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CHAPTER 9: TRANSFORMING DATA INTO�EVIDENCE �(PART 2)

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Learning Objectives

  1. Explain the application of descriptive statistics in forensic accounting engagements
  2. Identify and describe various methods for displaying data
  3. Explain the purpose and application of data mining in forensic accounting engagements
  4. Identify examples of data analysis software, and explain the advantages and disadvantages of each
  5. Explain Benford’s Law and describe specific digital analysis tests

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Explain the Application of Descriptive Statistics in Forensic Accounting Engagements

Learning Objective 1

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Descriptive Statistics

  • Purpose is to describe data using various numerical measures and graphical depictions
  • forensic accountants must first develop familiarity with the data
    • Facilitate ease and efficiency of analytic process
    • Determine whether a specific method can be applied
    • Expert testimony must be
      • Based on sufficient relevant data
      • Stated within reasonable degree of professional certainty
      • Describe samples of data
      • the purpose of statistics is to “summarize data, analyze them, and draw meaningful inferences that lead to improved decisions

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Descriptive Statistics

    • The purpose of descriptive statistics is to describe data using various numerical measures and graphical depictions
    • A population is the entire group of observations in which we are interested, whereas a sample is a subset of observations selected from the population
    • A measure that describes a population is called a parameter, and a measure that describes a sample is called a statistic
    • Thus, descriptive statistics are simply measures that describe samples of data.

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Inferential Statistics

  • Descriptive statistics can be contrasted with inferential statistics, the purpose of which is to draw conclusions (or inferences) about a population based on information obtained from a sample Less likely be used by forensic accountants
  • in forensic accounting engagements applications are much more limited
  • The most basic feature is the number of observations. This feature is important because it determines the scope of the analysis

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Identify and Describe Various Methods for Displaying Data

Learning Objective 2

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Common Descriptive Measures

  • Numerous measures are used to describe a data set
  • Calculation of these measures is a necessary starting point for analyzing any large data set in a forensic accounting engagement
  • The various descriptive measures can be categories:
    • The key measures of central tendency
      • Mean: The average value calculated by adding all the observations and dividing by the number of observations
      • Median :The center point of the data set
      • Mode: The most frequently occurring value
      • Of these three measures, the mean is the most commonly recognized

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Measures of Variability

    • Measures of variability
    • Three common measures of variability include:
      • Range:the difference between the values of the largest and smallest observations
      • Variance:The average of the squared deviations of the observations from the mean
      • Standard deviation: The square root of the variance

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Histogram

  • Histogram is a bar chart in which each bar represents a single interval
    • Height of the bar indicates number (or frequency) of observations in the interval
    • The histogram is an important data analysis tool because it illustrates the shape of the data distribution, which is a key determinant of the analytic methods that can be applied
    • First step—defining intervals
    • Matter of judgment for analyst
    • Inverse relationship between size of intervals and number of intervals for a given data set; the smaller the intervals, the larger the number of intervals
    • Every observation should be included in only one interval
    • Not appropriate to create equal intervals in forensic accounting engagement

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Absolute Versus Relative Frequency

  • A Histogram is simply a graph of the frequencies of grouped data
  • Frequencies can be represented as absolute frequencies or relative frequencies
  • Absolute frequency: Count of observations within an interval
  • Relative frequency: Percentage of total number of observations that fall within an interval
  • Only difference is labeling of vertical axis
  • Advantage of relative frequency
    • Described relative to a standard quantity
    • Can be interpreted as probabilities

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Skewness

  • Skewness is a measure of degree of asymmetry of a data distribution around its mean
    • Positively skewed: Distribution is more heavily weighted toward smaller numbers
    • Negatively skewed: when a distribution extends farther to the right than to the left
    • For a symmetric distribution, mean, median, and mode are all equal
    • An important fact to keep in mind is that, for a symmetric distribution (with no skewness), the mean, median, and mode are all equal
    • For a right-skewed distribution, the mean is greater than the median, which is greater than the mode. The opposite is true for a left-skewed distribution

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Discrete Versus Continuous Distributions

  • Discrete distribution: Observations are countable, and there is a discrete jump between successive values
    • Example: Money
    • Because money is measured to the cent, it is considered a discrete variable
  • Continuous distribution: Values can be measured to an infinite small degree of accuracy
    • Example: Time, weight, and distance
  • Both can be graphed as histograms
    • Difference is that, with a continuous distribution, measurement scale can be refined

