy Flower

Dancing Butterfly

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Part 3: Making a Recommendation

  • Given the fact and value ratings from the citizens and scientists, fill out the recommendation table.

Total Goodness for Fuilder

Total Goodness for Glorin

Total Goodness for All

Fire Tornado

108

-70

38

Warm Greetings

32

-17

15

Happy Flower

65

-44

21

Dancing Butterfly

94

-31

63

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Part 3: Making a Recommendation

  • Which firework would you choose if you are a person from Fuilder? Which would you choose if you are from Glorin?

Total Goodness for Fuilder

Total Goodness for Glorin

Total Goodness for All

Fire Tornado

108

-70

38

Warm Greetings

32

-17

15

Happy Flower

65

-44

21

Dancing Butterfly

94

-31

63

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Part 3: Making a Recommendation

  • As the advisor to Prince Kumperdinck, which firework would you recommend?

Total Goodness for Fuilder

Total Goodness for Glorin

Total Goodness for All

Fire Tornado

108

-70

38

Warm Greetings

32

-17

15

Happy Flower

65

-44

21

Dancing Butterfly

94

-31

63

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Part 3: Making a Recommendation

  • How does this technique produce/output the optimal type of firework?

Dancing Butterfly!

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Agenda

  1. Learning Goals
  2. Review Questions
  3. Glorin-Fuilder Firework Study
  4. Campus Development
  5. Final Question
  6. Misinformation Pre-poll

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Campus Development

There are talks of developing the Oxford Field Tract (a large plot of land owned by UC Berkeley in Northside near downtown). It currently holds farms, greenhouses, and other research facilities for the College of Natural Resources.

Suppose you are a campus administrator tasked with using a method like that of the Denver Bullet Study to determine which of the following development proposals to adopt.

  1. Leave the land as is for CNR.
  2. Build high density student housing on it.
  3. Turn the land into a public park.
  4. Build academic buildings to hold classrooms and offices.

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Campus Development

Following the Denver Bullet Study method, answer the following questions in small groups.

  1. Who are the stakeholders?
  2. Who might the experts be?
  3. List some consequences of the above plans that the stakeholders might value.
  4. How might the experts determine the consequences of each proposal?

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Agenda

  • Learning Goals
  • Review Questions
  • Glorin-Fuilder Firework Study
  • Campus Development
  • Final Question
  • Misinformation Pre-poll

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Final Questions

  • What is a potential policy decision that you should not decide with a Denver Bullet Study method?
  • What’s a current or former policy proposal that would benefit from a Denver Bullet Study style decision?

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Agenda

  • Learning Goals
  • Review Questions
  • Glorin-Fuilder Firework Study
  • Campus Development
  • Final Question
  • Misinformation Pre-poll

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Misinformation Pre-poll

Our next lesson and plenary will be a “deliberative poll” on online misinformation. We’ll be seeing how your opinions on these policy proposals change as a result of this exercise.

It’s okay that you don’t have complete context for these policy proposals.

Fill out this pre-poll!