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Normal Distribution

  • A variable is said to be normally distributed when:
    • It is affected by many independent causes
    • Effect of each cause is not substantially large compared to others
  • Important features of the normal distribution include the following:
    • Symmetric around its mean mean—that is, it has zero skewness
    • Mean, median, and mode are all equal
    • Described by its mean and standard deviation
  • Important in inferential statistics

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Evaluating the Distribution of a Data Set

  • The forensic accountant’s next challenge is evaluating the distribution of the data in comparison to previously determined expectations
    • Such expectations are based on benchmarks such as past experience for the subject entity
    • Comparison between actual and expected values can range from very simple to very complex
    • Finally, it is possible that changes in external variables (such as economic factors, weather, and industry competition) may temporarily or permanently alter the expected distribution

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Methods for Displaying Data

  • How to best display data is of paramount importance to forensic accountants when presenting their ultimate findings to an untrained audience like a jury
  • Visual exhibits are utilized for two reasons:
    • Images are more effective than words in conveying complex ideas
    • Information can be communicated more efficiently in visual form
  • Ease of interpretation can be enhanced by graphing summary data in charts
  • Basic charts
    • Pie charts and bar graphs are used to display categories of data that sum to a total

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Biases in Graphs

  • Any exercise of discretion in creating
  • Failure to include scale
  • Manipulating the scale—most common way
  • Inclusion (or lack thereof) of labels
    • A graph should always have a title
    • Whether to include labels for individual data points depends on purpose of the graph and available space
    • The goal is to achieve a balance—providing enough information to ensure accurate interpretation but not so much that the intended meaning is obscured

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Explain the Purpose and Application of Data Mining in Forensic Accounting Engagements

Learning Objective 3

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Data Mining

  • The goal of data mining is to find individual items of value—in this context, information—in a vast group of items, such as a large data set
  • Used to reduce large number of observations to smaller number that can be examined more closely
  • Used to identify relationships among factors, known as patterns
    • If patterns in existing data reflect expected or normal experience, they can be used to create data profiles to compare new data
      • Data profiles
        • May reflect past behavior of the system being studied
        • May be extrapolated from other similar systems
        • May be product of complex models

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Data Mining Applications

  • Data mining can be used in various fields such as :
  • Marketing research: Predicting consumer demand and sales
  • Drug research: Predicting effectiveness of drugs and likelihood of side effects
  • Credit scoring: Predicting likelihood of default or bankruptcy
  • Operations management: Predicting input usage and productive efficiency
  • Investment analysis: Predicting future changes in asset prices

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Sorting

  • A straightforward form of data mining is sorting
  • After compilation with various data fields, data can be sorted by any individual data fields
  • Can accomplish several useful tasks:
    • Identify duplicate entries
    • Identify transactions with round numbers
    • Identify gaps in data sequence (such as dates, check numbers, or invoice numbers
    • Identify matches in data fields (such as employees and vendors with the same name or contact information)

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Sorting

    • Compute category totals (such as total payments made to a specific vendor or employee or total payments for a specific expense category)
    • Identify matches in data fields (such as employees and vendors with the same name or contact information).
    • Highlight blanks in a field (or lack of data) in a particular data field (such as employees without a Social Security number or vendors without an address)
    • Identify inconsistencies among data fields (such as incompatible telephone numbers and addresses or back-dated checks)

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Ratio Analysis

  • Another simple form of data mining is the calculation of ratios for key observations in a data set
  • Used to identify variation and outliers within a data distribution
  • Commonly employed ratios:
    • Ratio of largest value to smallest value A larger ratio indicates greater variation in the data set
    • Ratio of largest value to second-largest value the relative size factor (RSF)
    • Ratio of smallest value to second-smallest value
    • Ratio of largest (or smallest) value to the mean

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Limitations of Data Mining

    • The efficiency of data mining can be evaluated in terms of the true signals it identifies (such as an error or fraud occurrence)
    • False positives or noise: Type I error
    • Failure to identify a true signal: Type II error
    • Trade-off between Type I and Type II errors ,Decreasing the occurrence of one increases the occurrence of the other
  • Tendency for forensic accountants to focus on findings consistent with working hypothesis
    • May ignore other relevant findings
  • Forensic accountant must be mindful of the fact that data mining may identify meaningless relationships and patterns

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Identify Examples of Data Analysis Software, and Explain the Advantages and Disadvantages of Each

Learning Objective 4

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Data Analysis Software

    • Basic programs: Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Access, which are included in the Microsoft Office suite that is distributed with many personal computers
    • Advantages
      • Affordability
      • Ease of use
      • Flexibility of application
    • Disadvantages
      • Allow data to be altered without record
      • Errors can be easily introduced
      • Cannot accommodate data in certain formats

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Excel or Access?

  • both are suitable for forensic accounting engagements that require data mining
  • Excel is more popular among practitioners
  • Access forces structure on data analysis project
    • Excel allows more flexibility
  • Access has a useful feature—database
    • Creates complete record of its contents and allows user to create explanatory notes

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Generalized Audit Software

  • Specialized software, known as generalized audit software (GAS), has been developed for use in auditing and fraud investigation engagements
  • GAS programs are designed to analyze financial data in an auditing environment
  • Generalized Audit is Software enables Auditors to have direct access to computerized records and to deal effectively with large quantities of data.
  • Generalized audit software (GAS) is the tool use by auditors to automate various audit tasks
  • Two common examples of GAS are
    • Audit Command Language (ACL)
    • Interactive Data Extraction Analysis (IDEA)
    • GAS programs are designed to analyze financial data

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�Two common examples of GAS are�

    • Audit Command Language (ACL)
  • A data analysis software program that helps
  • auditors remain current with changing technology.
  • Its primary usefulness lies in its ability to perform
  • analysis and audit tests on 100% of the data
  • available rather than merely sampling the data.
  • The ability to audit 100% of the available data
  • assists auditors with identifying potential fraud
  • patterns and data irregularities.

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�Two common examples of GAS are�

  • Interactive Data Extraction and Analysis (IDEA) is
  • a leading eAudit data-analytics software package.
  • IDEA provides audit, finance and compliance
  • professionals in industry and practice with an
  • efficient and effective solution for high
  • performance audits.
  • IDEA is also used by tax authorities throughout the
  • world (including the Revenue Commissioners) to
  • interrogate taxpayer transaction and system data.

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Generalized Audit Software can accomplish the following audit tasks:

  • Footing and balancing entire files or selected data items.
  • Selecting and reporting detailed data contained on files.
  • Selecting stratified statistical samples from data files.
  • Formatting results of tests into reports.
  • Printing confirmations in either standardized or special wording.
  • Screening data and selectively including or excluding items.
  • 7. Comparing two files and identifying any differences.
  • 8. Recalculating data fields.

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Generalized Audit Software

  • Advantages:
    • The primary advantage of these programs is their user-interface attributes customized for specific tasks
    • Specialized software programs address weaknesses of Microsoft Excel and Access
    • Ability to record analytics performed, creating audit trail
    • Relatively easy to learn and use
    • Improved efficiencies by automating manual procedures
    • Reduced risk by testing entire populations reducing reliance on sampling
    • GAS can be applied to wide variety of clients with
  • minimal customization

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Generalized Audit Software

Advantages:

    • This record is important for a number of reasons
    • First, it allows the forensic accountant to review the analysis that has already been completed, for the purpose of guiding future efforts and avoiding duplication of past efforts
    • Next, it facilitates the creation of a template that can be used in future engagements, another productivity-enhancing feature
    • Finally, a complete record of the data analysis process provides essential context for the results of the analysis

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Generalized Audit Software

    • Major disadvantages of GAS programs are their
    • High cost compared to basic programs and
    • The extensive training required to use them effectively.
    • A single-user license of IDEA or ACL costs several times more than Active Data for Excel (assuming that one already has Excel)
    • Thus, such programs are usually used in larger firms, where the cost can be shared among multiple users
    • A large user community also helps to minimize the need for formal training

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Explain Benford’s Law and Describe Specific Digital Analysis Tests

Learning Objective 5

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Digital Analysis—Benford’s Law

  • Digital analysis is funded on oppose intuitive observation that individual digits of multidigit numbers are not random, but follow a pattern
    • Describes expected frequencies of digits in numbers —that is, the probability that any given digit in a number will take a certain value
  • Posits that distribution of first digits is positively skewed, or more heavily weighted toward smaller numbers

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Applications of Benford’s Law

  • Number series must follow a geometric sequence in which each successive number is calculated as a fixed percentage increase over the previous number
    • Each successive number calculated as a fixed percentage increase over previous number
  • Many research studies have used Benford’s Law to examine various types of accounting data:
    • Net income: Analyzing net income data for New Zealand companies
    • Earnings per share
    • Income tax
    • Fraud detection:Nigrini (1994) was the first to use digital analysis for fraud detection

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Size of Data Set

  • Important consideration in the determination to employ a Benford test
    • Close conformity to Benford’s Law requires a large data set with numbers having at least four digits
    • The size of the data set is important because it is more difficult to identify significant deviations from Benford’s profile in small data sets

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